Rongsheng Petrochemical, which was the first to announce its third quarterly report and caused a market uproar, was the only one that made a profit in Q3 in the large refining and chemical industry, showing the resilience of Zhejiang Petrochemical.
Before the large-scale refining and chemical production of Dongfang Shenghong, the profit contribution of photovoltaic eva accounted for a large proportion, and the overall profit enjoyed a high valuation. After the large-scale refining and chemical production was put into operation, the overall valuation level will approach Rongsheng and Hengli.
Hengli Petrochemical’s single-quarter taxes in the first three quarters of 2022 were 880 million, 1 billion, and 2 billion respectively. In the third quarter, the tax soared to 2 billion, an increase of 100% month-on-month, close to the total tax in 2021, and the largest tax It is the consumption tax, which indicates that this year, especially since the third quarter, Hengli Petrochemical has made efforts in the sales of refined oil, and blocked the mouths of those who say that Hengli sells intermediate chemicals to avoid consumption tax. But at the same time, it is necessary to think about whether the sharp increase in sales of refined oil against the background of equipment maintenance and overall load reduction in the third quarter is also one of the reasons for the decline in profits?
I listened to two conference calls today, one was from Xin Fengming, and I didn’t talk about the company’s management. Mainly talk about the process of the large refining and chemical project in Indonesia, which is briefly repeated here. The management of Xinfengming and Tongkun went to Indonesia on May 3, and came back on August 31. They stayed for 4 months. During the period, they completed the land framework agreement and the EIA, and the crude oil quotas have been implemented. During the Indonesian President’s visit to China in July, he met with the leaders of Xin Fengming and Tong Kun. On August 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs further docked. Last week, the project team further demonstrated the project in Beijing and revised the feasibility study report. On November 3, Tong Kun and Xin Fengming will go to the National Development and Reform Commission to report the feasibility study report. The scale of the first phase is 16 million tons, and the investment amount is controlled at 10 billion yuan. within US dollars.
The second is Hengyi Petrochemical. The main points are as follows: 1. The scale of the second phase of Brunei is 10 million tons and the investment amount is more than 8 billion US dollars. 2. The Brunei refinery made a profit of 54.92 million yuan in Q3, with 38.44 million yuan attributable to the parent. PTA bottle flakes made a profit of 183.59 million yuan, and polyester fiber lost 900 million yuan. 3. Brunei refineries lost US$200 million in Q3 product inventory, mainly gasoline and chemicals. 4. In the fourth quarter, it is hoped that the domestic polyester will improve month-on-month, and the foreign gasoline cracking difference will return to the normal level (the current negative cracking difference is abnormal).
Overall, companies in the large refining and chemical industry were hit hard in Q3, and the exchange rate, demand, and inventory were the worst in the past few years. At present, oil prices are still at the high level of the past 10 years. Non-refinery operations are in the comfort zone, and it is difficult for demand to recover strongly within the foreseeable one and a half years. The pressure of RMB depreciation still exists, and the operating environment is still relatively difficult. The harsh environment will also accelerate the reshuffle of the industry, eliminate backward production capacity, and the market share will further concentrate on the industry leaders. The big waves wash away the sand, and Fang shows the true character of the leader.
This is the time when the fundamentals of the industry are the worst, and it will also usher in the best time to invest in the industry leader.
$ Rongsheng Petrochemical (SZ002493)$ $ Hengli Petrochemical (SH600346)$ $ Tongkun (SH601233)$
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