Industry Views
The construction industry has been in a state of recovery recently, and the recovery in infrastructure is even more pronounced. In May, the construction industry PMI was 52.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, which is closely related to the epidemic and flood season, but the expectation index increased by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 57.9%, confirming that the industry has relatively obvious expectations for the recovery of the construction industry ; The order index was 46.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that industry orders are expanding. Among them, the civil engineering and construction business activity index and new order index were 62.7% and 59.1%, 1.7 and 6.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, both continued to rise from the high base level of the previous month, indicating that the recent infrastructure construction continued advance to provide strong support for stable growth.
Recently, many parts of the country have been actively resuming work and production. The data of 250 cement production enterprises surveyed by Centennial Construction Network shows that cement shipments continue to increase, which may be caused by rushing to work before the flood season. The regional cement output has slowed down. With the resumption of work in Shanghai, the demand in East China will recover strongly. In the follow-up, as the epidemic in Beijing eases and the rains in many regions are repeated, the short-term national demand is expected to rise under pressure.
The policy of stabilizing growth continues to increase. Recently, the State Council and the Ministry of Finance have successively launched efforts to support infrastructure from the perspectives of capital and demand. The State Council recently issued the “Package of Policy Measures to Steady and Stabilize the Economy” to support new and old infrastructure from the perspectives of capital and demand. 1) From the perspective of capital, the fiscal policy and monetary and financial policy will work together, not only to speed up the issuance of special bonds, but also to “accelerate the issuance and use of the 3.45 trillion yuan of special bonds issued this year, and basically complete the issuance before the end of June, and strive to achieve 8 It will be basically used before the end of the month”, which is 3 months faster than the “the quota issued this year will be issued by the end of September” required in the previous national regular meeting at the end of March, and the confidence in rushing to work has been further clarified. In addition, in terms of the scope of funds used in special bonds, on the basis of the 9 major areas identified in the early stage, including transportation infrastructure, energy, and affordable housing projects, the areas supported by special bonds should be appropriately expanded, and new infrastructure and new energy projects should be given priority to be included. range of support. On the other hand, in terms of monetary and financial policies, we will continue to promote the stability of the actual loan interest rate with some decline, continue to release the efficiency of the reform of the loan LPR formation mechanism, give full play to the role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of the deposit interest rate, and guide financial institutions to transmit the effect of the decline in the deposit interest rate to the loan side. . In addition, financial institutions should increase their support for infrastructure construction and major projects, especially water conservancy, water transportation, highways, and logistics. 2) From the perspective of demand, in the relevant policies for stabilizing investment, it is clear to accelerate the promotion of a number of well-documented water conservancy projects, accelerate investment in transportation infrastructure, and continue to promote the construction of urban underground comprehensive pipe corridors according to local conditions. At the same time, social capital is encouraged to participate, and the consortium of large and medium-sized enterprises is favored in the bidding projects of the supply chain and industrial chain, and private enterprises are encouraged to participate.
After this week’s regular meeting of the National People’s Congress required “to support the construction of financial infrastructure, increase the credit line of policy banks by 800 billion yuan, and establish a docking mechanism for the list of key projects”, the central bank meeting clearly “continue to guide financial institutions to enhance the stability of total credit growth.” By establishing a government-bank-enterprise docking mechanism, we will increase credit support for water conservancy, transportation, energy and other infrastructure construction and key areas such as major projects.”
In order to expand infrastructure investment, policies have been issued frequently recently. While revitalizing existing assets in the next step, financial institutions will strengthen the connection with key projects, promote the project to start construction as soon as possible, and speed up construction. The core problem of capital should be solved first, and it is expected to resume work while stabilizing the epidemic. . At the same time, it also reflects that the expectation of increased infrastructure investment is more certain. We should continue to pay attention to the upstream and downstream investment opportunities in the infrastructure industry chain, focusing on the leaders of various sub-sectors, as well as transportation, water conservancy, integrated pipe gallery, new infrastructure and new energy construction and other related issues. In the field, under the background of the continuous emergence of recovery, we attach importance to the leading opportunities of building materials subdivision.
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