1. The moment of hesitation, which is the bottom?
After the market closed on August 4, someone sent a private message to Borg: ” At this point in medicine, extend the time for 5 years and look back. Is this a bottom area? “
When he saw this question, Wangjing Borg was also hesitant. Pharmaceuticals had just bounced off the market bottom, then fell again, and was on the verge of hitting a new low. My heart is not afraid of new lows, but I am afraid that there is hope for medicine again, and then the hope is dashed again. It is estimated that many investors have experienced the same hesitation as me.
Borg posted this question on Weibo, and I screened out a few classic responses:
(1) I have been investing in medicine since last year, and it is still negative, which has fallen to the lowest point in the past three years.
(2) When I subscribed for the Hang Seng Internet Index for 1 yuan at the beginning of last year, I thought that although the Internet had risen a little in the past, it represented the greatest company in China, and if the time was extended to 5 years, there would definitely be good returns. And now I just want to be able to pay back the money in my lifetime, now it’s 4 cents and 7.
(3) Centralized procurement is a destructive procurement, azithromycin 5 yuan for 6 capsules, and montmorillonite 4 yuan for 12 bags. As those who spent 1.5 million medical expenses, we can say that we have a lot of say. Common medicines are cheap, and we still have to rely on imported medicines to treat diseases. The inspection fee is the money that the hospital can make. Now there are many inspections, and it is very cautious to prescribe medicine (it is estimated that it is a doctor).
It can be seen from the messages that everyone has great differences on the future of medicine. Some people choose to stick to it, and some people choose to quit. Is the current medicine the bottom of the next five years?
Wangjing Boge found the CSI Pharmaceutical Index code 399933 (including all stocks related to medicine and medical care in the CSI 800):
On August 4, 2022, the index is almost 10,000 points, let’s make a mark here and see it in five years.
Boger currently holds the Li Shizhen pharmaceutical portfolio, plus a part of the CSI Medical and Hang Seng Medical Index. Li Shizhen’s portfolio is still 80-90% profitable. Boger’s current profit is 55.6% lower than the portfolio profit, which is estimated to be caused by the increase in positions later. The highest profit in history has reached 140%, and there is no take profit!
2. Industry growth and valuation
(1) The biggest increase this week is chips. This game of great powers should accelerate the process of domestic replacement of chips. Many people say that the current chips are the new energy vehicles three or four months ago, which means that the chips will continue to rise. In fact, the chip industry is the industry with the largest decline this year. Whether it will rise in the future depends on the sales of consumer electronics and the process of domestic substitution.
At the end of the past year (the high point of Xinneng car), Borg cleared the warehouse to stop the profit of the new energy car. If it missed the rebound of the new energy car this year, the rise of the chip did not miss this time, because there was no profit-taking chip at the high level last year. In addition, Borg There was a Spider-Man combination before (new energy car, chip, 5G + medicine), which was relocated to a heavy chip by the new manager before the end of last year, and now the new name is called Tech Man (net worth increased on August 5th) 4.16%).
(2) This week, automobiles, real estate, and household appliances have made more corrections. Others’ cars have risen more and have made more corrections. Real estate and household appliances have indeed suffered a bit. Recently, I saw that Tianjin has introduced measures to sell houses as gifts to families. The original intention was to let developers give away more home appliances and reduce house prices. In fact, the house is not easy to sell, and the home appliances will inevitably be affected. If the house is tied to the home appliance, it is estimated that the house will not be sold well either. The two Borgs also own it. I regret buying real estate now. , Home appliances feel that they should continue to hold, and the price of looking for bulk commodities has dropped compared to before, and the profits of home appliance companies should also be better.
Action this week:
(1) Continue to invest in the China-Europe Investment Advisory Portfolio, as well as Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Medical Index Fund;
(2) When the market fell sharply on Tuesday, a Hamburg CSI 1000 was launched. At present, it seems that it is slightly profitable. In the future, there is a game of funds in the market. It is estimated that large-cap stocks will have little chance, and small-cap stocks will be considered.
I’ll talk about it here today,
Pay attention to Wangjing Borg, and invest all the way!
$Minray Medical(SZ300760)$ $WuXi Biologics(02269)$
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