——Summary of the essence of the 2022 Public Fund Four Seasons Report ③: A one-sentence summary
I have probably read more than 200 copies of the Four Seasons Newspaper. The first two articles have extracted some essential points of view. The articles are relatively long and may be difficult to absorb.
In this article, I selected 66 managers with clear views, and summed up each of their views in one sentence, so that we can have a quick and comprehensive understanding of the market views of fund managers.
Most of these fund managers are my personal focus, as well as the fund managers in the 2023 equity TOP100 list selected by me and @点拉投资.
Some repeated points of view are not listed repeatedly, but only some representative, clear and sharp points of view are selected.
The compression may be my own subjective color, and it cannot fully represent the views of fund managers, and it is for reference only. At the end of the article, there is a list of my personal favorites for the 2022 Four Seasons Report
market judgment
Zhonggeng·Qiu Dongrong: Efforts under a low base are likely to exceed expectations. We should shift from low risk appetite to positive expectations of economic flexibility. The probability of both market confidence and fundamentals is increasing.
Zhong Geng Chen Tao: The short-term core of the policy is to stimulate market confidence and let the economic restart enter a virtuous circle.
Dongfanghong·Li Jing: The market will continue in 23 years, although the most flexible stage has passed.
Invesco Great Wall·Liu Yanchun: Unfavorable factors have reversed in the fourth quarter. The stock market is expected to usher in a new round of upward cycle. The recent valuation recovery is far from in place.
Cinda Australia and Asia Feng Mingyuan: We are at the starting point of a long-term bull market.
Harvest·Wu You: The bull market still needs the support of a clearer macro cycle or industrial trends, or structural opportunities; the more efficient economic trend method in the past few years may encounter greater challenges in the future, and domestic consumption is the most important medium-term important investment direction.
Suzaku·Liang Yuejun: The 23-year A-share slow bull trend is expected to continue.
Boshi Guojun: After three years of the epidemic, the strength of China’s economy is very obvious. The era of low interest rates in history may not return.
Guofu · Xu Lirong: I have a very positive view on the market in the next one to three years
Wan Jia·Zhang Heng: The market may turn bullish, and we are optimistic about the flexibility of brokerages in a bull market.
China-Canada Feng Hanjie: In the past six months, the domestic and international fundamentals have not shown too strong signs of improvement, and many international aspects are even still deteriorating significantly.
GF·Lin Yingrui: In 23 years, it will be difficult for us to obtain excess returns in direction judgment again, but we can remain optimistic about the expected return rate in the next two years.
China·Chang Yaqiao: I am optimistic about the bull market brought about by the comprehensive recovery of China’s economy. At the same time, the strong US dollar will collapse due to the epidemic, which will make emerging markets outperform US stocks.
style judgment
Great Wall·Liao Hanbo: Real estate is the key to economic stabilization and recovery. It is worth looking forward to the further implementation of real estate policies. After that, growth stocks will also present more investment opportunities.
Bank of Communications Liu Peng: I am more inclined to think that the government will look for new impetus for future economic growth while supporting the real estate industry. We are more willing to take advantage of the market’s shift towards value style to actively deploy growth.
Huaxia Li Xiaoyi (FOF): Before and after the Spring Festival, there is usually an obvious style switching window, and it is expected to change from the style of the large market to the style of small and medium-sized growth of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Bank of Communications Liu Bing (FOF): When economic expectations are relatively strong but have not yet been fulfilled, and policies are still increasing, you can pay attention to the value sector; with the confirmation of economic recovery and the recovery of market risk appetite, the growth style will be more flexible.
SDIC UBS·Shi Cheng: The economy is improving, and the value is set up to grow and sing. We are optimistic about growth, manufacturing and upstream resource products, and the continuous transfer of profits to the upstream has just begun.
CITIC Prudential·Wang Rui: Most of the short-term negative factors of growth stocks have landed, and the current price/performance ratio is very prominent. Next, the value may set up a classic market for growth and singing.
Harvest·Meng Xia: Guess the main line in 23 years is: recovery + safety.
E Fund·He Chongkai: Continue to be optimistic about the growth sector that benefits from the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure. There is still a lot of room for it, and the valuation is low.
Shenwan Lingxin Fu Juan: The performance elasticity and valuation elasticity of Value White Horse may be weaker than in 2017. Now we should pay more attention to growth stocks with economic recovery elasticity.
Harvest Tan Li: Track assets lack a margin of safety, and even if the performance is realized, there is no room for yield. At the same time, high prosperity will lead to deterioration of the competitive landscape.
Yinhua·Li Xiaoxing: I am generally optimistic in 23 years, so I am not so active in the allocation of value-based defensive targets. I still concentrate my positions on growth stocks that maintain high-speed growth in performance.
Bank of Communications Yang Jinjin: If the economic fundamentals recover strongly, it will be a blue-chip market. If there is a new economic track that can accommodate a large amount of funds, it will be a growth market. If there is no one, there is a high probability of shocks and recovery.
Bank of Communications·Tian Yulong: It is expected that the blue chip stocks represented by consumption will recover in the first quarter, and the growth style may regain its dominance in the second quarter.
Yinhua·Fang Jian: In 23 years, the market will no longer be “one thriving”, but “a hundred flowers will bloom together”.
TEDA Manulife·Wang Peng: The current market is driven by weak reality and strong policy expectations, but the stock price will not always be driven by policy expectations, but will gradually change to the ability to realize performance growth.
CEIBS Blue Well-off: The valuation of value stocks is low, the fundamentals are turning positive, and there are also a large number of undervalued stocks in small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks; optimistic about the recovery of domestic domestic demand and the continued global inflation.
Peace and love before God: The strength and sustainability of the economic recovery may be the key variable. If the strength and duration of the economic recovery exceed expectations, the style will be more biased towards value, consumption, and core assets, and vice versa, it will be more biased toward growth.
Dacheng·Hanchuang: 23 years should be a relatively balanced year, because the economic recovery is relatively clear, and all walks of life have opportunities, so it may show a style of industry rotation or more moderate rises in stocks.
Steady growth
Boshi·Jin Shengzhe: The main direction of attack in 23 years is steady growth, and the confidence in steady growth has received multiple blessings, either the reality has changed from weak to strong, or the expected strength has been strengthened.
Invesco Great Wall · Han Wenqiang: “Steady growth” is still the current macro theme. With the promotion of wide credit, the stock market will go out of a market similar to 2017.
Yuan Xinyongfeng·Fan Yan: The visibility of real estate sales in 23 years was low, and we did not shift our allocation to the real estate industry chain.
Dongfanghong·Zhou Yun: When the economy recovers to a reasonable level, some industries that are more closely related to the domestic macro economy may perform better.
CEIBS·Wang Pei: Stimulating domestic demand and stimulating investment may become the main means of stabilizing growth, and we need to face market changes more actively.
Hua’an·Liu Changchang: The two clues of steady growth and consumption will run through 23 years of economic development.
growing up
Huaxia Li Yan: The new energy vehicle industry chain and the semiconductor industry chain are the two most important industrial upgrading directions for China at present.
Penghua·Meng Hao: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is not low, and the demand will be obviously affected by the overall automobile market. The current industry situation is not clear.
Penghua Yan Siqian: The profit suppression of mid- and downstream enterprises will be eased. After the domestic economy leads the world and resumes growth, for a longer period of sustained growth, we must return to transformation, upgrading and innovative growth, and we must pay attention to the value of leading enterprises.
Harvest Mengxia: We are optimistic about computers, and we will further increase our holdings on the basis of multiple consecutive periods of overweighting.
Nanfang·Zhong Yun: The characteristics of the theme game in the fourth quarter of each year will be more obvious. Under the stock game, growth sectors such as the New Half Army have become sectors that have been withdrawn. We believe that the fundamentals of the growth sector have not changed much.
Consumption
E Fund Wuyang: Benefiting from the post-epidemic recovery of travel and other consumer industries is our most promising direction in the medium term.
E Fund · Yang Jiawen: The market is currently too optimistic about consumption and travel. Long-term factors such as fertility rate, population size, and disposable income are ignored by the market in the short term. Instead, we should be more cautious about consumption.
Huaan·Wang Bin: Domestic demand and security may be one of the clues for the new year. In terms of rhythm, priority should be given to mandatory consumption, and then gradually transition to optional consumption.
Bank of Communications·Han Weijun: In the next six months, the fundamentals of overall consumption will not have much upward flexibility, and there will still be a sequence of recovery, first high-end liquor, medical beauty, gold jewelry, high-end cosmetics, etc., and consumer services in the second half of the year.
CEIBS·Cheng Yuxuan: In 23 years, we are more optimistic about domestic consumption. After the epidemic, consumption in China will show a trend of low first and then high, and the prosperity will gradually pick up.
Ruiyuan·Zhao Feng: If the economy does not start with investment first, and then drive residents’ expectations of future income growth, the current recovery of consumption is more of a restoration and cannot be sustained.
Changxin·Gaoyuan: Among the three carriages, the growth rate of exports reflecting external demand may slow down, investment reflecting domestic demand is expected to maintain a steady and slight increase, and consumption is more likely to be restored.
Baoying·Chen Jinwei: The investment opportunity of “smashing holes and filling them again” is not the optimal solution under the overall underestimated situation. Our most optimistic industries are computers, electronics, and medicine.
Yinhua·Bo Guanhui: This structural change from material consumption to service consumption is also the direction of future consumption upgrades.
medicine
Fuguo·Yu Yang: In the absence of new industrial trends, it is not easy to obtain a significant excess. We have allocated more medicines with more rigid demand.
Hua An·Liu Xiao: The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at a historically low level, and the demand is resilient. With the normalization of the epidemic, we are optimistic about the investment value of the pharmaceutical sector.
Rongtong Wanminyuan: In 23 years, the pharmaceutical sector is expected to usher in an increase in valuation, driven by the dual drive of fundamental improvement and policy marginal improvement
ICBC·Zhao Bei: In 23 years, the demand for pharmaceutical consumption will show a good recovery trend.
Dongfanghong·Jiang Qi: I am optimistic about the development of the pharmaceutical industry and the sustainability of the market in 23 years.
other
CEIBS·Yuan Weide: Upstream industries with limited supply in pro-cyclical industries, including non-ferrous metals and energy, will bottom out in global demand and rebound in 2023, and the commodity price center may rise again.
Huatai Bairui Dong Chen: Overseas recession and looser monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may still provide a favorable environment for the gold sector.
E Fund · Qihe: The cost of raw materials and logistics costs have dropped significantly, and the global interest rate environment has improved, which is conducive to improving the operating environment of the manufacturing industry.
Huaxia Xia Yunlong: When the market is good, people will usually buy imaginative ones, and the cycle is generally not popular, and everyone will return to the mainstream.
Nuoan Cai Yubin: With the increase of leverage and the improvement of the strategic position of national security, undervalued central enterprises are expected to usher in revaluation.
Bank of Communications Shen Nan: As the management proposes to explore the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, the long-term discount of state-owned enterprises is expected to gradually weaken or even eliminate.
CEIBS Luo Jiaming: The Hong Kong stock market rebounded this time mainly because the two major factors that suppressed the Hong Kong stock market have been completely resolved.
Nanfang·Wang Shicong: We believe that capital will flow into China rapidly. The fundamentals, valuation, and liquidity of Hong Kong stocks will fluctuate greatly, which is applicable to both down cycles and up cycles. We are positive and optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the next 1-2 years.
Guofu Di Xinghua: Buffett’s two big purchases of technology stocks appeared in 2018 and 2022 respectively.
E Fund · Zhang Kun: Any investment system has its limitations, understand the limitations of your own methods, give up perfection, and keep calm.
Conclusion: Writing this article is not easy. If you find the article useful, please give me a thumbs up to support it.
Finally, I will give a list of the four seasons that I think are well written. You can go to the original text and have a look: Zhang Kun, Guo Jun, Yang Ruiwen, Li Xiaoxing, Qiu Dongrong, Wu Chuanyan, Chen Jinwei, Yang Jinjin, Xia Yunlong, Zhong Yun , Zhao Feng (in no particular order)
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$CEIBS Times Pioneer(F001938)$ $CEIBS Medical and Health Mix A(F003095)$ $Huaan Culture, Sports and Health Flexible Configuration Mix A(F001532)$
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