My holdings have been on a hot streak recently, and medical equipment is booming. I felt that it was not cheap and attractive enough, so I made a small position reduction.
Liquor, which has a heavier position, continued to fall, which made me want to increase my position. But the liquor tickets I hold heavily have high growth expectations, and it will be ugly when killing logic. When it comes to the expected 23rd quarterly report, the decline makes me feel that it is relatively moderate and acceptable.
On the contrary, I was a little surprised that several liquor faucets and even the stock king Moutai fell this week. The trend of falling off the cliff is estimated to be due to the recent devaluation of soft sister Bi, and the sell-off of foreign capital has caused a certain degree of stampede, mainly due to fluctuations in market sentiment.
I went to the ‘Liquor Price Reference’ to have a look, and it was found that some Moutai products of some specifications fell slightly. But compared to the reference price of around 3K, the price dropped by 20 or 30 in 10 days and 8 days. I think it’s okay. Even if there are a few more fluctuations this week, it’s actually not a big drop.
For example, the price of Feitian 22-year FCL seen today is 3010, the price on October 6 is 3040, and the price on September 30 is 3050; today’s Feitian 22-year loose bottle is still 2715, and during the National Day, the price on October 6 The price is 2720, the price on September 30 is 2740. Obviously, compared to the stock price, I think the stock price must have overreacted. It is also possible that some people are holding the too good Moutai’s stable expectations, and the small fluctuations in the wine price in the market frighten those people.
I am in a group of experts in stock investment research. Among them, a big V with tens of thousands of fans said last year that there will be a major adjustment in Maotai. He estimates that it will fall below the range of 800-1000, or that the adjustment of Wuliangye PE will be close to your numbers. Then the liquor as a whole sees the bottom. The main reason given is that from 16 to 21 years, many liquors have increased by 30-50 times, and the comparable section in history is only colored. I don’t agree with the line drawing.
Some people think that it is too scary to be cut in half; some people say that it is not so scary, and it is much milder than Zhongbei; there are also big Vs who are optimistic about baijiu and feel that they have not fallen enough, and the industry itself is relatively strong; according to his words, some people interpret it even more To make up for the fall, because the valuation is high, the fund should passively lighten up its positions in response to redemption during the general downtrend. I feel a little “worried about giving new words”
I think that the overall dividend rate of the famous liquor listed companies is not too high, but they can be obtained. Looking at the cash flow, it is obviously real money. It’s normal to have a little bubble in the early stage, but I think it’s still very predictable under the bubble. Now I think the bubble is almost gone. The 16-year low is completely impossible to go back. Some people guessed that I was buried, I admit that it was a shallow set, and it was inevitable that my butt would command my head. But I also have my reasons, we can talk first if we agree or not.
I didn’t say it, but in my heart I hope that the liquor will fall by another 10~20%, so I can continue to increase the position. I personally estimate that the probability of Maotai falling below 1500 is not very high, but it is still possible, maybe 3~40%; below 1400, there is a 2~30% possibility; below 1300, maybe 1-20%. This last one is already my most pessimistic expectation. If it really slaps my face, I will find a way to make money and increase the position.
Considering that the domestic economic situation can basically be regarded as a weak recovery, domestic inflation is controllable, the United States continues to raise interest rates, and foreign countries are even worse, the domestic and foreign stock markets are likely to part ways. It can be seen that the leading real estate state-owned enterprises in China have stabilized, and the state has continued to take some measures and strategies to save the market. The domestic monetary policy is relatively loose and the liquidity is relatively ample, and there is not much possibility that A shares will continue to fall for a long time or by a large margin.
I have a basic judgment on the broader market and on the Shanghai Composite Index, that we will definitely not miss 3,000 points forever. Maybe in just one or two years, the Shanghai Composite Index may cross 3,000 points forever and will not step back. If I have to give a reason, it is possible that the deindustrialization of Europe will continue, and both China and the United States will benefit. Furthermore, it is my country’s new energy vehicle industry, which is obviously surpassing traditional powers such as Japan and Germany, and is upgrading together with a huge industrial chain. Both of these things help us get past the middle-income trap.
Some people say that baijiu is more of a fund-raising group. This is not very true, but it is not entirely wrong. I just thought that high-quality listed companies are actually relatively scarce, while famous liquor listed companies have more high-quality targets. Whether it is insurance capital, foreign capital, social security, or public and private equity funds, if you don’t buy high-quality companies to grow together, do you have to go to new energy and other tracks to gain the future? There may be stampede risks in places with too many people. Liquor is relatively deserted now, which I think is a good thing.
The growth of liquor may be weaker than that of the main track, but the moat is relatively stable. Even the famous wines of the 23rd line have a unique positioning in the minds of users. Taking into account the current traffic costs, it can be said that it is even more difficult for large funds outside the industry to create a famous wine brand. A few years ago, there were famous companies such as Lenovo and Wahaha. After investing a lot of money, they returned after killing feathers.
Another friend said that there are dealers who both stock wine and speculate in wine stocks. This kind of thing may be effective for small companies with a market value of less than 10 billion. Large listed wine companies are not only huge and difficult to control, but they have a series of means to control the inventory of dealers. What electronic scanning code, precise positioning, various advanced technologies and systems are available. According to recent industry research, most of the channel stocks of listed wine companies are benign. Generally speaking, about 2-3 months, manufacturers are skilled in controlling goods and prices.
For listed wine companies, the channel inventory that some people are afraid of collapses, I believe it will not come. Because of the cold winter of 1314, and the collapse of its accompanying channel inventory, it has taught the entire industry a profound enough lesson that no one will want to do it again.
Now there are rumors that dealers have too much inventory to sell. I guess I’m talking about no-name bars, especially those in Maotai Town. From time to time, I see advertisements for super cheap sauce and wine on WeChat. Taking advantage of the sauce and wine boom in the past two years, some people have made quick money, and now it is not easy to get rid of it, but who can they influence, can Maotai? Impossible. The moat of famous and high-quality liquor is comprehensive and three-dimensional. It has not only taste and taste, but also geographical and user mentality, as well as channels, and there is a threshold for marketing and advertising traffic. Not to mention any ancient cellars, who will break through It’s all too difficult.
Now more and more friends and funds recognize the benefits of famous liquor companies, such as excellent cash flow, strong ability to raise prices, inventory appreciation, low-intensity competition, high gross profit, high net profit, large-value fast-moving goods, and even luxury goods , Rarely requires R&D, and the industry has strong resilience. No matter how you look at it, it is very good. Most of the major shareholders are state-owned enterprises, they have relatively stable expectations, and there is no need for fraud.
I feel that most of the stocks of famous liquor companies are currently at a reasonably low valuation and are suitable for long-term holding. In particular, there are a few good tickets with a faster growth rate, which are even more attractive. Performance fluctuations in several quarters, I don’t think you need to care too much, just do a good job of screening. Especially since the epidemic will eventually pass, and the monthly line of Shanghai Airport is constantly rising, it has not turned losses yet, so why worry about better baijiu? I can sleep peacefully with it by myself anyway.
It’s too late today, let’s write this much first.
This article is a personal investment reflection and record, which inevitably has various limitations. The stocks mentioned in the article are all trying to scare shrimp. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Making money is not easy, losing money is easy. Remember to think independently and encourage each other.
Happy! Good luck!
#baijiu stock is forever dripping # #baijiu stock finally fell # #baijiu stock carnival continues#
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