Find a company like Maotai, take it for decades, and make money by traveling around the mountains, drinking, drinking and playing, and earning more than most people.
This is the investment state that many investors dream of. Many big Vs in Snowball are spreading such investment ideas. I think most people may not understand the difficulty and risks of this investment idea. It is just a form of self-hypnosis. Comfort yourself with a temporarily unprovable long-term prospect.
Suppose there are two investors, both with good returns, but with different investment methods.
A is highly concentrated, held for a long time, and earned N times from one or two companies. For example, the only successful companies of some big V over the years are Maotai, Gree, Vanke and a few other companies.
B is relatively scattered, and is held in the medium and long term. Every few years, the holding companies change more than half of them. A single company does not earn much, but a small victory becomes a big victory, and it also achieves considerable profits in the long run.
If you had to choose, whose investment method would you choose to learn? Whose investment method is more likely to succeed?
I tend to learn the investment method of B, because the success of A may be just survivorship bias. I believe that at least some investors who have achieved great success in Maotai cannot find the next Maotai. The investment method summed up by A is likely to be similar to the lottery buying experience summed up by the two-color ball winners.
A’s investment method is not reproducible. SoftBank has never found the next Alibaba after Alibaba, and the South African Press Group has not found the next Tencent after Tencent. This highly focused and deeply involved investment method is also costly to correct mistakes, and by the time investors find out that they have learned the wrong way, they may have wasted a lot of time and money.
Method B has a larger sample size, a smaller luck factor, and higher reproducibility. It is an investment method that is easier to form a sustainable success of the system, which is also the investment method adopted by most funds.
Investing is actually doing business, and every era has good business in every era. Compared with real operators, investors in the secondary market have one more convenience that they can “change their business” at any time, and we should take advantage of this benefit.
As long as the understanding of business is basically passable, the analysis of enterprises is basically passable, the grasp of price and timing is basically passable, and some leading companies with growth potential at present and in the future can be allocated in a dispersed manner, then you can enjoy the dividends of the development of the times and obtain a decent investment. This is the investment philosophy that ordinary investors should learn .
I mean, don’t expect too much investment expectations, most people can’t be Buffett and Lynch. It is too difficult to just look for hundreds of thousands of shares like Maotai and Coca-Cola. 10 years ago, most of the 10 companies with heavy holdings of public funds have changed today, and most companies and entrepreneurs only belong to a specific era.
Finding a great company and holding it for decades is an easy way to invest, but it’s definitely not easy.
When it comes to doing business, everyone has their own way of doing business. Except for the general qualities of “integrity, long-term, and focus”, which are more likely to be successful, there is no certain way to succeed.
The same is true of investment, don’t over-seek theoretically correct, generally good.
@Today’s topic $Kweichow Moutai (SH600519)$ $Ningde Times (SZ300750)$ $Muyuan Shares (SZ002714)$
There are 17 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/1818877481/234658112
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.