Investment Summary
Temperature control is of great significance to ensure the stability of batteries, chips, industry and commerce, and other environmental stability. Under the background of green + intelligent upgrades, the arrival of 100 billion space is accelerating. Temperature control technology is widely used in industries, communications, consumer electronics, new energy, power batteries and other scenarios to ensure the normal and stable operation of original devices such as batteries and the stability of industrial and other environments. The driving forces for the vigorous development of the temperature control industry mainly include: 1) The increase in the installed capacity of new energy has opened up the blue ocean market of energy storage temperature control; 2) In the context of stricter PUE audits of data centers, temperature control has become the focus of upgrading and transformation; 3) The penetration rate of new energy vehicles Continued improvement has driven both the volume and price of automotive thermal management; 4) The upgrade of 4G mobile phones to 5G has led to a 3-4 times increase in unit value, and under the background of continuous upgrading of thermal density and intelligence, enterprises are upgrading from products to services, which further opens up the imagination space.
According to our calculations, the domestic temperature control industry market space is expected to exceed 190 billion yuan by 2025, and energy storage is a highly flexible track: 1) From the perspective of space, it is expected that in 2025, data centers, energy storage, new energy vehicle battery management, and The mobile phone temperature control market space is expected to exceed 400, 120, 175 (507 for the vehicle), and 62 billion yuan respectively; 2) From the perspective of growth rate, energy storage, new energy vehicle batteries, data centers, and mobile phone temperature control in 2021-2025 The average annual compound growth rate is 63%, 26%, 17%, and 14%, respectively. The rest of the industrial fields maintain an average growth rate of 10% as a whole, and the temperature control flexibility of energy storage is the highest.
Thermal upgrade + intelligence, liquid cooling technology is expected to become the main trend. The underlying technologies of temperature control are mainly divided into: air cooling, chilled water (indirect evaporative cooling), liquid cooling, phase change materials, electronic heat dissipation technology (heat dissipation by thermal conductive materials, heat dissipation by heat pipes, soaking plate), etc. At present, air cooling is used in the current stock scenarios. Mainly, the proportion of indirect evaporative cooling and liquid cooling technologies is increasing. We believe that with the acceleration of computing power upgrade, greening and intelligence, liquid cooling has the advantages of high heat dissipation power density, low energy consumption, low noise, stable effect, uniform heat dissipation, and can prolong the service life of batteries/chips. become the main trend in the future. We analyze that liquid cooling is expected to achieve cross-industry technology sharing in IDC, power batteries, energy storage batteries, etc., reduce development costs, and accelerate popularization.
From the perspective of enterprise development strategy, cross-application scenarios bring economies of scale, and platform-based development helps reduce costs and increase efficiency, enabling long-term growth. The choice of cross-field development among different sub-industries can break the size limit of a single industry and improve the medium and long-term space. In order to better solve the characteristics of product diversification and strong customization in the temperature control industry, it can take: 1) Choose Cut into industries with a certain degree of relevance; 2) Build a platform-based R&D procurement model; 3) Develop standardized technology modules; 4) Increase R&D investment to increase product value and other methods.
Long-term optimistic about the high-quality companies with cross-industry layout in the temperature-controlled blue ocean track, taking into account the high-resilience stocks in the high-boom track. We believe that under the background of the digital wave and energy revolution, the temperature control track has a long-term and broad growth space, which is worthy of key layout. With the thermal density + intelligent upgrade, the value and share of leading manufacturers are expected to further increase. The above focuses on companies that have a layout and application of liquid cooling technology. Long-term optimistic about the temperature control leading companies with multi-track layout + platform advantages, while taking into account high-resilience stocks in high-prosperity tracks such as data centers, energy storage, and new energy vehicles.
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