Considering that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next ten years will be 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%, respectively, the PE will be 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 times after ten years (currently calculated at 38 times PE). ), and the long-term compound annualized rate of return of Kweichow Moutai is roughly as shown in the following table (the market value of the last column is calculated at 40 times PE).
1. My psychological expectation is that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next ten years is 15%, and the PE is 25 times, and the annualized rate is about 10.28%. According to the most optimistic situation in the table, the compound growth rate of net profit in the next ten years is 20%, and the PE is 40 times. I’m a little skeptical about this).
2. It can be seen from the table that it is the net profit growth rate (fundamentals) that determines the long-term yield of Moutai in the future. The impact of changes in valuation is secondary, and the certainty of Kweichow Moutai is quite guaranteed, which may is a key factor to consider when making an investment decision.
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