On November 30, multiple districts in Guangzhou announced the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, and most of the temporary control areas for epidemic prevention and control were lifted.
One stone stirred up thousands of waves, and the implementation speed of the policy was faster than the Internet this time. In the afternoon of the same day, in Haizhu District, where the epidemic was most severe, a large number of barriers were removed.
A video was frantically reposted by the self-media. In the video, a man ran happily in an empty street, shouting “unblocked ~ unblocked”, which became the most colorful stroke in this iconic event.
For a country with a large population of 1.4 billion, any policy adjustment will affect the whole body. How to balance the appeals of all parties is by no means as simple as we imagined. “One solution” will not solve the problem.
How can we satisfy everyone, and how can we achieve a smooth transition? And what will happen in the next 3-6 months?
1. Basic rules: try first, and expand after the pilot is completed
The reason why the complete unblocking of Guangzhou is of great social significance is because Guangzhou is the first case of unblocking in the whole country when the social situation has not been cleared. This has created a precedent in the era of epidemic control, but in a certain To a certain extent, it also endows Guangzhou with the arduous mission of “crossing the river with a pony”.
In fact, in China’s social practice in the past 40 years, it has always been the correct line we adhere to to try first and take small steps.
From 1979 when the reform and opening up established four special economic zones, leading the national trend, from 1992 when the pace of reform was even greater, leading to the Pudong New Area, and then to joining the WTO in 2001 and gradually opening up our industry to the world. It was never our original intention to achieve overnight.
Deliberate reform and prudence have never been a pair of opposite words. It is precisely because of the escort of prudence that the effectiveness and significance of reform can be continuously released for a longer period of time.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia “decisively” accepted the “shock therapy” from American economists. It is true that it solved the problem of property rights at one time, but who should bear the oligopoly, economic downturn, and decline in residents’ income that followed?
Even if the same truth is placed on different subjects, it may still have different effects.
The essence of the story of the pony crossing the river lies not in the pony’s humbly seeking advice from the cow and the little squirrel, but in its own cautious attempt at the end.
Following the issuance of relevant government orders in Guangzhou, official media such as the People’s Daily quickly expressed their positive recognition of these improvements. And later in the speech of the leaders of the State Council, “dynamic clearing” was no longer mentioned. It can be seen very clearly that this round of “reform” is by no means a purely municipal-level behavior.
In our current political environment, if there is no top-level instruction and support, the municipal platform is under the pressure of the superiors to do such a big “innovation”.
Since we consider Guangzhou to be a “pilot”, it does not mean that this is the ultimate method of epidemic management. Another subtext of trying first is that if something goes wrong, you can adjust it!
It is precisely because of this that although we have already seen the faint light of dawn, we must not simply think that “the full liberalization is about to happen”. From the perspective of political science with Chinese characteristics, when facing things, “let the bullets fly for a while.” “It’s perfectly normal.
The word “let go” is easy to say, but what is really difficult to implement is the proper admission and treatment of severe cases, the run-out of medical resources caused by the panic of a small number of residents, and the negative voices caused by the fermentation of a small number of severe cases on the Internet. To deal with these problems well, it is necessary to “let go” and carry out sufficient infrastructure and psychological construction at the same time.
Perhaps just as Goldman Sachs predicted, this “pilot” attitude cannot be ruled out, and it will continue to be promoted across the country in the next 1-2 quarters, and finally realize a comprehensive normal life before the second quarter of next year. It’s just that he may have missed the promotion of the opening process by more positive public opinion.
Second, in the ecology of epidemic control, one thing we have neglected for a long time: grassroots politics, not seeking merit but seeking no fault
On November 30, Jiang Gong’s fairy tour triggered the whole network’s memory.
“History is a little girl who can be dressed up”, even if other people don’t do it, we will not stop dressing her up. Especially when most people are struggling under the strict control of the epidemic, this kind of beautification is even more realistic.
But what I want to say is that the Chinese-style grassroots political ecology has not changed much over the years. Under the operating mode of big government, doing a good job of upward management is the fastest way for officials to be promoted.
When the strategic awareness at the top level is clear and has been clarified by my colleagues, I will work hard, and the high efficiency of the big government model is fully displayed. This is true for the centralized isolation, shelter construction, and national nucleic acid in the past three years.
When the top level gives a strategic direction but no one knows how to do it (20), I will choose to wait and see, pointing at me to be the first bird is not acceptable, rather than doing wrong in the right direction, it is better to be careful This is what happened to us in the last month.
The residents who are full of expectations and the officials who are mature and prudent form a stark contrast.
In the past two days, some regions have even chosen to go against the trend, but in terms of political ecology, this is not surprising. Under such circumstances, how can the current pilot project become a prairie fire across the country?
To completely reverse the direction of this wind, four necessary actions or scenarios need to occur:
1. High-level executives (not at the level of the Health and Medical Commission) put forward more specific plans based on the Guangzhou plan to be promoted across the country, which must meet the characteristics of clear rules and quantifiable implementation;
2. The experiment in Guangzhou is running well, and the social stability, economic growth, and epidemic data are stable and declining;
3. The high-level leaders recognized the changes in Guangzhou and praised them gently. If there is a rebound in the epidemic, they will not use the “killing stick” to pursue accountability;
4. High-level officials will directly criticize those regional officials who “intensify at every level”, and directly dismiss those who affect people’s lives and economic development.
In the next stage, the wind direction of “strict and loose” rewards and punishments will become a key concern of grassroots governments.
“Who was rewarded? Why was it rewarded? Should I learn from it?”
“Who was scolded by the superior? Why was scolded, I must never learn from him!”
In the big government model, rules are one aspect, but the “rewards and punishments” formed in the political ecology more directly express the true opinions of leaders.
This wind direction is the key to everything.
Third, the most difficult thing to change is actually the people themselves: government orders are easy to change, but people’s ideas still need to be reset
In the past two weeks, the resistance of various Beijing communities to the “illegal” blockade has intensified, and various essays and videos of speakers have been flying all over the world.
We all ignore that you choose what you believe, your subconscious lets you see what you agree with. But the real world never has just one point of view.
In the eyes of many people (including me), they are more willing to accept the fact of the “big cold”, but those who are silent, those who are frightened by the three-year epidemic are by no means a minority.
In the civil society, the immediate unblocking faction and the strict prevention faction have been opposing each other in different dimensions. This emotional antagonism has been reflected in the debates on whether to seal off or open every community, whether safety is paramount or economic development. It’s not intense, but it’s always there.
The real result is that the “unblocking faction” at the moment occupies the right to speak from the media. But once the number of epidemics rises after the lockdown is lifted, the strength of discourse will change rapidly, and the “preventionists” will make a comeback. How should we deal with this tearing of public opinion? And should the government balance the relationship between “economy” and “people”?
From this perspective, unblocking is not only an administrative order, but also an important economic decision, and it is the unified coordination of people’s cognition.
At the same time as the unblocking, it is a fierce public opinion war, and the contention at the ideological level is sometimes more difficult than physical control.
The public opinion war in the new stage will be launched in the following aspects:
1. Accurately publicize the incidence and severe disease rate after the epidemic variant, determine its status as a self-limiting disease, avoid causing panic among the masses, and prevent a run on medical resources.
2. Encourage residents, especially the elderly, to continue to strengthen vaccinations and provide more protection for high-risk groups.
3. At the national level, establish a reasonable and low-cost “placebo”. Don’t go to the hospital if you are sick, and you can be cured by taking a certain flower granule. On the one hand, it reduces the cost of epidemic prevention, and on the other hand, it makes full use of the body’s own resistance.
Don’t you see, has the direction of the official media changed these days?
Fourth, unblocking is easy, but difficult things are often invisible to us
China’s huge population base will make any of your decisions extremely difficult, especially when these choices involve the general public.
Zheng Banqiao, a famous scholar in the Qing Dynasty, once wrote a well-known poem when he was an official in Weixian County, Shandong Province, “I am a small county official in Caozhou, and every branch and leaf always cares about love.”
The poem expresses in an easy-to-understand way “although we are only small state and county officials, every move of the people affects our feelings”, but it also points out the difficulty of being an official from one aspect.
When you stand from a personal perspective, you will feel that it is not terrible to cause 1 million high-risk deaths after the unblocking, because the proportion is extremely low; but if you look at the unblocking from a higher perspective, you will find out how to properly handle public sentiment and public opinion 1. How to deal with the problem between “doing something” and “not doing it”, there are too many aspects to worry about, and too many preparations to be made.
When an individual makes a mistake, he can bow his head and admit it, or even pat his ass and leave, but the government can’t.
This is why we see that square cabin hospitals are still being vigorously built in various places. Only by being “prepared” can we be “safe”, and reform without “plan B” is dangerous. (Of course, I personally do not express my opinion on the large-scale construction of square cabin hospitals)
There is an old saying that “there are three major epidemics”, and we have reached the last day of the third year. But in the past half a year, it’s hard to say who’s life is normal, and it’s normal to get angry. But I still want to say one more thing, if you are not in your position, you will not seek your own government, and if you are not in your position, you will not know the difficulty!
Five, write at the end, after all, go eastward
During the second to third years of Chunxi in the Southern Song Dynasty, Xin Qiji served as a criminal prison in Jiangxi, and often traveled to and from Jiangxi, Hunan and other places. Go” is a famous saying through the ages.
Close your eyes and try to experience that feeling from Xin Qiji’s perspective. Looking far away, although the sight is blocked by the green hills, but watching the river break through the obstacles and gallop forward, you can see the heroic mind at a glance. This sentence is not only expressed with emotion, but also demonstrates the firm belief and indomitable will of the poet.
No matter how turbulent the current repetitions and twists and turns are, the long-term direction and goals will not change.
The epidemic will eventually dissipate, the economy will eventually return to normal, and our world will return to an upward direction.
The changes on November 30th surprised us. Those of us who are “overwhelmed with joy” should maintain more confidence and believe that the government will make the most beneficial long-term decisions; we should also maintain more patience and believe in the long-term upward nature of the human world while guarding against short-term twists and turns .
On December 1, 2019, Wuhan reported the first case of the new crown, and it has been three years since today. The three-year fight against the epidemic has made more and more people feel helpless. But just as the days of longer and longer nights are finally coming to an end in these cold winter days, the day when we return to normal must not be far away, right? (Fortune Chinese website)
The author Fu Wei is a columnist of Fortune Chinese website and a senior wealth management practitioner
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