Original link: https://sehseh.substack.com/p/731
?Full text easy to read and share version｜ Abe’s death: What will happen to the political situation in Japan and the situation in East Asia after two shots are fired?
Text / Chen Weichen
Japan’s 26th upper house election will take place on Sunday (July 10, 2022).
Usually, the last Friday before an election is supposed to be a day when political parties are actively canvassing votes and political leaders go around to give lectures. However, after two shots were fired, everything stopped abruptly. Sadly, Shinzo Abe, the once-powerful and longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history, is stuck at this moment in his life, at the age of 67.
This assassination incident, which shocked the whole world, not only affected the political situation in Japan, but also had a major impact on the situation in East Asia and even the democratic camp in the world.
As for why the suspect Yamagami Toru also committed this case? Most of the current news points to the personal family factors of the suspect, and the reason for his assassination is because he believes that his mother contributed a lot of money to the religious group “World Peace and Unification Family United” (formerly Unification Church ), which led to the broken family. Thinking of killing.
But the whole incident is too bizarre. After all, in a country with such strict firearms and explosives controls like Japan, suspects have to spend time purchasing parts, assembling, and testing the performance of home-made firearms, possibly over a period of months. As a result, many conspiracy theories have begun to emerge, speculating whether there are other forces involved behind the incident, so the Japanese police and prosecutors are also actively investigating.
Yesterday morning, the results of the upper house election were released , and Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won a big victory.
The party not only won more than half of the seats in the Senate, but also has more than two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives. After reaching the threshold of constitutional amendment, it has become an overwhelming majority in the parliament.
The deceased is dead, and Shinzo Abe passed away for some reason, but his career has not yet been achieved.
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Japanese politics: The Liberal Democratic Party is the winner of the election, and the fate of the factions within the party is uncertain
Even though Abe stepped down as prime minister two years ago, he still has considerable influence on Japanese politics: he is the largest faction in Japan’s largest party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Qinghe Policy Research Association (hereinafter referred to as “Abe faction”) leader .
In the House of Representatives and the Senate alone, there are 94 members of the Abe faction, accounting for almost a quarter of the Liberal Democratic Party. As the leader of the faction, Abe naturally “calls that water will freeze.”
From the 2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, we can understand Abe’s influence: Abe supported and launched Takaichi Sanae , who has no faction, to run for president. As a result, Takaichi won more votes among members of Congress than the pre-election voice. Kono Taro .
Due to the fact that there are many candidates for faction members and the appeal of the former prime minister, Abe can be said to have traveled to the north and south of the Japanese archipelago to support the election, and he has quite a lot of itineraries every day: Among the members of the Abe faction, there are 35 senators, and this year’s term There are 14 candidates who must be re-elected; among them, two more will no longer participate in the election after the end of their term of office, so a total of 12 will seek re-election, and one of the retired Masaharu Nakagawa (constituency Tokyo) is to support the former idol artist. Raw rice Akiko candidacy.
I just didn’t expect that Abe was shot and killed in Nara while running the election campaign. You can imagine the impact on the Japanese people. Because the police failed to stop the tragedy, the Nara Prefectural Police became the object of criticism from all walks of life, and the special police of the Metropolitan Police Department, who was responsible for personal protection, became the focus of the review.
As for the constitutional revision issue that Shinzo Abe has been worrying about and promoting?
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The issue of constitutional amendments concerned by all parties refers to Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution:
“The Japanese people wholeheartedly seek international peace based on justice and order, and will forever renounce war, threat or use of force based on national power as a means of settling international disputes.
In order to achieve the previous items, the land, navy, air force and other war powers are not maintained, and the state’s belligerent rights are not recognized. “
Although the constitution stipulates that “war power” cannot be retained, in fact, Japan still has the so-called “self-defense forces”. After World War II, Japan gave up the right to wage war and prohibited the conscription of the army. Therefore, although the function of the Self-Defense Force is equivalent to the army, it is not a military organization in name, and its main function is to maintain Japan’s self-defense capability.
However, after entering the 21st century, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces began to participate in U.S. military operations and overseas peacekeeping missions, causing disputes beyond the scope of “self-defense”. ” was debated endlessly.
Shinzo Abe’s legacy includes the establishment of the Self-Defense Forces into the constitution, strengthening the response of the Diet and the Cabinet to emergencies, solving the problem of merged constituencies and one-vote gap through electoral district redrawing, and enriching Japan’s domestic educational environment and school scholarships, etc. Promote these issues and achieve the ultimate goal of restoring a “normal country”.
According to Japanese law, amendments to the constitution require the approval of at least two-thirds of the members of both houses of parliament before launching a bill to amend the constitution, and after a majority of the referendum, the constitution can be amended.
After the current senatorial re-election, plus the seats that were not originally re-elected, the “Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito ruling alliance” not only has 146 seats in the Senate, 7 more than before the re-election, and the four parties that amend the constitution have more than 177 seats. , 11 more than the constitutional amendment threshold of 166 seats. In the House of Representatives, the four main parties that support the constitutional amendment already account for two-thirds of the seats.
After the election, the number of seats for the conservative right increased significantly, which not only weakened the left, but the original largest opposition party, the Cadets, also had only 39 Senate seats left after the election, plus 95 seats in the House of Representatives. There is not much restraining force.
It is foreseeable that after the election, the Liberal Democratic Party will actively promote the revision of the constitution and the reform of related issues.
“We will launch a motion to amend the constitution as soon as possible, and then put it to a referendum…We will challenge huge issues with courage,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said publicly after Sunday’s election.
After Abe was shot, the rise of hardliners in the Liberal Democratic Party also affected the attitude of the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his cabinet. It can be seen from the unprecedented visa he issued to the current Vice President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-de, to visit Japan.
The stable political situation after the election has strengthened Kishida’s personal power as prime minister. After Abe’s death, Kishida will be more determined to follow his own path. Originally, Abe played a pivotal role in foreign affairs, defense and economic affairs, and Kishida Most of the cabinet members are also members of the Abe faction.
Whether Kishida Fumio will continue to follow the Abe line remains to be seen, but on the afternoon of July 11, he announced at a public press conference that he would maintain the Abe line.
However, at the end of August, Kishida will start the cabinet reform. At that time, there will be a reorganization of power within the Liberal Democratic Party. It is still uncertain whether it will form a “Kishida Ichichi”. But many political observers are worried about whether the Abe faction can maintain its position as the biggest faction in the party.
Although after the re-election of the upper house, all 12 members of the Abe faction were elected, and the political newcomer Akiko Ina, who was previously supported by Abe, was also successfully elected. After taking office, he should join the Qinghe Council. However, the newly elected senators this year are all the goals of the various factions in the party to strengthen their forces-the Qinghe Association will be without the highly respected elder Shinzo Abe. And fall apart? Can the successor leader use his charisma to attract newcomers to the faction? These are the focus of recent attention.
International Politics: Impact on the Indo-Pacific “Anti-China Alliance” and Japan-China Relations
After Shinzo Abe resigned from office, he actively organized an “Anti-China Alliance” in response to China’s threat. His pro-US, Taiwan-friendly, and anti-China stances became increasingly clear. Repeatedly let the Chinese government jump.
Today, Abe, a pro-Taiwan faction general, is missing from Japanese politics. Whether there will be enough famous politicians to lead the pro-Taiwan faction in the future and influence the attitude of the Japanese government will have a certain impact on the relationship between Taiwan and Japan.
In addition, after the news of Abe’s death by shooting spread to China, many people were elated because of their dissatisfaction with Abe’s attitude towards China. After the news came back to Japan, many Japanese people were outraged. These episodes undoubtedly made matters worse for Japan-China relations. After Abe leaves, whether the Youzhong forces within the Liberal Democratic Party will arise because of this is also related to the policy direction within the Liberal Democratic Party.
Shinzo Abe studied in the United States and has quite unique insights into international foreign affairs.
At the end of 2012, after Abe visited the prime minister again, he actively led Japan to participate in international affairs. During the nearly 8 years in power, he has traveled to more than 80 countries. He not only has deep friendship with former US President Trump, but also has very friendly relations with India and Southeast Asian countries. .
After the United States withdrew from the ” Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement “, he shouldered this real economy against China, and Japan led the follow-up development of the CPTPP.
Without Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, after the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japan’s national strength, economic strength, and international status, etc., will accelerate its decline.
However, during Shinzo Abe’s tenure as Prime Minister, in order to build his ideal Japan, he did not hesitate to suppress freedom of speech and favor chaebols , which made the lives of many people at the bottom of the society difficult. Scandals such as the cherry blossom viewing party incident , although Abe-san has all retired, but these scandals have also left a stain on his personal political career.
What will the future of the world look like after the Abe attack?
A hero or a hero will eventually be decided.
But what is certain is that Shinzo Abe has experienced a magnificent life and is also an important role in Japan after the war. His reputation is not only in Japan, but also affects the world situation from the end of the Heisei era to the Reiwa era. This is why after Abe passed away, the young and strong factions in the party shouted that they would inherit Abe’s will. The best comment.
The suspect once said that he was not dissatisfied with the political philosophy of former Prime Minister Abe, but regardless of the reasons behind it, the suspect’s reckless behavior may be as dangerous as the Sarajevo incident more than a hundred years ago: a Serbian Radical youth Gavrilo. Gavrilo Princip assassinated Archduke Ferdinand and his wife of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, causing two human havoc in the 20th century.
Maybe they all felt that their actions were just, but this suspect named Toruya Yamagami must not have thought that his actions had changed the world.
When the balance of power is disrupted, how will the future situation develop, and how can we, as members of the global village, stay out of it. (Finish)
About the Author｜ Chen Weichen (Taiwanese media correspondent in Japan, freelance writer, Japanese political and economic critic, former senior political staff. Born in 1972, engaged in political work for 20 years, now living in Tokyo, writing articles based on observations of Japanese political and social situations, Japanese culture, exchanges between Taiwan and Japan, and railway interest are the main topics. His works have been published in the media such as “Report”, “Corner International”, “Thinking Forum”, “Think Tank”, “Japan Net NIPPON.COM” and so on.)
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This article is reprinted from: https://sehseh.substack.com/p/731
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