Before summing up, I would like to remind readers as a matter of routine. The opinions and pictures in this article represent only me and have nothing to do with my company. This article does not recommend stocks, does not sell products, and is not a platform for any stocks or funds. It is just me Personal investment views and work perception, buying and selling also need to make independent decisions and be responsible for their own profits and losses!
@今日话题@雪球达人秀@雪球创作者中心#2022Investment Summary# $Vanke A(SZ000002)$ $OCT A(SZ000069)$ $Shengnong Development(SZ002299)$
Today is January 2, 2023. At the beginning of the new year, I would like to wish all golfers a Changhong account in 2023!
First of all, I think it will be very difficult to make money in 2022. It is much more difficult than in 2018. Why? The data I have seen is that a large number of investors have entered the market in large numbers, concentrated in the wave of value investment led by Moutai in the first half of 2021 and the wave of growth investment led by Ningde Times in the second half of 2021. The two waves of speculators in the past two years The loss rate is less than 30%, and it may reach 50%. However, in the 1:9 market in 2017, there were not many people who made money, so the effect of making money was not obvious at that time. The end has not yet recovered, so most new investors have not yet entered the market! And 2020-2021 is a big year for public and private placements, how to buy and how to make money, resulting in a particularly large number of people entering the market in 2021, and the last few waves are set on the top of the stage, so the effect of losing money in 2022 is actually stronger than that in 2018 of!
Because of this, I think the experience of failure in 2022 is more worth cherishing and summarizing!
This year, based on my own research, I simulated and recorded it on WIND, and then compared the returns of the main portfolios on Xueqiu. Although I missed a lot of opportunities to simulate rebalancing due to work, it is still an answer sheet after all. The degree of deviation Not too big: In 2022, the annual income of the simulated portfolio is about 3%. The simulated portfolio temporarily holds 3 stocks that it often tracks, and it is relatively dispersed. Control the original intention of retracement as much as possible!
In 2022, due to the support of various black swans, the A-share market has basically been bearish for a whole year. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 15% for the whole year, and the CSI 300 has fallen by 21%. down about 30%
Data source: Straight Flush
Therefore, it is very difficult to make money in the market this year. I even think that the difficulty of investing in the whole year of 2022 will be even more difficult than that of 2018. Among the investors I can observe, there are less than one who can maintain profitability throughout the year. 1/100, the 1 person out of 100 people who can maintain profitability is also because the position is under control. It happened to be lucky to increase the position in early November, and the stock he held finally rose back. This year’s rare obvious investment style can Winner!
Of course, few do not mean none. Those who hold coal stocks throughout the year, as well as some stocks with independent market prices, can also obtain positive returns, but the luck of stock selection is also very important!
For example, there are only 12 stocks in my snowball self-selection that have positive returns this year. By the end of the year, I didn’t expect Poly to have a “positive return” of 0.22% for the whole year. Among the real estate sectors that everyone despises most, Binjiang and Huafa are among the stocks I pay attention to. The first and third increase in the whole year:
1. About stocks
This year’s overall research still revolves around real estate and some cyclical sectors. This year, we also joined in the research of Sunner’s development in farming and Zuoli Pharmaceutical in traditional Chinese medicine. Some of them were recommended by friends, and some were accidentally discovered in stages. The performance is as follows:
1. Poly Development
The cumulative increase of the former re-rights for the whole year is 0.22%, and the current valuation is 0.99PB, which is 20% lower than the valuation after the close of 2021. This year, the real estate industry has experienced a large-scale thunderstorm followed by regulation to rescue the market. The stocks of the entire industry have also fluctuated greatly. However, the warm wind blows frequently in policies, and the performance of leading companies in the industry has also shown resilience throughout the year!
2. Vanke A
The cumulative decline in the previous year was -2.15%, and the current valuation is 0.9PB, which is still 4% of the historical quantile point in the past 10 years. The relative and absolute valuations are both low. Although it is very difficult for Vanke’s profitability to return to the peak period of 40 billion yuan in the short term, it is still possible to return to the level of about 30 billion yuan again!
3. OCT A
The cumulative decline of the previous restoration of rights for the whole year was -23%. The current valuation is 0.57PB, and the valuation is at the historical quantile point of the past 10 years. The valuation is still at the lowest level in history. I have to say that OCT is my long-term There is not one of the worst performers in tracking stocks! In fact, from the end of 2021, OCT has entered a period of complete thunderstorms. The tourism business and the real estate business are double-killed. With the addition of Baoneng, an excellent shareholder, it is impossible for the stock price to perform well! The third quarterly report in 2022 relied on government subsidies and barely made a loss. Whether this situation can be improved in 2023 depends on the company’s own fortune. Apart from being very low, OCT is not a good choice!
4. Shengnong Development
The whole year before the restoration of rights is basically flat. Because of the characteristics of large performance fluctuations and obvious cycles, the aquaculture industry is still an industry worth following as long as the time is long enough and the rhythm is accurate. Sunner was recommended by a friend, but the stock price was less than 20, and the valuation was also at a historically low level. Later, I continued to pay attention to Sunner’s monthly reports, and my friends often shared information with me, so I didn’t follow it that much. Tight, but for the feeling of cyclical stocks, I think Sunner’s cycle is not over yet, and I will continue to pay attention to it in 2023!
There are other companies such as: Zuo Li Pharmaceutical, Oupai Home Furnishing, Evergreen, etc. Basically, they pay attention in stages. Some of them pay attention and the stock price rises before they have time to study it. Others see the real estate sector as a whole killing logic and killing performance. At that time, they were more decisive. I gave up studying 90% of the upstream and downstream industries of real estate. Looking back now, my judgment is still relatively accurate!
2. Outlook for 2023:
For 2023, I am still cautiously optimistic:
1. The optimism lies in the fact that in 2022 there will be enough falls and enough risks will be released, and it is still very rare that so many black swans fly out at the same time in 2022. If there are no more swans in 2023, or the existing black swans The impact of the swan has weakened, so from the current market valuation perspective, at least a pulse-shaped recovery in the market in 2023 is expected, especially in the first half of the year!
2. Caution lies in whether 2023 is a continuation of 2022, and whether it will be a strong recovery or a weak recovery after the epidemic is released. In fact, the current judgment is based on stones, and it will ultimately be reflected in the data. If the data is not as expected If the market is so good, then the market will fluctuate at best, and the profit-making effect of a trending upward trend will hardly appear!
3. For sector and industry opportunities, I personally tend to look for industries with recovery opportunities at the bottom of the cycle. The experience of the past 10 years has also made me deeply aware: in A-shares where financial kneelers gather, don’t believe in so-called value and To grow up, if you are serious, you will definitely lose in a mess. When the obvious bubble appears, you should know that you can accept it as soon as you see it. And when everyone spurns you, you can calmly look for obvious opportunities. In reality, I can see this kind of example more than a dozen times a year. You must make the chips in your hand high enough and cheap enough, otherwise, without information and capital advantages, how can you survive in this market? Investors who make a living by trading are really one in a million!
In 2023, I look forward to reading more history books, exercising more, and getting to know more positive people!
There are 14 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/1611884062/239052092
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.