The difficult 2022 has finally passed. This year, I have experienced too much. Although Binjiang Service , China Education Holdings , which has the most heavy positions, and Yiyi Pharmaceutical and Gujing Gong B , which have the most heavy positions, performed well, they still encountered the second stage of entering the stock market. The second largest loss in 16 years, and it has never been lost for two consecutive years, with a total loss of 20.27%, of which A-share accounts (including Hong Kong Stock Connect) lost 26.38%, and Hong Kong stock accounts (excluding Hong Kong Stock Connect) lost 1.4%. The total rate of return since 1997 has retreated from 88.1 times at the end of April 2021 to 73.9 times at the end of that year, and then to 58.95 times at the end of last year. Fortunately, the top two heavyweight stocks rebounded sharply after the festival. Losses were reduced a lot.
Attachment: 26-year yield list.
To achieve such a poor return in 2022, there are not only objective reasons for poor macro environment and poor market environment, but also subjective reasons. There are mainly two mistakes.
One is that they are not in awe of the market enough and are too optimistic. In the 2021 investment summary, it is judged that the overall valuation of A shares tends to be reasonable. The current bubble market does not have the conditions to enter a big bear market, and the view that the A-share market will continue to slow down in the future has not changed. Facts have proved that this judgment is completely wrong, this year is completely a big bear market,
The second is that the harshness of Hong Kong stocks is not estimated enough. I have been optimistic about Hong Kong stocks since 2020, and started to increase my position in 2021. At the end of the year, I judged that Hong Kong stocks have fallen into the 18th hell. As a result, I found out last year that hell is far more than that. Eighteen floors. The Hang Seng Index has fallen for five consecutive years, hitting a new low in 16 years, and has fallen below the net assets. At the lowest valuation, it was only 8 times, and the price-to-book ratio was 0.8. It is extremely rare in the world that the index falls below the net assets. The decline in Hong Kong stocks has actually surpassed the 2008 financial crisis.
Last year, I also missed two good opportunities to change positions.
The first time was in October. When my favorite liquor stocks fell sharply, I only bought a small amount of Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao. I imagined that I could increase my position after another sharp drop. I missed the opportunity to buy more liquor stocks again. This is excessive greed. Performance, I remember that at the end of September 2018, when the liquor stocks led by Kweichow Moutai fell sharply, I bought heavily, and besides focusing on buying Kweichow Moutai, I also bought a package of other liquor stocks.
The second time was also around October, when the Hong Kong stock market entered the craziest decline, when the whole market fell into despair, although I did not panic, but at the time when the position in the Hong Kong stock market was already heavy, I did not continue to increase my position substantially. It’s just that a small number of positions have been added, and the opportunity that comes once in many years is not well grasped.
The current stock holdings according to market value are: Binjiang Service , China Education Holdings, National Defense ETF, Aerospace Vision, Hang Seng Technology ETF, Fudan Microelectronics, China Resources Power, Ziguang Guowei, New Higher Education Group, Hayi Pharmaceutical, AVIC Optoelectronics, Mindray Medical care and Jinmao services.
Among them, Binjiang Service and China Education Holdings are my first and second largest holdings respectively. The two currently account for about 35% of the holdings. The holdings are still concentrated in the three industries of military industry, property, and higher education, consumption, chips, medical care, and so on. New energy also has positions, but not many.
2022 has passed, and 2023 is approaching. How to look at the investment in the new year? To answer this question, we must first review the reasons that caused the big bear market last year.
1. The economic downturn caused by the widespread spread of the epidemic.
2. Crackdowns on education and training, the Internet, and real estate have resulted in poor market expectations, and the confidence of private entrepreneurs has been severely hit.
3. The Russo-Ukrainian War.
4. Inflation, US interest rate hike, RMB devaluation.
The biggest impact on the stock market is the impact of the epidemic, followed by the bursting of the real estate bubble.
At present, the epidemic situation no longer insists on dynamic clearing, which is basically completely liberalized. Although after the liberalization, people have greatly reduced activities in public places out of prudence, and the economy will perform worse in the first few months. After the peak, the economy will return to normal. It is expected that the economy will show a low first and then a high next year.
The rectification of the real estate industry since last year was obviously overstretched, causing the real estate industry to fall off a cliff, and private enterprises defaulted on a large scale. Now the government is taking a series of measures to correct the deviation. Although the cost is a bit high, it has already begun to correct the deviation.
The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War has become weaker and weaker. China has benefited to some extent. Many European industries have been transferred to China, and Russia has a stable and cheap energy supply. Forced into a two-polar world.
As for the interest rate hike and RMB depreciation caused by US inflation, with the monthly decline of US inflation, the top of the US dollar cycle is looming. return to emerging markets.
The economy can improve, coupled with the sufficient liquidity in the market, the low interest rate environment, and the lack of other investment channels for ordinary people. The most important thing is that the current market valuation is low enough. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has returned to 5 years ago. There is no reason for the stock market to continue Pessimistic, the most difficult moment may have passed.
In the new year, I am still optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market as always, although the market has recently ushered in a wave of rebound after a long period of decline. However, the overall market valuation is still less than 10 times, which is far from a reasonable valuation in the normal market. With the introduction of the domestic “steady growth” policy and the gradual loosening of the regulatory environment, market sentiment has improved, and Hong Kong stocks will surely usher in a valuation restoration. I believe in valuation and common sense. I currently have a heavy position in Hong Kong stocks. Because of the recent decline in A shares and the rebound in Hong Kong stocks, the value of Hong Kong stocks accounts for more than half of the market value of my holdings.
In terms of sectors, we still focus on military industry, Hong Kong stock property and higher education, because their investment logic has not changed. What these three sectors have in common is that they are all counter-cyclical, which basically has little to do with the economy. Of course, among them The real estate sector should be premised on the financial health of the major shareholders and the company’s relatively good performance. At the same time, we will also pay attention to investment opportunities in consumption, medicine, new energy, and chips.
Regarding the military industry, the current situation, internationally, China and the United States are decoupling and entering into an all-out confrontation, which will only become more intense in the future, and the domestic economy will slow down. In the current environment, there will be no subversive changes in investment logic, and the military industry is one of them. The certainty, sustainability, and growth of the industry are good, the competition pattern is stable, independent controllability and domestic substitution are accelerating. The reform of state-owned enterprises in the military industry and equity incentives are continuing to advance. Moreover, military trade and domestic large aircraft are worth looking forward to.
Of course, the shortcomings of the military industry are obvious; (1) Lack of transparency, and the transparency of a single company is poor. Response: disperse the target, or invest in the military index. (2) Some companies have high gross profit margins and have downside risks.
I have already said too much about property, so I won’t repeat it. What needs to be repeated is that the most critical factor for investing in property stocks is that the parent company has no risk of thunderstorms.
Regarding the higher education unit, the “Regulations for the Implementation of the Private Education Promotion Law of the People’s Republic of China” in April 2021, and the “Vocational Education Law of the People’s Republic of China” in July 2021 have all given policy support to private higher education. The higher education industry has high barriers to entry, good competition, and good cash flow. The industry is still extremely fragmented, and the future space is huge. It’s just that the recent rebound has been relatively strong, and it faces adjustment risks.
Everything in the past is a prologue, saying goodbye to the old year and blessing the new year. The investment road is not only full of flowers, but also full of thorns. Only by working hard when others are not working hard, being patient when others are impatient, and being strong when others are desperate, can you survive in the stock market for a long time.
$China Education Holdings(00839)$ $Binjiang Service(03316)$ $Aerospace Hongtu(SH688066)$
There are 45 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/6930223813/239430489
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.