Safe-haven assets:
Monetary Fund, Treasury Bonds, U.S. Dollar, Gold
Risk assets:
Stock market broad-based index, industry index
In 2005, safe-haven assets performed better.
Treasury bonds, the US dollar, and gold all recorded double-digit positive returns, while risky assets underperformed.
In 2006 and 2007, risk assets successfully counterattacked.
The A-share index and industry have recorded triple-digit surges for two consecutive years. Gold remains strong as currencies and bonds pale in comparison.
In 2008, safe-haven assets successfully counterattacked.
Risk assets have fallen sharply, and they will be cut in half if they disagree. Gold was relatively stable, and bonds and the dollar became safe-haven winners in the financial turmoil.
In 2009, China opened 4 trillion yuan to activate real estate, and risk assets successfully counterattacked.
The stock market staged a big rebound, while the currency base, bonds, and the dollar were relatively frustrated. Gold is still rising steadily.
In 2010, gold became the most watched asset in the world.
Except for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, other stock market indexes continued to rise, while the money base, bonds, and the US dollar continued to slump.
In 2011, safe-haven assets counterattacked again.
Gold continued to lead the global rally, money bases, bonds, and the US dollar performed well, while risky assets fell into a downturn. Chinese stock indexes posted double-digit losses.
In 2012, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks performed well.
The performance of A-shares was mediocre, the performance of safe-haven assets was mediocre, and the gains of gold began to narrow.
In 2013, Yu’ebao was born, and the Internet index was thriving.
In addition, small-cap stocks represented by China Securities 1000 performed well, recording double-digit gains together with US stocks. Gold, which has performed the best in the past three years, peaked, fell sharply, and performed the worst.
In 2014, the state released water to activate real estate, and the stock market boomed.
The performance of cargo base and bonds is quite satisfactory, and gold continues to be at the bottom.
In 2015, structural changes took place in the stock market, and small-cap stocks skyrocketed.
Sector indices outperformed with double-digit gains. Gold has been at the bottom of the list for the third year in a row.
In 2016, gold, which has been at the bottom for three consecutive years, successfully counterattacked and became the best in the world.
A-shares underperformed and were at the bottom of the global market.
In 2017, the white horse cattle came, and the white horse industry index led the world.
Small-cap stocks and bonds were the biggest losers.
In 2018, Feng Shui is the turn of safe-haven assets.
It’s not that safe-haven assets have risen much, but risky assets have fallen miserably.
In 2019 and 2020, risk assets will counterattack again.
Except for Hang Seng, other stock market indexes, convertible bond equivalence indexes and gold all achieved double-digit gains.
In 2021, the convertible bond equal rights index will be the winner.
U.S. stocks outperformed the world. The white horse Baotuanniu collapsed, and the industry index plummeted.
In 2022, risk aversion sentiment will rise sharply, and safe-haven assets will perform well.
Inflation in the United States has intensified, the U.S. dollar index has soared, funds flow to bonds, gold, and even monetary funds with a yield of less than 2% can be in the leading red this year, and risky assets such as the stock market are all exhausted. The industry index fell sharply for two consecutive years.
In 2023, there is a high probability that risk assets will counterattack again.
Throughout history, we have found that all kinds of assets are not absolutely good or bad, but because of the rotation of Feng Shui.
For example, from 2013 to 2015, during these three years, gold was particularly green, but looking back, the bear market of these three years was a good time to build a position in gold.
From 2016 to 2018, in the past three years, the small-cap stocks represented by the China Securities 1000 were miserable. Looking back, this bear market was a good time to build positions.
In 2019 and 2020, in the past two years, the three major industry indexes have risen hugely, attracting countless funds to group together, and people have established a solid belief in the value investment of white horse stocks. Therefore, in 2021 and 2022, the market will respond in kind and fall to you Faith collapsed.
When money market funds take the lead in the rankings, such as 2008, 2011, 2018, and often the following year, there will be a stock market bull market in A-shares or Hong Kong stocks. In 2022, the cargo base seems to be red, and 2023 is worth looking forward to.
In 2022, the U.S. dollar will record the largest increase against the yuan in 15 years. This year, many banks exceeded their quotas for foreign exchange purchases in US dollars, and a large number of retail customers exchanged RMB for US dollars under the recommendation of bank account managers. According to the laws of history, the next year or the next year, most of them may not be very happy.
The U.S. dollar index is worthy of being a global risk-avoidance vane. The index has the most powerful four years, 2005, 2008, 2018 and 2022. These four years are all bear markets for risky assets, and as long as they survive, spring will follow.
Historically, the country has taken several measures to activate real estate. The first two were in 2008 and 2014. Later, in 2009 and 2015, the stock market came out of the bull market. And in 2022, we see that the current policy will undoubtedly bring out the chamber pot of real estate again. In the future, we will wait and see.
$Shanghai Composite Index(SH000001)$
$CSI 300(SH000300)$ $Treasury Bond Index(SH000012)$
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