$Kweichow Moutai (SH600519)$ Kweichow Moutai announced that the net profit in the first three quarters was about 44.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.14%. The net profit in the third quarter was 14.606 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81%.
It is meaningless to interpret the performance growth of a quarter, it is the key to look at the general trend——
As a brand enterprise on the addiction track, Moutai has the attributes of addiction, fast-moving consumer goods, and luxury goods (light luxury). Decreasingly, we can observe 3 10 years of Moutai:
In 2003, Moutai’s revenue was 2.401 billion and net profit was 586 million;
In 2012, Moutai’s revenue was 26.455 billion and net profit was 13.308 billion;
In 2022, Moutai’s revenue is expected to be 125.8 billion and net profit is expected to be 65 billion
From 2003 to 2012, in the past 9 years, Moutai’s revenue has grown by about 30% annually, and its net profit has grown by 41%.
From 2012 to 2022, the annual growth rate of Moutai’s revenue is about 15%, and the net profit is about 17%;
What is the growth rate of Moutai in the next ten years? We think it will be around 10%!
The general trend of marginal decline in the growth rate is irreversible. It is impossible for the long-term growth rate to become faster and faster. It can only become slower and slower. This is common sense and a law. Expansion, we believe that it is impossible to violate this common sense law.
From January 2014, Maotai’s valuation PEttm has increased from 9 times to 73 times PEttm times in 2021. We believe that this is a big Davis double-click cycle, almost 10 years. For an enterprise, this cycle It has been long enough. We judge that Maotai is ushering in a Davis double-kill cycle (slowing performance + declining valuation), and it is expected that 15-20 times PEttm is the bottom, and the stock price corresponding to the current performance is between 750-1000!
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