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1. New energy vehicle investment, reinvent the wheel?
From the earliest demonstration and promotion of 1,000 new energy vehicles in ten cities, to the new energy vehicle market in the secondary market officially launched in 2014, to the rapid upgrade and iteration of the current new energy passenger models, the development and investment of the new energy vehicle industry has experienced For more than 8 years, the “subsidy” cycle started in 2014 ended at the end of 2016, and the low-end supply chain will be in a long-term slump. Driven by the dual credit and subsidy policy, a new round of “high-end” cycle is expected to be officially launched in 2018.
2. The last boom cycle: high subsidies
The 2014-2016 subsidy policy provided huge profit potential. A systematic industrial policy for China’s new energy vehicles started in 2009/2010, but it is mainly concentrated in pilot cities or the bus sector. High subsidies and lower thresholds have brought about a surge in the production and sales of new energy vehicles. Due to the huge room for policy arbitrage and the low technical requirements, which have brought incentives, in addition to large bus companies accelerating the electrification of public transport in first-tier cities, at the same time, small and medium-sized bus factories and modified car factories, together with large and small battery factories, are actively investing in new energy buses, especially light buses. production and sales.
3. Midstream shortage is the core contradiction
The rapid rise in the production and sales of new energy vehicles has brought about a situation where both the volume and price of the middle and upper reaches of the market are in short supply. Driven by the rapid increase in the volume of new energy vehicles, the global lithium resources were in a state of shortage in 2015 and 2016, and the price rose rapidly by 3-4 times in the short term.
4. 2018 is the first year of switching
New energy vehicle support policies directly promote the launch of high-end models and the upgrade of low-end models to high-end models. The proportion of sales of new energy vehicles in non-restricted areas has continued to increase, with models above A0 level contributing the main driving force, and the demand for mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles driven by non-license plates has gradually started.
5. New opportunities for the seven major sectors, subversion and reset?
Mechanical transmission is getting farther and farther away, and electric network connection is subverting the tradition. The era of electric network connection is coming, and the seven major sectors welcome new opportunities.
6. Lithium and cobalt resources: high-end models drive demand to accelerate
The mid-to-high-end development of new energy passenger vehicles has pushed up the average electric charge per vehicle. Lithium cobalt demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a CAGR of 40% and 50% in the next 8 years.
7. Three-electrical system: The electric motor control is in the beginning, and the battery is flourishing
Three-electrical integration to create the core power of electric vehicles. The powertrain system of new energy vehicles includes drive motor system (motor, electronic control) and battery system, commonly known as “big three power”.
8. Charging equipment: from zero to one, new opportunities in the blue ocean
New energy charging equipment blue ocean, new opportunities appear. New energy vehicle charging modules can be divided into on-board chargers, contact charging and inductive charging according to the two dimensions of configuration location and whether they are in contact with the public grid.
9. Thermal management system: the rise of the leader in the segment
The thermal management of new energy has become more sophisticated, and the value of bicycles has increased significantly. The thermal management system is a system that considers the heat transfer performance of the vehicle from the perspective of vehicle integration, and controls and optimizes heat transfer. Electrification drives high demand growth, and new energy vehicles have a broad space for thermal management. According to our forecast, based on the value of a single vehicle with a thermal management system for mid-to-low-end and mid-to-high-end new energy passenger vehicles of RMB 4,000 and RMB 8,000, we estimate that the thermal management market space for mid-to-low-end and mid-to-high-end new energy passenger vehicles in 2018 will be respectively RMB 2.22 billion and RMB 2.45 billion, and the market size in 2020 is RMB 1.66 billion and RMB 10.21 billion. The thermal management market for mid-to-high-end new energy passenger vehicles will usher in rapid growth
10. Autonomous driving: Autonomous driving is in the ascendant, ADAS has become the entrance
Automatic driving is gradually implemented, and new energy vehicles have become the main carrier. An autonomous car is a smart car that senses the road environment through the on-board sensing system, automatically plans the driving route and controls the vehicle to reach the predetermined target.
PDF full report download: New energy electric vehicle special topic – subsidy ends, high-end opens
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