This market has nothing to do with fundamentals, and no one analyzes fundamentals.
Institutions open and close their mouths are macroscopic, what domestic economy is not good, what is foreign G off;
A large group of sub-institutions, holding tens of billions of funds, are not studying the fundamentals of the company. They are studying macro, style switching, market games, and poor expectations every day. It is no wonder that A-share YYSQ (always 3,000).
This board is full of panic boards, there is nothing to say, that’s all.
If anything, there are probably close to 2,000 stocks below their April 27 lows.
Now it is a relative bottom, if not an absolute bottom.
If you think it will break below the low of 427 this time, it is easy to buy early; if you still believe in value, then continue to look down.
Although the current market is still very depressed, the market is still switching game styles; short-term market fluctuations are inevitable.
However, from a medium and long-term perspective, some long-term logic is clear (economic transformation and industrial upgrading), and the medium-term performance is growing rapidly, but the short-term valuation has become increasingly reasonable, which is undoubtedly the only time to increase positions after 427.
According to the three major elements of short-term valuation, interim performance, and long-term logic, I divide the current market into the following categories of stocks:
The first category is the concept stocks with no theme. When there is no main line in the market, funds love to speculate. I will never participate in this kind of game, and the game will not work;
The second category is stocks with cheap short-term valuations but flawed mid- and long-term logic; such stocks will only have small opportunities for valuation repairs in the future, so they can only participate appropriately and should not be placed heavily; Risky CXO, etc.;
The third category is the top stocks with logic and performance, but the valuation expectations are relatively sufficient; patiently wait for a reasonable valuation; such stocks are such as the common Mao (Maotai Haitian Pien Tze Huang Aier Ophthalmology, etc.);
The fourth category is that the market is overly pessimistic, the valuation is extremely cheap, but the interim results can be repaired, and the long-term logic is better than market expectations; these stocks are secondary targets.
For example, some pharmaceutical stocks (pharmacies and blood products) without centralized procurement risks, consumer stocks that can be repaired after the epidemic, and real estate chains (home building materials, etc.); such stocks can wait for the transformation of uncertainty to see if there is any follow-up policy. relaxed expectations;
The fifth category is segmented industry leaders (top three in the industry) or invisible champions with good long-term logic, high mid-term performance flexibility, and reasonable short-term valuations.
They are in line with the new semi-military and high-end manufacturing of economic transformation and industrial upgrading; the investment duration of such stocks will be very long, as long as the valuation is reasonable, they should be held in the medium term and should not be easily missed; especially, many stocks have reached historically low valuations Or the lowest valuation in recent years, as long as the storm passes, a rainbow is destined to appear.
At present, the market is still in a bear market atmosphere, and short-term expectations and confidence are relatively pessimistic. At this time, we must have a big picture.
The first is the long-term decline in interest rates, the era of real estate is gone forever, and high- quality equity is scarce ;
The second is the great transfer of wealth . The era of real estate investment has passed. There are really not many places where residents’ wealth can go. The stock market is a good destination.
Finally, now is the worst time. In the throes of the epidemic, war, anti-globalization and economic transformation, corporate profits have bottomed out, and valuations are also rare bottoms . It is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic, but to increase research and actively deploy high-quality equity. .
At present, after thinking about it, I really believe that increasing the investment ratio of high-quality equity is the most important thing.
I still remember that 2018 was also a year of pessimism, but then a vigorous bull market of core assets started.
Now I also look down at the difficulties and look up at all kinds of uncertainties, as if the world has no hope, but the more this is the case, the more optimistic I must be.
Because human nature has cycles, and industries also have cycles. Now is the bottom of the cycle. It will not be worse, and the future will only be better.
$Ningde Times(SZ300750)$ $BYD(SZ002594)$ $LONGi Green Energy(SH601012)$
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