The previous article published in May- buying chickens and watching pigs, pigs raise chickens , according to the pig-chicken ratio, it is predicted that the end of April will be the bottom price, which is the starting point for the stock price of this white chicken stock cycle (note that I am talking about following the price of pigs) The white chicken stock cycle , which changes every 4 years, is not the white chicken cycle, the chicken cycle is much shorter), and now looking back, it is already confirmed.
When it comes to cycles, the core of research is nothing more than supply and demand. Whether it is a decrease in supply, an increase in demand, or a combination of the two, the mismatch between supply and demand caused by it is the root cause of the surge in cyclical stocks.
The supply of white chickens is nothing more than grandparents, parental generations, commodity generations and chicken. Among them, the simplest, most direct, and most controllable indicator is definitely the grandparents data, especially the number of grandparents introduced is the most violent. That is to say, the supply of white chickens only needs to keep an eye on the number of introduced ancestors, whether it is the parent generation or the commodity generation that follows, no matter how it changes, it will return to its original shape after 60 weeks. And the most critical point, the only thing that can be accurate for these indicators is the number of ancestral generations introduced, and the number of other commercial generations of parental generations. No one dares to say that their statistics are 100% correct, just like the official statistics of live pigs. Even Nengfan cannot be accurate and effective, because no one can guarantee that the reported data will not be false, not to mention that there are more private data that cannot be counted. The result is the recent wave of violent increases in pig prices.
What are the needs of the white chicken? It must be the consumption of chicken, but the rise and fall of chicken prices does not reflect the rise and fall of the white chicken stock very well, and I am buying chickens to see pigs, which is clearly put forward in the article Zhu Yangjixing , the core point of view is Pig prices, because of the strong correlation between pigs and chickens, and in the context of the absolute proportion of pork in China’s meat consumption, chicken is more dependent on the “wink” of pork, and the volatility of chicken stocks follows a four-year cycle. It’s no surprise that pig cycles ebb and flow.
In addition, since the research is on stock prices, it is definitely impossible to escape the indicator of the big market bulls and bears. In a big bear market, the mud and sand are often falling, and no matter how strong the cycle is, individual stocks will inevitably pull back sharply; and once a big bull market starts, it will be a chicken and a dog. , Flying Pigs.
Let’s first review the previous two white chicken stock cycles.
The white chicken stock cycle starting from 2014 (the low point of pig chicken price in April 2014 – the high point in February 2017)
Share price: Yisheng 2.29-18.24, up 700%; Minhe 6.18-35.26, up 470%; Shengnong 6.39-25.81, up 300%
Chicken price: first rise, then fall and then rise
Pig price: 11-20, up 80%
Introduction: more than 1.5 million sets in 2013 – less than 700,000 sets in 2016, a substantial decrease
Market: Bear market bottom, bull market start
Supply and demand core: 2014-2015 super bird flu caused supply (ancestral introduction) to decrease
White chicken stock cycle starting from 2018
Share price: Yisheng 3.95-21.42, up 440%; Minhe 9.18-41.02, up 350%; Shengnong 12.08-30.72, up 150%
Chicken prices: sharp drop after shock rise
Pig price: 14-40, up 180%
Introduction: less than 700,000 sets in 2016 – more than 1.2 million sets in 2019, a substantial increase
Market: Bear market bottom, bull market start
The core of supply and demand: the surge in chicken demand caused by the surge in pork under the super African plague
This round of white chicken stock cycle (the low price of pig and chicken in April 2022—?)
Share price: Currently Yisheng 8-11.7, up 46%; Minhe 13.83-17.78, up 29%; Shengnong 15.55-22.29, up 43%
Chicken prices: now fluctuating after rising
Pig price: currently 13-28, up 200%
Introduced: More than 1.2 million sets in 2021 – an estimated 800,000 sets this year, a substantial decrease
Market: the bottom area of the bear market, whether it is the starting point of the bull market, etc.
The core of supply and demand: it will be a double shock of supply and demand superimposed by the unprecedented shortage of supply under the avian flu and the violent rebound after the slump in pig prices and chicken stocks
The resonance brought by the previous wave of ASF made the profit of chickens and pigs hit a record high, and at the same time the end of the cycle also brought the largest historical losses. Pig stocks directly brought Zhengbang to the brink of bankruptcy, and chicken stocks also had Fengxiang shares. It began to sell shares, and Xiantan shares, which never lost money, also suffered losses for two consecutive quarters.
Yisheng’s quarterly profit
Minhe’s quarterly profit
Single-season profit of Sunnong Development
Single-quarter profit of Xiantan shares
All the conditions for the first two rounds have been fulfilled in this round. The introduction of ancestors caused by the most serious bird flu in history has declined sharply. After the outbreak of A.F., the price of chicken feathers has rebounded stronger than expected. Avian flu superimposes super strong demand, and the cycle increase of this wave is also likely to surpass the previous two times, achieving a super white chicken stock cycle .
$ Minhe Shares (SZ002234)$ $ Shengnong Development (SZ002299)$ $ Yisheng Shares (SZ002458)$
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