This table is compiled based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in which domestic consumption is obtained by adding imports plus production minus exports.
It can be seen from the table that the average growth rate of China’s chip demand in the past three years is 22.7%, and the average growth rate of production in the past three years is 25.3%. China’s chips have always been imported, and import substitution has accelerated in the past two years.
From a global perspective, chips are a mature industry with a history of more than 60 years and an output value of more than 3 trillion yuan. The compound annual growth rate of chip output value from 2015 to 2021 is 5.8%. Chips are not a high-growth industry. Looking at the growth of the global chip industry, chips have a certain periodicity and are a cyclical growth industry. Why does our country have continuous high growth? After a long period of development, the global industrial division of labor has shifted. China has become a major global manufacturing country, and intelligence has become the development direction of the manufacturing industry. The core technology of intelligence is chips, and China has become a major consumer of chips. Therefore, from the table, the growth rate of China’s chip imports and demand is much higher than the global growth rate.
Chip is a complex industry with multiple processes. The global division of labor cooperates to complete different processes. Design, manufacturing and packaging are the three major processes of chips. Packaging is a low-tech labor-intensive business. Chip packaging is mainly completed in mainland China and Malaysia. However, high-value designs are monopolized by Europe and the United States, and chip manufacturing is concentrated in the Gulf of China and South Korea. In recent years, a very small number of Chinese companies headed by Huawei HiSilicon have achieved technological breakthroughs in chip design and can design high-end chips, but they are limited in chip manufacturing capacity, and chip manufacturing has become the biggest bottleneck in China’s chip production. . In the chip manufacturing process, China currently has two key technologies that are still very backward – chip manufacturing equipment and materials. At present, the overall localization rate of chip equipment and materials is around 12%, and chip manufacturing equipment and materials have become the largest in China’s chip industry. Stuck neck item.
From a global perspective, this year should not be a high boom cycle for chips, and the overall growth rate of the industry will not be high or will decline, but for China, the general trend of import substitution will not change in the next few years. Most of the chip equipment and material companies are on the way to accelerate localization.
Make a mathematical model: For example, in 2021, the Chinese market in a certain segment of the chip will be 1,000 billion yuan, and the localization rate will be 10%, that is, Chinese enterprises will account for 100 billion yuan. In 2022, the industry will not grow, but the localization rate will increase to 12%, that is Chinese enterprises will account for 120 billion yuan, which is a 20% growth rate for Chinese enterprises.
2021 is a high boom cycle for global chips. This is mainly reflected in the rise in the volume and price of chips. In addition to enjoying the rise in volume in chip design, the biggest benefit for companies is the rise in price. Different types of products have different supply and demand relationships. The more the increase, the more production capacity may be increased in 2022, the supply and demand relationship of some types of products will be reversed, and the price drop will be greatly damaged in 2022. In 2022, a considerable number of chip design companies will decline in performance. The logic of a high chip boom cycle in 2022 is difficult to establish, but the logic of China’s chip import substitution will be established for a long time. Import substitution is the most basic logic for investing in chip stocks.
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