Current investment results are based on judgments made in the past.
In the first half of this year, I felt that time passed very slowly. They all said that the happy time passed very fast, and the loss-making time was like a year.
The main reason for the loss was that I ignored the macro impact on my investment portfolio . I thought that the decline in Chinese concept stocks had fully released the risks of the market. I did not expect that the Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction would also have a serious blow to U.S. domestic stocks.
This year can be said to be a liquidation of the bubbles blown in 2020. The three technology companies held in the US stock market, Block fell 60% during the year, Tesla fell 35%, AMD fell 48.8%, and the declines exceeded the 28.87% of the Nasdaq. .
Block is currently the No. 1 heavyweight stock, and it is also the investment target with the most losses. It must be reviewed. Block belongs to the Fintech industry. The Fintech industry is essentially a sloppy industry. The larger the amount of funds on the platform, the faster the flow of funds, and the more favorable the development of the platform. There are two situations that can achieve these two points. The first is that the amount of water in the whole society is increasing, just like the monetary easing and fiscal easing in the United States in 2020. The second is that the platform has more and more application scenarios. The first has the most obvious short-term impact on the stock price, and the second is the company’s long-term growth logic.
Obviously, Block has been able to continuously reach more application scenarios. From the time it was first listed, it had POS, then it had Cash App, and now it has BNPL. Each block has its own ecology, and strives to reach more in their own ecology. multiple scenes. For example, Cash App, originally only had P2P transfers, but later it was possible to invest in stocks, invest in pie, and later there was Cash Card.
We have also witnessed history. In the past, the annual line of Block was a positive line every year, and two large negative lines in the past two years. P/GP has increased from more than 40 times to 7.8 times now, and the historical low is 7.5 times, which is already the lowest level in history.
If you think that the bubble is almost killed, the future will be based on the fundamental market, and see if the scenes touched by Block can be further increased, and how the increased scenes can be converted into performance.
｜ Patchwork
Looking ahead starts from the macro. The macro is more or less a conspiracy theory, or yy, but we are piecing together a picture of the future in our limited information.
Today, after the start of the war in Ukraine, the entire world landscape began to change. Because of the war, oil prices have soared and are currently consolidating at high levels. Soaring oil prices and trade protectionism in Western countries have led to their high inflation. At the beginning of the war, many felt it was over soon. But over time, the Russian side found that the war continued, and the national treasury could be increased, and all this was different. Russia can maintain the war and drag down the economies of European and American countries with high inflation.
The Ukrainian side found that the fathers of its sponsors were in pain, and they had become a bargaining chip, and because of ideology and populism in Europe, even if the national leaders hoped that the Ukrainian side would suffer from a loss and negotiate with the Russian side, they dared not really say it. export, and continue to provide support to the Ukrainian side.
When inflation first picked up last year, the United States always believed that inflation was temporary and delayed raising interest rates. It was not until March of this year that the rate hike began, and the balance sheet began to shrink in June, which was already too late. What the Fed can stimulate is demand, but this time inflation is on the supply side. At this time, the Fed’s interest rate hike will obviously have a negative impact on the economy (although I didn’t think so a few months ago), but the US dollar is the world’s currency, and the world is watching how it responds to inflation. If left alone, it will continue Credit. The Fed is now more likely to maintain dollar hegemony at the expense of several quarters of recession.
As for Saudi Arabia, if OPEC+ is not formed, it is likely to help the United States to reduce the impact of inflation by increasing crude oil production. After all, in the past, the United States guaranteed their independence with weapons and military bases, also known as the petrodollar system at that time. However, with more and more domestic shale oil production capacity in the United States, and now the United States ranks first in the world in crude oil production, the United States believes that its petrodollar system can be maintained without cooperation with Saudi Arabia, so in Biden’s candidacy It was only at that time that it was said that Saudi Arabia would be reduced to a pariah state. OPEC also has other big producers forming a new alliance, OPEC+.
Naturally, Saudi Arabia will not help the United States so easily, and the United States needs to pay a greater price.
At a time when the Western world is in chaos, China, which is in a stable position, coupled with loose monetary policy and constantly loosening property market policies, will be the focus of investment in the next year and a half or even two years.
The first is Daqo New Energy (DQ), because the demand for photovoltaics continues to be strong and the price of upstream silicon materials remains high and fluctuated. It is expected that DQ’s performance will not be bad this year. Coupled with loose monetary policy, Chinese assets have entered a cycle of valuation improvement. The valuation of DQ itself in the US stock market is very low, coupled with the continued growth of performance this year, a wave of Davis double-click market.
Then there is the SaaS industry. SaaS is a bull market variety. Because most of the domestic SaaS companies are losing money, they mainly rely on the valuation improvement. I chose Kingsoft and Weimeng Group, which are related to the real economy. Although half of Kingsoft’s revenue comes from games, Kingsoft Office is the future focus. Betting on economic recovery, Kingsoft Office adds more paying users. Weimeng Group is also betting on economic recovery, an increase in paying customers and an increase in customer unit prices.
Because the valuation level of the entire market is closely related to monetary policy, SaaS speculates on the increase in valuation. SaaS actually speculates on the central bank’s monetary policy cycle.
COFCO Jiajiakang will continue to hold, and a new round of pig cycle has just begun. Although the price of live pigs has recently rebounded, most pork companies are still losing money and are still far from selling. At present, COFCO Jiakang is also the target of the most profitable accounts. It is very comfortable to make money by stepping on the rhythm of the mid-cycle.
Therefore, my current feelings are very contradictory. Looking at the Hong Kong stock market during the day, I feel that it is in the budding period of a new round of market prices. Looking at the US stock market at night, although it has fallen a lot, the tightening has just begun. $Block(SQ)$ $Big New Energy(DQ)$ $Weimob Group(02013)$
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