I use the investment thinking of the primary market to do the secondary market: that is, to find companies that may grow into a huge track in the future, but are still only embryonic or early-stage companies with great potential.
Some people may say: Isn’t everyone like this?
In fact, no, my investment methodology will make me miss about 90% of the money-making opportunities in A shares . For example, the real estate industry definitely does not meet the above standards, because no investor in the primary market will invest in an early real estate-related company. Another example is that many cyclical companies that are facing a reversal of the A-share dilemma cannot catch opportunities in more traditional industries such as chemicals, building materials, home furnishing, and agricultural fertilizers, even if they know there are opportunities, they dare not make heavy moves.
But in the past, opportunities such as lithium batteries, electronic cigarettes, photovoltaics, and innovative drugs were within my circle of competence.
Having written so much is actually talking about position management and investment determination . I have always believed that the secondary market is a reflection of real life. No matter how smart a person is, it is impossible to make all the money in 365 lines, and some years just don’t belong to you and you should sit on the bench. In addition, people who have been in the second level for a long time have a feeling: obviously found a bull stock at the beginning, why the position is not heavy or sold in advance? In fact, the essence here is what I said above, because the “bull stock” you bought at the time did not conform to your values or circle of competence, so you didn’t hold it. So I think, rather than directly talking about the company or the code, if you want to really make money in the stock market, you must tap your own circle of competence and investment values . And according to my observation, the masters of Snowball all have their own methodologies, for example, some are good at doing dilemma reversals, some are good at doing cycles, and some are good at doing booms.
Under this kind of investment thinking, another investment insight of mine is: the importance of finding Beta is far greater than finding Alpha . Say two cases:
The first one is in Xueqiu. I remember that there was a super hot post after the bull market in 2015: There is a big V, please tell us the code of the 10-fold stock in the next 5 years and the reason. There were thousands of replies to this post, and I read them all. According to the aesthetic hot posts at the time, there were Sanju Environmental Protection, Guanghuan Xinwang, UF, etc. Some people said Yuanwanggu, Wangsu Technology, Oriental Garden, etc. Wait. But what impresses me the most is that the real person who said it was Ganfeng Lithium Industry, and the others, whether it is big data, cloud computing, or the Internet, are not right. But there is more than one Ganfeng Lithium Industry with a 10-fold share in lithium batteries.
The second is a case I personally experienced. I investigated many listed companies in Shenzhen during 2016-18, and my experience was that Guolian’s corporate management capabilities were far superior to any photovoltaic lithium battery company at that time. According to any financial institution at that time All standards should support the fruit chain rather than others, because apart from feeling like a small workshop management, photovoltaic companies even have financial problems. But after the industry became popular, those companies were looked down upon before, but all the companies in Guolian were cut in half.
In fact, what I want to understand here is what kind of beta we are in in 2023 and what track should we pay attention to?
I think 2023-2024 should be defined as a “post-epidemic, post-new energy” era, that is, the “AirPods” period of investment rather than the “iPhone” period .
How to understand? The “iPhone” period refers to that as long as you are a mobile phone maker, whether it is a complete machine or parts, as long as you catch it, you are a bull stock, and it doesn’t matter if you don’t catch the leader, everyone is n times the stock. The “AirPods” period refers to the mobile Internet opportunities still exist, but only a few such as Goertek and Luxshare Precision can make it out. For example, 2020-2021 is the honeymoon period for new energy investment. Basically, if you get the concept, it will rise.
Beginning in 2025, I am optimistic about the emergence of a new wave of technological revolution and intelligent interactive software and hardware systems that will truly change people’s lives with Metaverse, digital humans, AI, and autonomous driving. Investment Opportunities.
This is also the reason why I think there will only be structural opportunities this year, and it is also the reason why I am optimistic about consumer medical care, new consumption habits, large storage, HJT, 4680, distributed optical storage, etc., which will be analyzed later.
Finally, I hope that in the new year, there will be more exchanges with friends who share the same investment values as me. ![[加油]](http://js.xueqiu.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_05_struggle.png "[come on]"){kind=small}
, and jointly discover 10-fold stocks in the growth track ![[赚大了]](http://js.xueqiu.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_06_money.png "[make big money]"){kind=small}
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