#中起联系创创场大单月半消# $九败 Index Enhanced (TIAA026003)$ $Jiu Cong Fund Manager Choice (TIAA026002)$ $Jiu Cong Fixed Income Plus(TIAA026005)$
A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks have all rebounded for a month, and the rise and fall in November:
CSI 300, +9.81%;
S&P 500, +5.38%;
Hang Seng Index, +26.62%;
China Internet 50, +38.63%.
The most eye-catching ones are the Hong Kong stock market and Zhonggai Internet, whose rebound has been comparable to a small bull market.
In the face of a rebound, it is easy to have two kinds of operational thoughts. One is to feel that the price has risen a lot, and it may be time to fall, and wants to sell first, and then buy it back when it falls; Increase positions to chase gains.
The operation of the two ideas is exactly the opposite. The former wants to sell, and the latter wants to buy. In fact, it makes no sense.
Take the China Internet 50 Index (that is, China Internet) as an example. It has rebounded from the low of 4,400 at the end of October this year to 6,300 now. It has indeed risen a lot, but compared with the high of 17,000 in March 2021, There is still a long way to go, how to judge whether it is “should fall”?
The idea on the right side doesn’t make sense either. The picture below shows the recent trend of ZGT. The three red arrows in the picture are all rebounds on the right side. How to judge which one is a false rebound and which one will develop a real market?
(Data source: wind)
Most of the impromptu operating ideas are derived from subconscious guesses about market trends. The most fundamental way to resist the temptation of trading is to realize from the bottom of your heart that the market is unpredictable.
The market is a wild horse. It never runs according to the preset path. If you guess how the wild horse runs, you will sometimes guess right and sometimes wrong. If things go on like this, you will not be able to catch it stably. A better way is to pass through this pasture. Dig a trap at the exit and let the horse run wild, sooner or later it will step into the trap.
To dig a trap is to make a buying plan at a sufficiently low position and a selling plan at a sufficiently high position, and then wait for the stock price to fluctuate to trigger these two trading disciplines. Most of the time, the horse is running around, so I wait patiently.
Of course, there are various ways to dig traps. For example, you can start to gradually buy with the drop in the low area, and continuously increase the position; after the market enters the high area, do not sell, but continue to follow the trend and wait for the market to start from the high point. Retrace a certain range and then exit. The reason for adopting this asymmetric buying and selling method is due to the characteristics of A-share bulls short and bears long, bulls fast and bears slow. A long bear market is suitable for distribution and opening positions, while a violent bull market is suitable for letting the trend run. Finished.
As for what kind of position is low enough and high enough, it is up to the benevolent to see the wisdom of the wise. Everyone is willing to take different risks, has different views on the market, and has different judgments on high and low. But as far as the current position is concerned, the market is still in a low area, and it will not be in a position of overheating or high, so no matter whether this wave is a rebound or a fall, it makes no difference what to do, just continue to wait patiently .
Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The investment advisory institution does not guarantee the certain profitability and minimum return of the above fund investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification.
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