foreword
The cement industry is one of the key industries for China to achieve carbon neutrality. China’s cement production and consumption account for more than half of the global market, and its carbon emissions account for 13% of the country’s total emissions, second only to the power and steel industries. The first difficulty in reducing emissions in the cement industry is to reduce emissions from the production process, which requires technology that can replace existing raw materials on a large scale; the second is to change the coal-based fuel structure. In addition, the assets of Chinese cement companies are short-lived, and the risks of stranded assets brought about by rapid transformation are relatively high. At the same time, the low industry concentration also brings certain challenges to the large-scale application of new technologies.
Under the dual-carbon goal, China is striving to build a carbon peaking and carbon neutral “1+N” policy system, including formulating carbon peaking implementation plans for key industries such as building materials represented by cement. With the transformation of downstream industries represented by the construction industry to low-carbon, the normalization of industrial policies such as off-peak production and reduction and replacement, and the launch of market measures such as the carbon market, the cement industry is expected to continue its transformation to low-carbon and even carbon neutrality. make a progress.
This report “Accelerating Deep Industrial Decarbonization: The Road to Carbon Neutrality in China’s Cement Industry”, in cooperation with the China Cement Association, provides an in-depth discussion on the transformation roadmap of the cement industry under the goal of carbon neutrality. Our analysis shows that achieving carbon neutrality in the cement industry requires joint efforts in reduction, fuel, variety, energy efficiency and end-of-line treatment. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the slowdown in urbanization and infrastructure demand, the elimination of outdated production capacity, and the improvement of material efficiency in the construction industry, China’s cement demand and output will show a significant downward trend. On this basis, fuel substitution technology will play an important role in reducing emissions. At the same time, adjusting the type of cement can play a role in reducing process emissions. The paths include adjusting the clinker coefficient of cement, producing new low-carbon cement, and replacing raw material technologies. Carbon Capture, Storage and Utilization (CCUS) is one of the key technologies to achieve carbon neutrality in the cement industry.
It is worth pointing out that carbon neutrality in the cement industry needs to rely on the price mechanism to transmit correct market signals to enhance the cost advantage of low carbon cement. At the same time, the low-carbon transformation of cement is closely related to upstream and downstream industries, and it is advisable to break the industry boundary and make comprehensive planning. Taking into account the uncertainties of supply and demand, technological development speed, cost composition and other factors, this study focuses on the carbon neutral transition trend, short-, medium- and long-term arrangements and technological-economic roadmap of China’s cement industry under the hypothetical time frame, with a view to policy Provide reference for formulation and industry planning.
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