Welcome to the WeChat subscription number of “Sina Technology”: techsina
Text | He Jinyi Zhang Ranran Editor | Fu Xiaoling Mu Mu
Source: outside and inside
At the NIO ES8 conference in 2017, Li Xiang was the only guest standing on the stage besides Li Bin.
The reason for this arrangement is that Li Bin expressed his gratitude: “I made up my mind to make a 7-seat SUV, which has something to do with Li Xiang.”
Before that, whether to choose 5 seats or 7 seats for ES8, Li Bin prefers the former.
Because of the data, the sales volume of 5-seat cars is significantly higher than that of 7-seat cars. But apparently due to Li Xiang’s suggestion, ES8 finally chose 7 seats.
Such a situation is not an isolated case. Similar situations have occurred many times in NIO’s product pipeline management.
When faced with the pressure of the financing environment, sudden competition, and new market opportunities, Weilai is often “extremely flexible” in product adjustment.
In contrast, the ideal is a completely different style. No matter how the outside world changes, it has always focused on family cars and firmly grasped the needs of the dad group.
In other words, many NIO products are launched based on rapid response to market changes and lack certain determination.
The adjustment of these product pipelines will deeply affect the operation status of the company: not only the current sales volume, but also the long-term competitiveness.
Due to financing pressure, ET7 was postponed
NIO’s first sedan, the ET7, began delivering in March this year. And since delivery, sales have continued to climb, and sales in June have entered the top 10 high-end sedan sales.
Undoubtedly, NIO has created another star model.
However, this was 2 years later than originally planned.
Weilai once stated in the prospectus: We plan to launch the first sedan ET7 in 2020. ET7 is expected to leverage the platform technologies of ES8 and ES6.
But in the 2019Q1 financial report, Weilai changed its mind.
Not only announced that the ET series of models will be launched based on the follow-up NP2 platform, but also launched a new model based on NP1, which is now known as the NIO EC6.
So why was the flagship sedan ET7 on hold?
The financial report shows that in 2019Q1, Weilai had about 7.54 billion yuan of high-liquidity assets on the account. However, the main product ES8 at that time was basically selling one car at a loss, with a quarterly net loss of about 2.5 billion.
In other words, NIO’s cash flow at that time could only last for another 3 quarters.
To make matters worse, in the capital market, NIO is no longer a “sweet pastry”. Although in May 2019, it signed a framework agreement with “Yizhuang State Investment” to obtain a cash investment of 10 billion yuan, it can be released by the 2019Q2 financial report. , and there is no news that the funds have landed.
Cash flow is tight and financing is very difficult. Under such financial pressure, NIO has to give priority to products with low investment and high returns.
And ET7, does not seem to meet the conditions.
We all know that modular platforms can reduce manufacturing costs by improving the versatility of components, which can help OEMs shorten R&D cycles and control profits.
For example, ES6 and ES8 are both SUV models, both developed based on NIO’s NP1 platform. According to Prism, the parts common rate of ES8 and ES6 is about 50%.
As a result, after the ES6 began deliveries in June 2019, NIO’s auto sales gross margin improved significantly.
However, ET7 is different. It is positioned as NIO’s first sedan model, which itself is not compatible with the NP1 platform that started as an SUV.
NIO President Qin Lihong once revealed in an interview: The NP1 platform started as an SUV, and considering the user’s power exchange needs, the chassis is 3 cm higher than the Model S. To make the first-generation platform compatible with cars, the entire R&D process The cost of mold and investment preparation will be very large.
According to Prism, only 20% of the parts of ES8 and ET7 can be used in common, except for the three-electric system (battery, motor and electronic control), the others are almost different. This means that if ET7 is developed on the NP1 platform, the R&D cost of ET7 will be further increased.
In contrast, the above-mentioned model EC6, which replaces ET7, is a coupe model of ES6, a coupe SUV between an SUV and a sedan. That is to say, the EC6 can be developed based on the NP1 platform, directly utilizing the body structure design foundation, molds, components and supply chain.
On the 2019Q4 conference call, the management said: EC6 and ES6 share a lot of components, and the cost of battery packs will drop when they go on the market, so no matter what kind of pricing strategy EC6 adopts, they are very confident in its gross profit margin. .
In this way, it is not difficult to understand why the ET7 was replaced and delivered two years late.
Surprised by the localization of Model Y, hurriedly launched EC6 to fight
Statistics show that the EC6 project only took 18 months from launch to launch.
Although the current average R&D cycle for a new car has been shortened, the EC6’s R&D cycle of less than two years is somewhat “unbelievable”.
In this regard, on NIO day at the end of 2019, NIO President Qin Lihong revealed the answer:
Weilai launched EC6 this time, on the one hand, to further expand ES6 to a wider range of users, and on the other hand to block Tesla’s (not yet delivered) Model Y.
In fact, Tesla launched the Model 3 localized model earlier, but at that time (2019Q3 conference call) Weilai’s attitude was:
Although the Model 3 is about the same price as our ES6, the product market is different. Our car is more competitive, and overall we are very confident.
The change in attitude was so great that NIO’s two main models at that time, ES8 and ES6, were SUVs, and Model 3 was a sedan, which naturally had little impact; while the localized Model Y was an SUV. ?
Frightened, Weilai launched a unilateral “spy war” against Model Y.
At the EC6 press conference, uncharacteristically, the price was not announced, and he bluntly said that he was ready to cross the river by touching the “Model Y”.
“There will be other equally excellent luxury electric coupe SUVs on the market next year, such as Tesla’s Model Y, please allow us to maintain some flexibility.” Li Bin said at the scene.
After 7 months of covering up, the price of the EC6 at the 2020 Chengdu Auto Show has finally been announced:
Originally, according to international practice, the price of coupe models is usually 10% higher than that of ordinary models, such as Mercedes-Benz GLC coupe (470,000-560,000) and GLC (40-480,000).
In other words, the price of EC6 is more expensive than ES6. In fact, if the subsidies and configuration are taken into account, the price of EC6 is several thousand dollars cheaper than ES6.
The pricing of EC6 is lower than expected, which is a hidden “scheme”.
In March 2020, the Model Y model was delivered in the North American market, and Tesla China’s official website gave an offer of 488,000 for the Model Y long-range version.
The highest price of EC6 is 468,000, which is lower than the price quoted on Tesla’s official website. In addition, as a battery replacement model, it can also enjoy nearly 20,000 subsidies that Model Y cannot enjoy. It is much more attractive than Model Y. .
In Li Bin’s words: We have to set the price in place, and then it must be ES6+EC6 to play Model Y together.
However, the “spy network” was laid out for a long time and was defeated by Tesla. In January 2021, the localized Model Y was launched, and the starting price was 148,100 lower than the official website quotation, which was tens of thousands lower than the EC6.
At the same time, the once “unanimous external” idea eventually became ES6 and EC6 “internal fight”.
According to the big data of Autohome, the top 3 competing car series of NIO EC6 are NIO ES6, Model Y, and Ideal ONE.
In other words, the biggest competitor of NIO EC6 is not Model Y, but the “brother” ES6. It can be seen that the major automotive forums are full of posts on “Which to buy, Weilai EC6 or ES6”.
Under the “dimension reduction impact” of Model Y and its own “infighting”, the sales of ES6 and EC6 gradually slowed down, especially EC6, the climbing trend stopped after 3 months of delivery, and sales have been hovering at 2,000 units about.
In contrast, the monthly sales of Model Y are rising steadily.
However, the sales effect of new and old models is not good, and Weilai’s life in the second half of 2021 is notoriously difficult.
“Envy” domestic BMW X5 is in high demand, ES7 will be delivered within two months of release
From the second half of last year to the present, there has been a lot of talk about NIO’s “falling behind”. But NIO does not seem to be caught up in sales anxiety, as its management said in the 2021Q4 conference call:
The market capacity of medium and large 5-seat SUVs above 400,000 is about 200,000, and the market segment demand is still growing. NIO is confident to gain a significant share in this field.
The origin of confidence is related to the opening of another window in the market.
BMW’s flagship model X5 is localized. The new car is a big five-seat SUV. The entry-level price is nearly 100,000 yuan lower than that of the imported model. At the same time, the configuration has also been upgraded: the length of the whole vehicle is increased by 130 mm to 5060 mm, and the wheelbase is increased. to 3105 mm.
You know, the imported BMW X5 starts at a price of 699,900 yuan, and the top model exceeds 800,000 yuan, but it has won the top sales among the models at the same price.
And the localized X5 “increases the quantity and reduces the price”, the popularity is not difficult to predict. The data shows that, after delivery in April this year, sales in May rose to 4,863 units. There was even a shortage of car sources, and dealers once sold cars at a higher price.
“Envy” market demand potential, Weilai once again adjusted its product pipeline release.
Originally, according to NIO’s original product planning rhythm, that is, entering the market with medium and large SUVs, and then releasing medium SUVs, compact SUVs and sedans in sequence, ES8 and ES6 are in this order.
It was supposed to be a compact model, but it was launched against the X5’s mid-to-large SUV ES7, and it was launched very hastily.
In February this year, Qin Lihong revealed for the first time that this car is ES7, a medium and large five-seat pure electric SUV, and the starting price of the vehicle may be above 400,000.
Immediately after the June press conference, the specific delivery time was announced-August 28. Users only need to wait 2 months to pick up the car, which undoubtedly sets a record for the fastest delivery.
At the same time, Weilai has been continuously marketing this new car: it is lower than the price of the domestic BMW X5, and its performance is still very good.
According to Li Bin’s words: Regardless of whether it is a gas truck or a tram, in the price range of 400,000 to 500,000, ES7 is the ceiling of 5 medium and large SUVs.
With this preparation, the management is optimistic about the ES7’s sales expectations again: sales can refer to the X5.
But in fact, NIO’s current best-selling model ES6 has a total sales of 47,000 within 12 months (July 21-June 22), which is not as good as the sales of imported X5 in 2021. The sales target of ES7 is really easy. achieve?
summary
Although it is the “first person” of smart electric vehicles in China, Weilai’s product planning rarely sees the reflection of “target user needs”.
The launch of many of its products is based on the rapid adjustment of market conditions, such as financial pressure, the star model ET7 was delivered 2 years late; panicked by the possible sales suppression of Model Y localization, hurriedly launched EC6 to fight; The stimulated market demand space, and the rapid delivery of the benchmark new ES7.
In a word, NIO’s product pipeline often changes with changes in the general environment, showing a tendency to short-term adjustment, and it lacks strategic determination.
(Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s point of view and does not represent the position of Sina.com.)
This article is reproduced from: http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-14/doc-imizirav3445619.shtml
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.