In the Spring Festival of 2023, all parts of the country are full of joy, and people everywhere follow the crowd. I have always been based on the principle of not thinking about places with many people. During the Spring Festival for a few days, I faced the wall at home and thought about my past, quietly thinking about the trend of China’s economy and stock market this year.
Consider first the economic trends in China.
In the first quarter of 2023, due to the high consumption enthusiasm during the Spring Festival, it is expected that tourism, transportation, hotels, restaurants, movies, and credit card consumption will recover strongly in the first quarter. However, due to the severe loss of vitality in the past few years, the consumption of durable goods (cars, houses, and home appliances) will remain sluggish. Due to the decrease in government revenue from land sales, government investment in stimulating economic growth will also be weak. Superimposed with peripheral stagflation, exports still face huge challenges. Therefore, in the first quarter of 2023, there will be opportunities for explosive recovery in some industries, but there are still great uncertainties in the overall economy.
If there is no new epidemic in the first quarter or this year, personal consumption and business investment will gradually recover later, and China’s economy will recover slowly this year. If there is a new round of epidemics, the situation will be more serious.
In order to cope with the complex economic situation, the chamber pot of real estate is indispensable, but to take out the chamber pot again, a new method is still needed, that is the bull market!
This year, there is a new trend in the stock market, which is the large-scale inflow of foreign capital in the short term. This part of funds includes both short-term speculation and recovery funds, and long-term optimistic funds for China’s core assets. The combination of the two has led to the recent stock market situation. This is a very good opportunity to stimulate the economy.
Therefore, I expect that in the first quarter or even the first half of the year, the Chinese stock market will replicate the big market in 2015, and there will be a wave of short-term fast market under the expectation of recovery. Only the short-term fast money-making effect can attract many idle funds from society to enter the market. In fact, there are a lot of deposits deposited in the bank at present, just take advantage of this opportunity to make a big move in the stock market. The advantage of this is that when everyone makes quick money in the stock market, they will spend it, even high-end consumption, such as buying a house, buying a car, changing mobile phones, and changing home appliances. Houses, cars, mobile phones, and home appliances are the four major industries with relatively long industrial chains. After consumption of these, the entire industrial chain will be revived. alive. Let’s take a look at the second and third years after the big bull market in 2007 and 2015. Are Chinese cars and houses very easy to sell? Therefore, in order to save the economy, a short, smooth and fast bull market is what the top management hopes to see. At the same time, under the background of the big bull market, local SASACs can take the opportunity to reduce some stocks, especially companies with poor long-term returns, and cash out to raise funds for government expenditures.
In addition, the current international situation is very complicated, and some people say that they will continue to besiege China this year. If we want to continue to suppress China, financial means are essential. To hit China with financial means, we must first inflate the bubble in China’s stock market, and then deliver a fatal blow. Therefore, no matter what the reason is for foreign capital to buy wildly, they must first do a wave of aggressiveness.
Therefore, the entry of foreign capital this time is only the fuse. Later, with the emergence of the money-making effect, social funds led by funds will start a wave of relatively large money-grabbing market. From the second half of the year, as the economy returns to normalization, part of the profit-making funds will begin to withdraw from the stock market, return to industry or buy a house or car to enjoy life. Therefore, the stock market will have a trend of high first and then low. I estimate that this year’s stock market high will appear in early May.
Based on the above, I am cautiously optimistic about China’s economy this year; I am strongly optimistic about the stock market, but only in a short-term, flat, fast, explosive bull market. Therefore, this year, capable investors can let go of their hands and feet and strive to harvest more leeks; incompetent investors will become other people’s leeks and be eliminated. When everyone goes in to fight, please think clearly which category you belong to.
$China Merchants Bank(SH600036)$ $Yangtze River Power(SH600900)$ $China Mobile(SH600941)$
There are 56 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/8164125924/240638683
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.