The price of pigs
In the first quarter of 2022, 195.66 million heads will be sold, with an average price of 12.55 yuan. This average price is extremely tragic for the industry’s 18 yuan cost.
The fattening in the first quarter corresponds to the breeding piglets from January to May 2021. During this time period, both the price of pigs and the ability to breed are at a high position, so I can understand that there are really many pigs. At the same time, it is also certain that the ability to breed and eliminate in the first quarter of this year will continue, which will also pave the way for high pig prices in the first quarter of next year.
The second quarter is coming to an end. Although the price of pigs in late June has been greatly squeezed to 18 yuan, if the average pig price in the first half of the year is only about 15 yuan; if the weighted average pig price is calculated, it will be lower, because the slaughter in the second quarter dropped sharply.
If the average pig price in the second half of the year is 20 yuan, then the average pig price for the whole year is about 18 yuan. Then, referring to the situation in 2021, about 680 million heads will be slaughtered in 2022. In fact, due to the 196 million slaughtered in the first quarter, the production capacity was completely released.
If the Ministry of Agriculture’s reproductive sow data is reduced by 10%, it means that the slaughter is also reduced by 10%. If the 700 million head is normal, then the reduction of 10% is 630 million head. This output will make farmers have a medium or above. profit. So optimistic about pig prices in the second half of the year.
2. Annual profit forecast of Muyuan
In the first half of the year, the number of slaughtered heads is expected to be 30 million. If the weighted average pig price is roughly 14 yuan, after deducting piglets and breeding pigs, the fattening head will lose about 200 yuan, and the loss in the first half of the year will be calculated at 6 billion.
In the second half of the year, if the pig price maintains an average price of 20 yuan. In the second half of the year, 24 million fattening heads were sold, with a profit of 12 billion. After deducting the losses in the first half of the year, the net profit for the year was about 6 billion. This is a minimum value.
What is more worrying now is whether to reduce breeding since the second half of last year.
The price of pigs has risen, but there are fewer pigs in large-scale enterprises. This is the biggest tragedy.
However, it is precisely because large-scale enterprises reduce production capacity and breeding that there are fewer pigs and the price can rise.
Causation is plausible. $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
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