report summary
The century-old automobile industry is being restructured intelligently: 1) The popularization of new energy vehicles, accelerating the intelligent upgrading of automobile products, and the popularization of autonomous driving. Rapid iteration of smart cockpit innovation; 2) The automotive industry pattern will be restructured. Technology car companies with full self-research capabilities are expected to lead industrial transformation and enhance brand power; 3) Local supply chain companies that deeply bind leading car companies will continue to benefit from the wave of intelligence and the rise of local technology car companies.
Reconfiguration: The century-old automobile industry is being restructured. The wave of intelligence will continue to restructure automotive products, vehicle market patterns and the automotive industry chain. 1> Tesla’s valuation exceeds US$72 billion, reflecting the market’s expectations for the future of autonomous driving and temporary vehicles. In the Chinese market, Ideal, Xiaopeng, and Weilai quickly followed up, and traditional car companies such as BYD were actively transforming. We predict that the size of China’s new energy vehicle market will exceed 5.7 million (+73%) in 2022, and it is estimated that by 2025, the annual sales of China’s new energy vehicles will exceed 13 million, and electrification will accelerate the process of intelligentization of automotive products. 2) Autonomous driving: Leading car companies are evolving to vertically integrated technological capabilities; Robo-axi has expanded its L2+ supporting business from L4, and empowered traditional carmakers to upgrade their autonomous driving as Tiert. 3) Smart cockpit: Changing the driving experience of the car has gradually become one of the important considerations for consumers to purchase vehicles. Chinese car companies have more imagination on the application side. 4) The pattern of the automobile industry will continue to change. Technological car companies with full-stack self-research capabilities are expected to lead the industry reform, continue to gain market share, and significantly enhance their brand power. 5) Local supply chain companies that deeply bind leading car companies are expected to benefit from the wave of intelligence and the rise of local technology car companies.
Intelligent reconstruction of automobile products: New energy accelerates the intelligentization of automobiles. 1) The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase. New energy vehicle products are gradually maturing, and more popular products are on the market, and sales are expected to increase rapidly in the future. In the second half of 2022, Wei Xiaoli will enter the new product launch period again. With the “product positioning + user experience” of ET5, G9, L9 and other products, future sales are worth looking forward to. 2)) The automobile is going through the era from “functional machine” to “smart machine”, and the popularization of new energy vehicles will accelerate this process. Automotive electronic and electrical architecture is undergoing a transition from ECU distributed control to sub-domain control. Domain controllers are in the ascendant. The popularization of new energy vehicles accelerates the upgrading of automotive electronic and electrical architecture. In the future, with the popularization of high-end autonomous driving, some new models may be further upgraded to central control. New energy vehicles accelerate the process of vehicle digitization and intelligence. Similar to the transformation that the smartphone market has experienced, the penetration rate of automotive intelligence will continue to increase. The next 5-10 years will be a dividend period for automotive intelligence. 3>) Smart electric vehicle: the intersection of technological revolution and energy revolution, Al reconstructs automobile products. At present, we are experiencing a technological revolution driven by cloud computing and artificial intelligence, and we are also experiencing an energy revolution from primary energy to secondary energy. Smart electric vehicles are the intersection of the technological revolution and the energy revolution. The fast-developing A concept will completely restructure automobile products, and data and computing power will drive the intelligent acceleration of automobiles. Tesla has completed the consumer education and investor education of “autonomous driving”, and new forces and traditional car companies that are actively transforming are quickly following up. We judge that more product differentiation in the future will revolve around the “smart cockpit”.
Intelligent reconstruction of the automotive industry pattern: Tech-car companies with full-stack self-research capabilities are expected to lead the industrial transformation. 1) The global auto industry remains stable. In the era of fuel vehicles, the overall demand of the global auto industry has remained stable, the competition pattern has remained stable, and the market share of the world’s top 15 companies has remained stable at more than 87% for a long time. The pattern of the auto industry has remained stable for quite a long time. 2) Intelligence will reconstruct the pattern of the automobile industry, and the market will experience a change of “first decentralization and then concentration”. Under the wave of automobile intelligence, the industry competition pattern is constantly changing. In 2021, the industry will usher in new changes. Tesla has entered the top ten market capitalization companies in the world, and Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng Motors, and Xiaokang have entered the top ten market capitalization companies in China, reflecting investors’ optimistic expectations for the intelligent automotive track. As the next generation of smart terminal products, smart cars are expected to become the next-generation Internet portal. In addition to traditional car companies & new car manufacturers, technology companies have also increased their presence in this field. Looking back at the development history of smartphones, we believe that the future competition pattern of smart cars is expected to undergo changes that will first decentralize and then concentrate. 3) We are in the “strategic opportunity period for brand reconstruction”, and intelligence helps independent brands “upgrade”. We believe that the automobile industry is undergoing a transition from “mechanical products in the industrial age to technological hardware in the intelligent age”, and the future core competitiveness of smart cars is product definition” and “customer experience”. The original joint ventures and foreign auto companies are *Space* and “intelligence” have not really provided for the Chinese market, leaving room for Chinese car companies. 4) At the valuation level, new car-making forces have the dual attributes of manufacturing and technology products, and it is necessary to refer to the mid-term Based on Tesla’s 2015-2019 valuation, we believe that the PS valuation corresponding to the income in the third year in the future is relatively reasonable. In addition, the valuation premium should be adjusted taking into account profitability and cash flow.
Intelligent reconstruction of the automotive industry chain: Local supply chain companies that deeply bind leading car companies are expected to benefit from the wave of intelligence and the rise of local high-tech car companies. 1) Intelligence has spawned new supply chain demands, such as “domain controllers” and “lidar”. In the era of gasoline vehicles, the pattern of auto parts is stable, and foreign and joint venture parts have significant advantages. During the period of product and market restructuring, intelligence drives more new demands. “Autonomous driving” pulls perception (lidar, camera, 4D millimeter wave, high-precision map), decision-making (A chip, domain controller, software), execution (electric drive, electric steering, electric braking) requirements, “Smart Cockpit “Pull human-computer interaction (screen, AR HUD, voice control, gesture control) demand. 2> From “hardware intelligence” to “software-defined car”. With the simplification of the traditional three major components brought about by new energy, the decoupling of software and hardware brought about by the centralized architecture, and the increase in the proportion of electronic components in the cost of the entire vehicle, the innovation & development cycle of smart electric vehicles is expected to be further accelerated. We see: (a) In 2022 and after, more smart models will be launched on the market, and the products will be iterated in the direction of “hardware pre-embedded, software OTA”. (b) Robo-axi has expanded from L4 to L2+, empowering traditional car companies to accelerate intelligence. Pony.ai, WeRide, Baidu Ruipao, Didi, Momenta, Zhixing and other companies have expanded robo-taxi services and expanded operations in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and other places. Since 2022, robo-axi has entered the L2 market from L4, expanding passenger car customers as Tier 1, and helping traditional car companies to upgrade intelligently. 3) The domestic supply chain is expected to grow rapidly with the “strategic opportunity period” of automobile intelligence. We are currently in a period of strategic opportunity for local car companies to upgrade their brands. New forces and traditional car companies that are actively transforming are expected to gain more market shares. Supply chain companies that are deeply involved in the intelligent upgrade of their own brands are expected to grow rapidly in the strategic opportunity period. .
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