Investment Points
Steel:
The comprehensive price index of general steel increased by 1.35% month-on-month; demand has picked up slightly due to the development of infrastructure, and the average daily transaction volume of construction steel has increased by 27.41% year-on-year; supply is limited by the influence of the Winter Olympics, Paralympics, and the Two Sessions, and the output of crude steel is year-on-year -10.00%, the inventory is at a low level in the past three years, and the gross profit has declined under the pressure of rising raw materials. In the context of stabilizing the economy, the supply-side restrictions may be loosened. In terms of demand, we still need to continue to pay attention to the effect of stabilizing the economy. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the growing special steel field.
Industrial Metals:
In terms of aluminum, the spot price of LME aluminum was +2.01% month-on-month; the average spot price of SHFE aluminum was -0.88% month-on-month. The situation in Russia and Ukraine disrupts overseas supply, and the domestic supply side is constrained; the inventory side is at a low level; the price of raw materials on the raw material side has weakened due to the expected increase in alumina production capacity/recovery, but prebaked anodes have risen; the demand side is stabilizing the economy, photovoltaics, automobiles Lightweight can be guaranteed, and it is expected that the short-term aluminum price will run at a high level.
New energy metal:
The output of lithium carbonate increased by 46.15% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 115.92% year-on-year. Supply and demand continued to be tight, and the price of electric carbon/lithium hydroxide/industrial carbon increased by 12.00%/24.59%/12.79% month-on-month. In the short term, Talison began to increase volume in March, and SQM began to increase volume in June. It is expected that the lithium shortage will ease after March, but it is still tight, and lithium prices are expected to remain high.
Rare Earths:
At the oxide end, the price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide is -7.31%, and the price of heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide/terbium oxide is -7.17%/-6.95%, respectively. At the mine end, the price of medium yttrium and europium-rich ore was -4.99% month-on-month; the price of Shanghai non-ferrous rare earth carbonate ore was -7.30% month-on-month. On the magnetic material side, the price of NdFeB 50H is -4.35% compared to the previous month. The price of rare earth is on a downward trend, mainly due to: 1. The market transaction is light at high prices; 2. The situation in Russia and Ukraine may affect the expectation of demand. Under the high price, the transaction was lower than expected, and the supplier rationally lowered the price. In the short term, the price may fluctuate weakly under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
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