In the “[Fund Investment Advisor 2022 4th Quarter Strategy Report 2022.10.09] Rebound, Reversal and Long-Term Returns” we released on October 9, we expressed our core view that “performance determines the rebound, capital determines the reversal, Strategy + confidence determines long-term returns.” From the past week, listed companies with better forecasts in the third quarterly report have been recognized by market funds. It seems that the long-term market trend is determined by the formula: performance, funds + good Strategy and confidence = good investing experience.
However, in the short term, it is emotions that determine the market trend. The market continued to adjust to pessimism in the first half of the week. On Tuesday, the trading volume between the two markets hit a record of more than 560 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest intraday price on Wednesday. probe 2934.09 points;
However, after the second half of the week, the market turned quickly, and optimism induced a sustained rebound. In the end, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.57% throughout the week to close at 3071.99 points (straight flush, 2022.2022.10.10-1022.10.14), and the trading volume of the two markets on Friday increased to More than 860 billion. (Data from straight flush, 2022.10.14)
Kind of magical.
It seems that the sentiment of 1 ounce far exceeds the impact of the fact of 1 pound on the market (1 ounce = 0.0625 pound), and the sentiment affects the short-term trend of the market. We can’t make reasonable deductions for short-term things, and the occasional and irregular pattern determines that this is a process of constantly making mistakes, correcting them, and constantly playing against ourselves. This requires a lot of time, energy and ability. Ordinary investors do not have such conditions on a basic basis, let alone struggle with human nature in the end.
We should choose more to believe in common sense, respect the law, and constantly peel off the cocoons. From various phenomena and changes in fundamentals, we should look for the big logic and long logic of medium and long-term investment, and find a way that suits human nature and does not require repeated error correction and entanglement. The investment methods and methods of friends of time, with a clear goal to find the way of wealth appreciation belonging to more ordinary investors.
Below are some thoughts on our weekly strategy for the week, just for reference.
1. From a technical point of view, it will drop to a low point again
(Data source: Straight flush, 2021.04.01-2022.10.14)
This round started from 3723.85 points of the Shanghai Composite Index in February 2021. After more than one year of adjustment, it dropped to 2863.65 points on April 27, 2022, and then ushered in a strong rebound;
This time it dropped to 2934.09 on Wednesday, October 12.
2. Many aspects of information have the expectation of bottom balance
In addition to technical graphics, a lot of information is also gradually entering the bottom equilibrium trend.
In terms of US dollar interest rate hikes, although the Fed is currently aggressive and tough, in terms of expectation management, the market’s expectations for the benchmark interest rate have been raised to the 5% line;
Under such expectation management, the market is generally able to accept the final interest rate hike expectation of two interest rate meetings at the end of November and December, and the expectation has been raised to 75+50 basis points. The market has already reacted to this very aggressive situation in advance.
Judging from the current data feedback from various parties, the intensity and impact of interest rate hikes have gradually entered the later stage.
Domestically, in addition to the epidemic, at present, in terms of performance, there is a relatively high probability that the third quarter will become the final low point. The fourth quarter of 2021, especially the first half of 2022, will be affected by many factors, and the base will be relatively low, including real estate in the The domestic market has also gradually stabilized, and in terms of month-on-month and year-on-year data, it is possible to remain moderately optimistic.
3. Beware of excessive pessimism
But even so, we need to make enough expectations on the emotional side, and beware of extreme situations after market pessimism is overdone, especially the collapse of investor confidence due to pessimism.
After all, there are still a few hidden worries and possibilities here.
First, we don’t know whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rate expectations in the end. On the one hand, we can only deduce based on common sense. On the other hand, the information we have is not enough to draw absolute results. The intensity of rate hikes still depends on the Fed’s ultimate goal.
Second, the development of the epidemic.
Third, if the development of the above situation is more extreme, will investors’ confidence be greatly affected, which will lead to large-scale redemption.
4. Reasonable formulation of investment strategies
More counts more wins, less counts less wins, not invincible.
Think more about everything, think about all possibilities, and make plans in advance, so that you can go with the flow and gain something.
Based on the current market situation in the bottom area, from the perspective of our Yinhua Dimensity-Quiet Ying and Nian Nianhong strategies, our family will continue to maintain the strategy of heavy positions and continuous fixed investment and increase positions, and grasp and attach importance to the opportunity of the market consolidating and oscillating at the bottom. .
However, we still remind everyone to stick to the principle of investing with spare money. Only in this way can we still maintain an impatient attitude and patience in the event of extreme situations.
In addition to pessimism, what should we do if there is another situation in the market, that is, a rapid rise?
Judging from the current situation, if the basic layout has been completed, then the market has experienced a relatively rapid and large rise. At that time, it is necessary to rethink the strategy and direction of fixed investment;
If the basic layout has not been completed yet, the market will see a relatively large and rapid rise. This question is difficult to answer, because once a round of the market gets out of the predicament, the best opportunity may have passed, and it depends on the individual’s tolerance. The ability to withdraw and the situation of idle funds are to make specific decisions.
In terms of investment direction, we still maintain a balanced and decentralized strategy, continue our view in the 4th quarter strategy report, and continue to be optimistic about the 4th quarter market of Hong Kong stocks, medical equipment, seed industry and aquaculture.
When to return to the strategy of relatively concentrated positions, we also need to rethink and adjust in light of changes in the market and fundamentals. At present, a balanced and decentralized strategy is more suitable for the current market.
Summarizing the core points of this week’s weekly strategy:
1. Cherish the investment opportunities in the bottom area, but also need to remain moderately cautious to prevent extreme situations.
2. Balanced and dispersed, with appropriate emphasis on medicine and medical care, the direction of Hong Kong stocks, and basic consumption.
3. Continue to maintain the weekly fixed investment and start the car, and it is expected to continue to implement our family fixed investment doubling plan.
risk warning
This article does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, and investment should be cautious.
Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, cannot guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy statement, fully understand the portfolio details and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio meets their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment objectives. Investors investing in fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies should follow the principle of “buyer is conceited”. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operational characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies, they should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own circumstances. Combining strategies, making investment decisions prudently, and taking investment risks independently. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee the certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a guarantee of capital. The risk characteristics of a fund’s portfolio strategy are different from those of a single fund product. The past performance of investment advisory services is not indicative of its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that the fund investment consulting institution cannot continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky and investment should be cautious. . $Yinhua Dimensity-Quiet Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Dimensity-Nian Nianhong(TIAA041001)$ #fund creator incentive#
@大徐子@王牛先生HY @李海斌 sentiment index @fund complex fund @Ricky @i prefect
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