1. There are 1 to 4 generations of refrigerants. According to international conventions, the first generation has been completely eliminated, and it is in the transition from the second generation to the third generation. The fourth generation is still early, and 90% of the production capacity is in China, which is in the stage of monopolistic competition .
2. In order to obtain the quota of the third-generation refrigerants, several major manufacturers are selling at a loss from 2020 to 2022, deliberately losing for three years, just hoping to get the quota to make a lot of money in the future. No need to sell at a loss starting in 2023.
3. The vast majority of industries will expand production in large quantities with the sharp rise in product prices, resulting in fierce competition and price declines.
However, if the price of refrigerants is affected by the quota, the supply cannot increase, but the supply will decrease year by year as time goes on.
4. The OPEC organization controls oil prices by reducing production. The refrigerant industry is similar to OPEC. The top five occupy 80 to 90 percent of the quota. Enterprises without quotas cannot enter. No matter how much demand is, they can also control production capacity to obtain reasonable s price. So there is no need to worry about how the downstream demand will change.
5. The price of the third-generation refrigerant is now less than 20,000 yuan, and the price of the fourth-generation refrigerant is as high as 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. In the future, the 4th generation will replace the 3rd generation, the premise is that the price is slowly approaching . The long-term price rise of the third-generation refrigerants is unstoppable and is a friend of time.
6. Among the three major refrigerant companies in A-shares, Sanmei (SH603379) is the purest , and 80% of its revenue is related to refrigerants. $ Juhua (SH600160) $ is the industry leader, and about 30% of its revenue is related to refrigerants. $Yonghe shares (SH605020)$ Third, its chairman believes that Yonghe will reach a market value of 50 billion sooner or later.
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