People often scold our pharmaceutical investment fund. You have fallen by 50% in the past year. You still have the face to say value investment. . .
It is true that the pullback is so large that everyone is uncomfortable, but I have never felt ashamed, just indignant! The performance growth of our beloved pharmaceutical stocks has not dropped at all. Instead, they have maintained high speed and stability against the macro backdrop of a serious economic downturn!
Let me ask, who described medicine and medical care as a rising field of technological innovation at one time, and a welfare industry at another time? Then discarded it like a sham, most of the blue chips in medicine fell by 70-80%, and the valuation of the CSI Medical Index fell below an outrageous 23 times!
Well, it has started to rise now. Some people say that the results of centralized procurement in some areas are mild and higher than expected; some people say that the finance has given discount loans to support the procurement of domestic medical equipment.
And I think that the medical and medical stocks are just the return of the king, just opening the road to rehabilitate!
Moreover, there is a rare turning point in the resonance of multiple factors, which is the multiple bottom of “valuation, allocation, policy, and market”!
“Basket of Valuation”:
I always tell people that the price trend that is opposite to the performance is called volatility in the short term, but what about the long term? Call a hooligan! Whether it is up or down, it is the people who are greedy or fearful! Maybe sometimes, this kind of hooliganism is too much, but it must be revealed after the fact! For example, the 6100 points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the 1600 points of the financial tsunami. Looking back, they are all greed and fear, and they are all hooligans!
So back to the pharmaceutical stocks, the dynamic valuation record of the CSI Medical Index is as high as 100 times, and the first drug centralized procurement in 2018, the plunge is only about 35 times, but a few days before the National Day, this The record was refreshed and fell by more than 30%, to below 23 times!
For segments such as CXO, medical equipment, medical services, biology, retail, etc., the performance has not declined significantly, but all kinds of “ghost stories” are flooding!
“Configuration bottom”:
In this market, the attitude of public funds is like a weather vane, but if they are used as a reverse indicator, it is also very useful, because no matter which big top or which big pit, they are actually the ones who broke it! Last year, when the valuation of medicine and medical care was at its highest, the average proportion of public funds allocated to medicine was almost 20%, and the pure medicine fund even had a fund manager who controlled over 100 billion yuan.
As a result, in the blink of an eye, when the ground is full of chicken feathers, the proportion of public funds allocated to medicine has dropped from 20% to only 5%. It is no wonder that so many large pharmaceutical blue-chips of hundreds of billions can drop so much. (Hengrui, WuXi , Aier Ophthalmology, Zhifei Bio, Changchun High-tech) last year, it was generally 300 billion yuan, and now all of them have fallen by more than two-thirds!
Public offerings that don’t feel bad about cutting other people’s flesh, please buy them back!
“Policy Bottom”:
There is an old saying, the person who calls the bell has to be tied! As we all know, in addition to the skyrocketing past, the sharp decline in medicine is also the continuous suppression of the medical cost control policy. Everyone is talking about centralized procurement! I personally participated in a research meeting in Shanghai, and 6-7 of the 10 questions were what would happen to centralized procurement?
In the pharmaceutical industry, the output value of the pharmaceutical industry has shrunk significantly because of centralized procurement. And everyone shivered and guessed who else would go to the execution ground for centralized collection? Even worried about whether there is milk powder or diapers? !
Therefore, stabilizing expectations is something that policies should do in particular. I like Premier Liu He’s words, “Everything must return to economic construction as the center, and any policy must consider the impact on the capital market”!
Therefore, more and more we see centralized procurement becoming moderate, no longer “soul bargaining”, and also seeing the implementation of various policies, which innovative drugs are not included in the list of payment by disease, and which innovative devices are not centralized procurement. There are also financial subsidized loans for emergency procurement of domestic medical equipment in various places. They even asked to work overtime during the National Day holiday to receive the 200 billion 0.75-interest loan. The money borrowed almost for nothing could buy much-needed equipment. Local governments and hospitals are also actively cooperating through the night!
The policy has been turned 180 degrees! At the very least, I don’t think you should be killed with a single stick. What should be protected and promoted should be rehabilitated and resolutely supported!
“Market Bottom”:
The market rebounded at the end of April because the Shanghai epidemic was basically under control, the market rebounded, and medicine kept up, and eventually fell back. This time the market fell below 3,000 points, and medicine took the lead in rebounding and went back with the market! This shows that the market sentiment recognizes medicine and regards medicine as a leader!
In the past, new energy hotspots, etc., are still being adjusted downwards repeatedly, which shows that the market hotspots are also switching, and the high-level expensive ones are giving way to the low-level cheap ones.
In a word, the rebound of medicine and medical care not only has good expectations for the top 20, but also has good expectations for the stable growth of medicine. As long as we don’t be intimidated by difficulties and believe in our national destiny, anything that deviates from the track will eventually be corrected! ! !
In the next ten years, the 60-year-old population will account for more than 30% of the total population. You, me, and him cannot stop taking medicine! ! !
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