22 years have passed, and my return is -1.18%. This rate of return is unsatisfactory, but it is stronger than the index. Positions are as shown above
1. Position changes and reasons for this month
This month, China Taiping increased its position on the grounds that the idea of real estate becoming a pillar industry is to ensure financial security, and the time bomb of bank insurance has been dismantled. In order to develop the economy well next year, water release is a must. As the water release progresses, it is possible to usher in buffaloes similar to those in 2014. On the other hand, the release of water will form inflation expectations, which will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds in the future. Since the performance of life insurance is affected by the 750-day moving average of 10-year government bonds, life insurance will form expectations of an inflection point in performance.
3. Lessons learned this year
1. Missed coal stocks at the beginning of the year
At an offline gathering at the beginning of the year, when I was talking about the benefits of container shipping stocks, another friend said that shipping stocks with unstable profits are not as good as Yitai, which has a price-earnings ratio of three times. I think what he said is very reasonable, but he did not continue. I worked hard to study the stocks of the coal industry, which caused me to miss the coal stock market for 22 years.
2. Missed COSCO at the beginning of the year
At the beginning of the year, I read a research report on the shipping industry. When it came to oil transportation, it mentioned that the new cargo volume of oil transportation had reached the lowest level in history. For a moment, I felt similar to the former Haikong. However, the feeling is just the feeling, and if there is no further in-depth research, I will miss COSCO Shipping Energy.
3. I missed the opportunity to invest in convertible bonds. When I met with offline stock gods in Nan’an in the first half of the year, one of my friends reminded me of the opportunity to invest in convertible bonds. I thought it was an opportunity at the time, but I didn’t continue to study it.
4. Various negative statements about COSCO Shipping Holdings have not stopped this year, but Haikong has also given me the opportunity to exit the warehouse. From February to March 22, Haikong H also approached the historical high, and fell in April. Breaking the 60-day line, I don’t know what I was thinking, and I also missed the opportunity to reduce COSCO H.
5. When the pharmaceutical stocks were at their lowest this year, it was written that pharmaceutical stocks could be deployed, but they did not buy them.
6. At the beginning of the year, there was no prediction and preparation for the Fed’s unexpected interest rate hike.
I used to be very keen, and when I felt an opportunity, I wrote it down to find information and search for research. In 22 years I became insensitive and lazy. The most important thing is that I no longer focus on myself. The reason for all this is my own fault. After watching “Annual Comedy Contest”, I watched “Summer of the Band” and “Summer of the Band 2”. Inspired literary and artistic youths to write novels, including “Xining Past Events: Sally’s Garden”. It also conceives a follow-up writing plan. This feeling is that the old house is on fire and it is out of control. If value investing is my other wife, then I have already cheated. This mental distraction is finally reflected in the rate of return. Buffett once said that the biggest advantage of investing is focus. I have realized how difficult it is to maintain focus.
Graham’s talent is no less than Buffett’s, but because of his various hobbies, his wealth is far inferior to Buffett’s. In the new year, I have to calm down and put all my spare energy on investing.
Everyone is versatile, but everyone’s time and energy determine that he can only devote his limited time and energy to one thing, and do it to the extreme. Not everyone is like Bohr, who won the Nobel Prize in Physics and was selected as a football player in the national team.
4. In 2022, in the face of the sharp fluctuations in the market this year, how do you calm down your inner resentment? How to survive the difficult period of investment?
Investing depends on three points of technology and seven points of mentality. A stable mentality is very important for making money.
Many stock markets are in a downturn, and many people are restless and even have mental breakdowns. Some people feel that this time is different, that the stock market will never get better, and the economy will never get better. As I said before, many people think that they have to see before they have an idea, but in fact, they have to have an idea before they see. For example, some people now feel that this time is different, so they will look at events that can prove that this time is different, and don’t let inner delusions interfere with your vision. The 22-year decline is no different from previous bear markets, which will eventually end and usher in a bull market. Every time it’s the same, every time it’s different.
At the time when she was most pessimistic, Li Bei wrote a passage to the effect that, as everyone’s expectations were pessimistic, hesitant people sold assets one after another. As the index fell, everyone became more pessimistic, but at a certain stage, no matter how pessimistic the news, The stock market can’t go down. Because those who hesitated were all sold out, and everyone had no bargaining chips to sell, so there was nothing to lose. Lin Bo also said that if the market index falls to a certain price-earnings ratio, such as below 5, the index will passivate the news, and no matter how bad the news is, it will not cause a decline. At the bottom, everyone smashed it out in a panic. Everyone has finished smashing the goods in their hands, so there is nothing to smash.
As I said before, more than ten years of investment experience tells me that no matter when you leave the market, you can’t leave the market at the bottom anyway. For example, when the Hang Seng Index hits a record high of 14597, stock selection is meaningless. If you buy anything, you will make money in the future.
No matter how we make money for ourselves, this is a matter of no regrets. We make money for ourselves, so we have to endure related hardships.
5. In 2022, what new theories and skills did you learn during the investment process? What good investment articles or books impressed you?
Read “Principles” and “Principles 2” by Raidalio, Rogers’ “Age of Crisis”, and watched and listened to many videos and audios of Li Bei. I feel very inspired. Although there have been many black swans this year, under the background of the long-term historical cycle, it seems that the occurrence of these things seems to be a logical occurrence. History is a good thing, retelling history can deduce the future.
6. This year’s harvest
In October of this year, the stock market reached its darkest moment. The Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong stock market was below 15,000 points. It’s no different than a bear market, it’s all going to end and a bull market will come.”
After passing forty, my mentality suddenly became peaceful. There was always a kind of resentment in the past, but suddenly it disappeared, and I felt that everything in the past was the best arrangement.
When I was young, when I encountered different opinions, I always wanted to rush to refute others. Wanting to prove me right and others wrong. Now I understand that there is a “Bao Bu Bu” in everyone’s heart. When encountering other people’s opinions, we must habitually think “no, no” to prove our sense of existence. This is what we want to avoid. People who are two or three years old You can talk, but it takes a lifetime to learn to listen.
Stock investment is a market where a few people make money and most people lose money. This means that the majority of people have wrong ideas in the stock market. If you want to make money, you must be a minority and think against the crowd. But for ordinary people, to be against the crowd, one must get used to disapproval, refutation, and questioning of the majority. This is difficult for ordinary people. Without the sense of identity of the majority, how can we get a sense of personal identity? This has to be endured and endured. Get used to being disapproved by others.
Professor Yan Ning once said that life is divided into three stages, input, proof, and output. From 10 years to 17 years, I studied various value investment books, research reports, and brushed snowballs. From 17 years to 21 years, I just proved that I wrote articles on snowballs, received various interviews, and received CCTV’s “Investment Interviewer. My stock selection and performance in 21 years have proved myself. After the age of 40, suddenly there is no resentment for being underappreciated, and the heart is at peace.
After the age of 40, you need to output, before the age of 40, you write to prove yourself, and after the age of 40, you write for output.
Seven, this year’s perception
Soldiers are impermanent, and water is impermanent. Everyone has to pay a premium for their feelings. For example, white horse stocks, track stocks, high-tech stocks, and growth stocks, when it comes to high valuations, there are always many beautiful reasons to justify high stock prices. But once the decline comes, the decline will still fall, and because of the large number of profit taking, it is also terrible to kill. So I agree more and more with what John Templeton said, don’t tell me where the most optimistic area is, tell me the most pessimistic investment area.
From the beautiful white horse stock to the stock that everyone hates, the stock is still the same stock, but the hearts of the public have changed. So I think the most important thing is valuation, or valuation. Of course, a low valuation does not mean that it must rise.
“When people with different styles tend to agree on the same stock, the main rise in stock prices will come.” Investing in stocks requires multi-dimensional considerations. You can’t consider a stock from a single dimension, otherwise you will fall into the question of, “Why are the conditions in all aspects so good and the valuation is low enough, why hasn’t it risen?” So I have to learn from Feng Liu and conduct multi-dimensional analysis of stocks. judge.
8. Looking forward to next year
In 2023, the economic operation is going to be good. With reference to history, buffaloes will be born to enhance confidence in economic development.
1. Gold stocks
As European and American countries raise interest rates and shrink their balance sheets, it is foreseeable that the economy will experience recession next year, and geopolitical turmoil will intensify. And gold, without a doubt, the antithesis of economic growth, is a favorite in times of turmoil. Next year, the price of gold will rise further, and gold stocks will also be sought after.
2. Energy stocks
Crude oil is subject to long-term insufficient capital investment, so it is optimistic about the price of crude oil for a long time, and Buffett’s purchase of oil stocks is also based on this.
3. Non-ferrous stocks
Copper has a 6-year mining cycle, and 19 years is the low point of copper investment. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the supply of copper will have a cliff effect in 2024-25, triggering price increases.
4. Military industry stocks
In the current stagflation cycle, the development of science and technology is stagnant, the regional geopolitical situation is unstable, and military conflicts will increase. The military industry is a long-term growth track for 20 years.
5. Insurance stocks are discussed in detail at the beginning of the article.
All in all, I am optimistic about the outlook for next year. Looking back at my historical rate of return, any year with a big loss will definitely make a lot of money in the second year, such as 13
The annual income is -10.3%, making a lot of money in 14 years, and the income in 18 years is -17.4%, making a lot of money in 19 years. So the earnings in 23 years are not pessimistic.
$CNOOC(00883)$ $Shandong Gold(01787)$ $Zijin Mining(02899)$
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