$Yinhua Dimensity-Quiet Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Dimensity-Nian Nianhong(TIAA041001)$
This week, I had an in-depth communication with several investment friends. We each expressed each other’s views and research thoughts on the parts we were good at. On the macro market, industry, and style direction, I once again expressed some of my views. and views.
Some friends feel that it is unnecessary for me to insist on high-intensity review every trading day. If I focus my energy on investment, the returns will be better.
However, everyone’s choices and directions are different. Generally speaking, the choices made by any individual will be well thought out. They must meet their personal strengths and be able to achieve something. Of course, they will inevitably give up something . Absolute freedom is to keep moving forward in compromise, as long as the goal is firm, it can be done step by step.
So I have my own ideas. I think that writing articles and recording videos every day, thinking about and reviewing the market every day is a basic skill. I am not afraid of being tired or tired, and I am not afraid of others saying that I am high-profile or something else. Do your own thing in a down-to-earth way, spend more time every day to think more maturely about the strategies of Yinhua Dimensity-Quiet Ying and Nian Nianhong, tell your friends who follow your thoughts and thoughts without gaps, and be a good friend at any time. communication, which is both a job and a career for me.
In this life, people can do what they like with peace of mind, and it can still have a little meaning. It is quite interesting. If you can use this kind of communication and exchange, and through personal research and thinking, you can influence a group of people, even if they are Few people have a correct understanding of investment, understand investment, and do research well, which is really interesting.
The following is the beginning of the review of this week’s weekly strategy.
In the November strategy report “[Fund Investment Advisors November Monthly Strategy Report 2022.10.30] Crossing the River” , we clearly stated that “we must dare to seize the opportunities arising from the market adjustment, but we must also be prepared to continue to consolidate.” “Reduce the possibility of being forced out due to mental imbalance.” From our research and analysis, the market is clearly in a bottom area, and this is not a time to be afraid.
Looking back at last week’s market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.31% to close at 3,070 points, and the ChiNext Index closed at 2,451.22 points, up 8.92%, which is also a kind of evidence for our strategy. (Data source: Wind, 2022.10.31-2022.11.4)
1. Why the surge
There are many voices in the market about why the market has risen sharply, and each has its own reason. Our view is just one sentence: if you are cheap, there may be opportunities. This is the rule.
In the November strategy report, we mentioned that according to the data of Wind on October 30, the TTM valuation of the CSI 300 was 10.38 times, which was 11.41% of the historical percentile;
The valuation of Hang Seng Index TTM is 7.38 times, which is 0.09% of the historical percentile;
Isn’t this valuation cheap? (Data source: Wind, 2022.10.30)
Even after a week’s rise, as of the close on November 4, the TTM valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen is only 10.92 times, which is 15.64% of the historical percentile;
The Hang Seng Index TTM valuation is only 7.92 times, which is 0.94% of the historical percentile;
Both indices remain in historical bottom territory. (Data source: Wind, 2022.11.4)
Of course, the market needs some other triggers besides being cheap. On the news, German Chancellor Schultz and several other leaders visited, let us see that the world is open, and we are also open;
Economically, we are also looking forward to the economic recovery next year; as for the epidemic, everything will pass.
2. Optimism should be cautious
Of course, we should remain optimistic. We must see that the market is still in the bottom area. As of the close on November 4, the TTM valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen is only 10.92 times, which is 15.64% of the historical percentile;
The Hang Seng Index TTM valuation is only 7.92 times, which is 0.94% of the historical percentile;
The characteristics of the bottom area are relatively clear. (Data source: Wind, 2022.11.4)
On the disk, the market gradually increased its volume gradually last week. The trading volume of both markets on Wednesday and Friday recovered to more than 1 trillion. In addition to long-term investors like us, some short-term and trend funds may also be returning to the market.
These sensitive funds all have a certain cost. From a regular point of view, the single-digit increase obviously cannot satisfy their desires, so they may be waiting for further increases.
Whether the market reverses or rebounds, there is no reason to be overly pessimistic. Stay optimistic.
Shanghai Composite Index, 2022.11.06, Straight Flush
However, a short-term rapid rebound is generally bound to have twists and turns. From the perspective of technical graphics, at 3199 points after the close on September 15, 2022, that is, around 3200 (straight flush, 2022.9.15), there are certain differences in market funds. The market may not be done overnight, and there may be some volatility.
3. More important than judging a rebound or a reversal is the mentality
As the market improves, the voices in the market about whether the market is rebounding or reversing have begun to grow louder, but compared with these discussions, if investors cannot maintain a healthy state of mind, it seems to be more harmful.
At present, there are several mentalities that need to be corrected.
The first is fear. Although you know that it is the bottom area, you are afraid to invest, that is, buying up and not buying down, forgetting the reality of the bottom area, and worrying about whether the market will continue to fall sharply.
The second always wants to wait for the absolute inflection point. In fact, this is almost impossible. Not to mention ordinary investors without this ability and time and energy, even professional short-term investors will not blindly pursue the absolute inflection point;
It is very correct to do a good layout in the bottom area.
The third type is that you want to run as soon as it rises a little, but you can’t hold your breath.
The fourth is to buy down and not up, that is, if the market continues to fall, it will continue to invest, but once it rises, it will not invest. It is not suitable to care about such a bottom area, and you should take a long-term perspective.
To change these mentalities, investors must have a full understanding of their own abilities, and have a full assessment of their time and energy. They must give up the illusion of getting rich and insist on investing with spare money. If you do, things will move in the right direction.
Fourth, the position is more important than judging the rebound or reversal
For ordinary investors, it is also a pity that they cannot grasp the bottom area and complete the layout of major positions in the bottom area. The cyclical cycle of the market often only occurs once every few years, and the market ecology of A shares has already occurred fundamentally. changes, slow cattle and long cattle become more promising.
I won’t start talking about it here. On the premise of insisting on spare money investment, the amount of positions determines the final rate of return. If the layout of the main positions cannot be done well at the bottom, once the market starts to rise in the future, it is difficult to guarantee that there will be no chasing up and down. the behavior of.
5. More important than judging a rebound or a reversal is the direction
Regarding the choice of direction, everyone should have a profound experience in the past two years. If you choose the wrong investment direction, you will not be able to enjoy the best market conditions. If you choose the right investment direction, you will get twice the result with half the effort. Of course, we do not advocate excessively heavy positions in a certain direction. Balance Dispersion is king.
Regarding the direction of medium and long-term investment, we will talk about it in the weekly weekly strategy, monthly monthly strategy and quarterly strategy, and we will continue to make corrections with the passage of time and the development of the market. As of now, we still We believe that hard technology (including military industry), basic consumption (agriculture, seed industry, consumer dividends), medicine and medical care, and outstanding Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong and US stocks are investment directions worthy of attention. We also believe that we should pay attention to excellent broad base and partial fixed income+ It is relatively safe to maintain a balanced and decentralized strategy for the allocation of bond funds, regardless of whether the market continues to fluctuate or walks out of the bottom area.
But if you look at the current moment in the market, the rebound of the consumer side is relatively certain, including CSI Baijiu, consumer electronics, CSI Travel, and Hong Kong Stock Internet.
6. Re-emphasize the importance of strategy and discipline
I don’t know if the nagging every time is really useful, but it’s always right to say some things several times, which allows us to always check whether we have landed according to the strategy, including myself.
1. Properly disperse and pay attention to the configuration of fixed income +.
As a mature investor, we cannot see only opportunities without risks, which is very dangerous, even if the current market is in a bottom area.
A stable fund investment and advisory portfolio such as Yinhua Dimensity-Niannianhong is of strategic significance for resisting unexpected risks in the market.
2. Maintain the principle of spare money investment,
Under no circumstances can this principle be violated. Take Yinhua Dimensity-Qingyingying and Niannianhong as examples. They are suitable for spare money that has not been used for more than 2 years and spare money that has not been used for more than 1 year. We must do a good job in the classification and classification of spare money. Configuration, plan ahead, and stay calm in the face of danger.
3. Emphasis on fixed investment and fixed investment discipline.
This model of fixed investment does not mean that we have to do this, but it does have its practicality. On the one hand, most investors are salarymen, and spare money continues to flow in. Among them, qualified spare money is naturally suitable for fixed investment;
On the other hand, for the stock funds, it may be more psychologically stable for many ordinary investors by investing in several batches.
There is also the issue of the time of scheduled investment. Our family adopts a fixed day of departure every Monday. Some friends like to randomly select the day of scheduled investment according to the market situation. How to say it?
If you have enough experience and time and energy, you can, but if you don’t have this condition, a fixed-date investment may be more suitable, and the time and energy saved will have value, whether in work or family life.
Next Monday is our family’s fixed scheduled start date. According to the current market conditions, our family will still insist on starting 2 Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Ying and 1 Yinhua Tianji-Nian Nianhong, but if the market on Monday If there is a big increase, then our family may only send 1 copy of Yinhua Tianji – Quietly, and we will communicate with you about the general situation.
Summarize the core views of this week’s weekly strategy:
1. The market is still in the bottom area, we must pay attention and grasp it.
2. There may be some pressure on the 3200 line in the short term.
3. In the medium and long term, we still attach importance to hard technology (including military industry), basic consumption (agriculture, seed industry, consumer dividends), medicine and medical care, outstanding Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong and US stocks, and excellent broad-based and bond funds;
In the short term, CSI liquor, consumer electronics, CSI tourism, and the Internet on the consumer side may also have opportunities.
4. Adhere to investment disciplines such as moderate dispersion, spare money investment, and fixed investment.
I am, Silent, who insists on researching and analyzing fund investment every day, and insisting on review and video communication every trading day. I am a fund investment consultant who insists on improving investment research capabilities.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice. There are risks in the market, and investment should be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, cannot guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. Investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy statement before using the fund portfolio service, fully understand the portfolio details and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio meets their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment objectives. Investors investing in fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies should follow the principle of “buyer is conceited”. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operational characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies, they should select appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own circumstances. Combining strategies, making investment decisions prudently, and taking investment risks independently. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee the certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a guarantee of capital. The risk characteristics of a fund’s portfolio strategy are different from those of a single fund product. The past performance of investment advisory services is not indicative of its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that the fund investment consulting institution cannot continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky and investment should be cautious. #Fund creator incentive#
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