Yesterday’s article was deleted at the request of the other party. Here I will respect the wishes of the speaker, which is one of my principles.
But yesterday’s article is not part of the speech. It is my third-party analysis and observation of the fund industry. I want to organize it or send it out.
Just happened to see an apology news from Ten Billion Private Equity Harmony Exchange today, so I can write it together.
It is understood that as of October 21, the Harmony Huiyi Vision series products managed by Lin Peng have fallen by 28.97% this year, and the net value of the unit is only 0.6695 yuan.
In contrast to the previous news, because Lin Peng used to be a well-known fund manager for public offerings, this series of products was also a hit that year, with a closed period of 30 months and 15 billion issued on the first day. ( In 2017, the Dongfanghong Ruihua Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Mixed Fund managed by him became the annual champion of mixed funds with a growth rate of 67.91% of the weighted net value, and also the annual champion of active equity funds)
This also means that if calculated on a scale of 15 billion, the fund will lose more than 33% in two years, with a loss of nearly 5 billion. And this is still calculated based on the net value on October 21, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange has fallen by 4% in the past week, so the loss of the fund may have been further lost.
Personally, I think that Lin Peng’s huge loss in performance after turning from public to private can give the industry three things to think about:
The first is the priority of national policies and business models, and which is more important “top-down” or “bottom-up”.
Domestic top fund managers, especially tens of billions of star fund managers, learn more from the style of Western fund managers such as Buffett, and respect “moats”, safety margins, and barriers to competition.
As Lin Peng said: “In the past, I have always invested in the best companies I understand and accompany them to grow, so I have gained relatively good investment returns.
However, in the past two years, the entire market has experienced huge fluctuations or differentiation due to factors such as the economy and the epidemic. The original criteria for judging good companies with good prices seem to have failed. If excellent companies with good fundamentals are not in some core competitions Dao, then it is the stock price that is constantly falling. “
Many top fund managers are bottom-up, and their time and energy are mainly spent on micro-level research on individual stocks and companies, rather than on macro research.
Lin Peng’s biggest loss mainly comes from two major parts, one is the investment in Hong Kong-listed Internet companies, and the other is consumer electronics companies.
In the past two years, the stock market is affected by various factors. For example, if an industry is regulated or even rectified, then a single company in it, no matter how good it is in the industry, cannot resist the risks of the industry. The case is a good future for the education and training industry, and it will not be expanded here.
Another example is the Internet platform company, which has a good business model, but the policy may not support it to become too big and form a monopoly. Typical examples are Tencent and Ali in the Internet.
If you don’t have a clear overall view, you can’t look at problems from the top down, you can’t look at the combination from the dynamic of the global situation, you can’t study the cycle and rise and fall of various industries in depth, but you think you know the industry and the company well and live in your own world. , that investment will be full of uncertainty.
The second is the problem of path dependence and risk control.
Most of the so-called star fund managers in public offerings have performed poorly after escaping, and some even suffered huge losses. The reason is probably the path dependence brought by concentrating on a single industry concept and hovering on the path of past success.
I took a look at the performance of Ren Zesong, the former 2013 champion fund manager, this year, and it has also dropped by 56.16%. It can be said that the performance is quite sluggish.
There is no era of fund managers, only the era of fund managers.
A-shares have always been feng shui turns, and the industry turns, like a windmill. Yesterday’s fund champion may be “a phoenix that falls into the water is not as good as a chicken.”
For public fund managers, don’t be slaughtered by the media and the outside world.
Especially after public-to-private, it is important to understand that there is a big difference between public offering and private placement: public offering is the pursuit of relative returns, while private placement is the pursuit of absolute returns. .
The market in the future is unpredictable, so be in awe of the market.
Don’t rest on your laurels in past experience, be overly obsessed with mean reversion, not be sensitive enough to the macro-policy level, and fail to make adequate plans for possible extreme risks.
Private funds need a systematic risk control system to manage risk exposure and better protect the interests of holders.
The essence of Sun Tzu’s Art of War is “Victory can be known, but can’t be done”. The core of investment is to follow the trend, to use the market instead of being attacked by the market, not to attack rashly, but to be patient, to deeply study various aspects of things, to know ourselves and the enemy, first. Build your own invincibility, wait for the market to make mistakes, and pursue the one-shot opportunity.
The third is that there are problems with the current fund issuance system.
Now, some newly established individual-based public offering and private equity companies are very good at building momentum. When the products are released, they publicize the historical performance and investment philosophy of fund managers in large quantities, and some even write books, open channel roadshows, etc.
The star fund manager IP + the boss can speak and write articles + channel hard work, and some bank channels even ask employees to take a certain share, which is the only way to build a hot fund.
But the glory of the past belongs only to the past. If you only sell funds on the basis of fame and historical performance, then investing is too simple.
Fund companies care about the scale of their first offerings, channels care about their influence and voice, and channel sales care about their own KPIs, so don’t lag behind in work performance.
But where are the interests of fund holders?
Have you ever thought about it, now that tens of billions of funds are raised from funds and handed over to some newly established companies for management, just three or two fund managers are partners. These investment research systems and risk control systems similar to small workshop companies can support large-scale companies. Does the money work?
Selling these risky new company products to the bank’s novice customers in large numbers, does this achieve risk adaptation?
What’s more, the rotation of A shares is so fast, and the old white horses and old fund managers are killed. If the cognition is not iterated and the path dependence is adhered to, it is impossible to have impressive performance, Meteor. . . @Today’s topic #Star plan creator# #
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