270 billion dropped overnight! Tesla collapsed, and short sellers made over 100 billion

Human beings are already full of thorns on the way of chasing progress. Similarly, investment in technology stocks is also full of great variables and uncertainties. Sister Mumu’s fund hit a new high in 2020, but it failed miserably in 2022. This is due to the nature of technology stock investment, so there is no need to panic too much.

It’s just that the retracement of this round of U.S. technology stocks has indeed far exceeded everyone’s expectations. There are liquidity attenuation problems caused by the Fed’s interest rate hikes, and there are negative factors generated by the turbulent international political situation (such as semiconductors). industry), and the impact of changes in anti-epidemic policies on individual stocks (such as Peleton), but it is more about how investors have fulfilled their exorbitant expectations for economic transformation in the past few years. Looking at the world around us, although we are still on the road to becoming more and more prosperous, applied technology seems to have been “locked” in the past few years. Take the military industry with the most technological content as an example, the main force of US arms sales F15EX is the technical foundation of the 1970s, and although F35 is more advanced, it is also a project started in the 1990s. While we are fully enjoying the dividends of the third industrial revolution, it seems that we have not found a breakthrough point for new technologies. Tesla, Netflix, and Nvidia, companies that we once placed high hopes on, are still far behind in terms of growth in the face of time. There is a gap between people’s “great expectations”, and it is expected that stock prices will fluctuate or even fall sharply.

But if you take a closer look at these technology stock companies (except for electronic tokens), the stock prices and related data after the plunge have become very healthy, and even have obvious long-term investment value from a purely value perspective. More than 20 times Netflix, Tesla, which has begun to make stable profits, and RBLX, which has only 15% of the peak stock price, are scenarios that have never been faced by technology stock investment in the past few years. If people are trying to evaluate growth stocks from the perspective of value, then will growth stocks really come to an end? And if we’re still clinging to the idea that the world can get better, why not give them the most critical hold right now?

From an investment point of view, Sister Mumu and her fund have been overly mythologized in the past two years. The single style and temporary skyrocketing can only show that she is a type of fund manager with a specific style. By way of analogy, if Gülen’s label is “medicine”, then Sister Mutou is “technology”. Both of them may be very powerful, but their skill points are so concentrated, and their magical stock picking ability cannot be escaped. The beta fluctuations in the travel industry make us only think of them as “style niches” in investment institutions. From this perspective, the current media and investors are inexplicably surprised by the performance of Mu Mujie, which probably shows that their perception of Mu Mujie was wrong at the beginning. Applying Jin Yong’s martial arts world, Buffett, who can control different worlds and The long-term king of style can be regarded as Zhang Sanfeng, while Sister Wood’s radical and concentrated style is more like Guo Jing who only learned fifteen moves to subdue the dragon and eighteen palms. Master, there is still a huge gap in cognition and balance.

Going back to our investment, when we talk about the old-fashioned topic of asset allocation, many people think that it is a diversified allocation among stocks, bonds and commodities, but they don’t know that the appropriate adjustment of this ratio must follow a set of scientific methods. Asset allocation and selection are extremely technical. For the same stock assets, what kind of fund should I buy? Can different styles of funds create diversification? How should we determine the style of these funds A\B\C? These must be based on our accurate definition after careful investigation of the underlying assets. Our hesitation about Sister Wood just shows that our definition of “style label” for stock funds is insufficient.

Cathy Wood, nicknamed “Sister Wood” by fans, jumped up during the epidemic and became a celebrity investor and a female version of Buffett. But later it turned out that it is not so easy to become Buffett. Buffett has gone through many bull-bear cycles, and the suddenly famous Mu Mujie, once the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate hike cycle, the performance of its funds fell quarter after season. From the data point of view, the total assets of Ark’s nine ETFs have dropped from a peak of US$60.3 billion in February last year to US$11.4 billion. This has a lot to do with the fund’s heavy holdings in technology stocks, and now everyone realizes that Mu Mujie’s amazing performance in the early stage of the epidemic may only be due to the central bank’s release of water after the heavy holding of technology stocks. It’s just a matter of going with the flow.