Ad market hasn’t bottomed yet; global chip industry diversifies supply risks

/ LatePost | 晚点

Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1415

​The advertising market has not yet bottomed out

Media agency management group GroupM (GroupM) lowered its forecast for global ad spending in 2023, from 6.4% in June to 5.9%.

Another major advertising media giant, Magna, a subsidiary of IPG Market Consulting (IPG), is also further pessimistic about the advertising market in the coming year, reducing the growth rate of spending from 6.3% to 4.8%.

  • In the third quarter, Alphabet’s overall advertising revenue was US$54.5 billion, and the growth rate slowed to 2.5%; Google’s advertising revenue decreased by 1.9% year-on-year; Meta (Facebook)’s advertising revenue fell by 4% during the same period;
  • The marketing revenue of domestic Ali and Tencent is not good, and they themselves have reduced their market investment.
  • The Axios survey showed that US CEOs are downgrading their views on the economy, mainly due to ongoing supply chain challenges and inflation uncertainty.

Rising prices and various macroeconomic factors have affected the two largest advertising markets in the world. GroupM tracks 62 markets around the world, with 31 down, 21 up, and 10 unchanged.

Magna sees FMCG companies and financial firms likely to slow marketing spending next year, while entertainment, travel and gaming will continue to grow. (Gong Fangyi)

Global chip industry diversifies supply risks

About six hours later, TSMC’s new factory in Arizona, USA will hold a ceremony to move equipment in. This factory will be TSMC’s most advanced factory outside of its home country, and it also has the largest investment.

TSMC also made a plan to build factories in Japan with Sony earlier, and plans to build factories in Germany and Singapore are also under discussion. In addition, Samsung Electronics’ second US factory, which cost US$17 billion, has started construction in the first half of this year.

In response to the needs of various countries to spread the risk of chip supply, the two largest chip manufacturers in the world are accelerating the pace of building factories overseas.

At the same time, downstream brands of chips are also trying their best to avoid being affected by geopolitics.

Recently, there have been news from the supply chain. Some international PC and automobile brands are worried about the risk of chain breakage in mainland China fabs, and request to reduce the proportion of upstream chip foundry in mainland China, and turn to South Korea and Taiwan, China and other regions.

Both UMC and PSMC stated on December 4 that inquiries and enthusiasm from international customers for the company’s mature manufacturing process have increased significantly recently. This deviates from the current cooling market environment, and the only explanation is that it has obtained original intentional orders elsewhere.

At present, most automotive chips, as well as driver chips and power management chips in mobile phones and laptops, mostly use mature manufacturing processes, which are not so expensive but were seriously out of stock in the last round of chip shortages. Originally, U.S. semiconductor technology export controls were aimed at advanced manufacturing processes, but the potential risks put the mature manufacturing process business of domestic fabs at risk.

According to SMIC’s official statement, in the next five to seven years, SMIC has a total of about 340,000 12-inch new production capacity plans, almost all of which revolve around mature manufacturing processes. The other two mainland fabs, Huahong and Jita, originally only had mature processes.

At last month’s third-quarter performance meeting, SMIC CEO Zhao Haijun also emphasized that the company’s current technology nodes fully comply with the new US regulations, and he does not want to lose overseas business because of this, and hopes to maintain a revenue ratio of about 30%.

Zhao Haijun said that the lack of cores in the past two years has made downstream customers realize the importance of decentralized supply chain regions. Relying on capacity commitments, SMIC has obtained good overseas customer expansion. But he also admitted that after the new US regulations, SMIC still needs time to clarify the specific impact of the new export control regulations with customers.

The domestic market continues to be limited by the downturn of the industry cycle. According to data from research firm CINNO Research, in the third quarter of this year, the average inventory turnover days of China’s major IC design manufacturers further increased to about 216 days. The inventory level is too high and the demand for mobile phones, PCs and other terminals is weak. It is expected that the destocking process of chip designers will spread to the first half of next year. The pressure on orders from fabs that manufacture chips for design companies has further intensified. (Qiu Hao)

gold for oil

UBS Securities investment strategist Zoltan Pozar’s popularity has reached new heights this year.

In his view, geopolitical conflicts and the ensuing import and export controls restrict the ability of some countries or regions to obtain resources, technologies or services from other countries or regions. For example, the European Union freezes Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and boycotts the latter’s oil and gas, and Moscow in turn demands that natural gas be settled in rubles instead of dollars. Money (dollars) is no longer everything.

On December 5th, the same day when the G7 price limit on Russian oil came into effect at $60/barrel, Zoltan Pozar published another report discussing the latest macro situation and trading strategies, and proposed a way for Russia to bypass the G7 price limit:

  • Regardless of whether Europe and the United States directly ask Russia to buy, or transfer Russian oil through a third country, they are all settled in gold. Just like before settlement of gas in rubles.
  • The G7 requires that the export price of Russian oil should not exceed US$60/barrel, and Russia can also set an upper limit: 1 gram of gold for a barrel of oil. Dollar revaluation.
  • Note: The current international gold price does not exceed US$58 per gram. Under Zoltan Pozar’s assumption that 1 gram of gold is exchanged for 1 barrel of oil, the purchasing power of the dollar relative to gold decreases.
  • If Russia priced 1 gram of gold for 2 barrels of oil, it would be difficult for the G7, which wants to buy cheap oil, to refuse. Once the transaction is completed, it also means that at least the value of gold denominated in US dollars in Russia’s hands has doubled. Because the G7 can buy back more oil from Russia with gold than with dollars.
  • The appreciation of Russian gold can just make up for the “loss” of their crude oil export revenue denominated in US dollars.
  • Note: Zoltan Pozar’s report is available at https://ift.tt/NhIf70r, the password is gmxx

“Crazy? Yes. Impossible? It’s been an incredible year in the macro picture, with national policy re-emerging as the dominant force driving monetary and fiscal decisions,” Zoltan Pozar said in a report. This is an imaginative strategy. But there are two prerequisites. First, energy demand remains strong. Second, the Kremlin also controls Russian oil and gas assets. (Gong Fangyi)

From the 6th in Beijing, commercial supermarkets and various public places are not required to check the nucleic acid

According to the “Beijing Release” news, from December 6th, when entering supermarkets, commercial buildings and various public places, you can enter by scanning the QR code, and no nucleic acid check is required, but dine-in must scan the QR code and check the 48-hour nucleic acid negative certificate.

When entering a community (village), the certificate of negative nucleic acid test is not checked, and the permanent residents do not need to scan the QR code. Entering Internet cafes, bars, chess and card rooms, KTV, script killing, sauna bathing and other closed places, as well as catering (dining), indoor fitness and other places, you must scan the code and check the 48-hour nucleic acid test negative certificate.

Nucleic acid checks are not required when entering the Capital Airport and Daxing Airport. Health treasure scan code registration and normal body temperature can pass through, but dine-in at the dining places in the terminal building must scan the code and check the 48-hour nucleic acid negative certificate. Entering Beijing Railway Station, Beijing West Railway Station, and Beijing North Railway Station still needs to check the negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours.

When entering elderly care institutions, child welfare institutions, kindergartens, primary and secondary schools, and inpatient departments of medical institutions, you must scan the code and check the 48-hour nucleic acid test negative certificate.

Beijing Universal Studios Resort announced that starting from December 7, nucleic acid checks will not be carried out when entering the park, but a negative nucleic acid certificate within 48 hours is required for dine-in and movie watching.

On December 6, Zhang Yi, deputy director and spokesperson of the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission, introduced the need to check the results of nucleic acid tests.

  • Seeing a doctor : general outpatients and emergency patients can pass with the green health code; newly admitted inpatients and their accompanying staff can be admitted to the hospital with a 24-hour negative nucleic acid test certificate; outpatients with fever must be tested for nucleic acid.
  • Travel : If you take airplanes, high-speed rail, trains, inter-provincial long-distance passenger vehicles, inter-provincial passenger ships and other means of transportation, you must present a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours; carry out “arrival inspection” for people who come (return) to Guangzhou from across provinces.
  • Key places (institutions) and key groups of people : elderly care institutions, welfare institutions, maternal and child care institutions and other places with dense population and many vulnerable groups are prone to cluster epidemics. Currently, closed management is still implemented. Enter with a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 24 hours ; Risk positions such as express delivery, port traffic, key personnel, and high-risk areas where local epidemics occur, carry out nucleic acid screening according to the frequency specified in the ninth edition.

Adjustments to prevention and control measures in other regions include:

  • Suzhou: Major bus stations no longer check negative nucleic acid test certificates and health codes.
  • Guiyang: Nucleic acid testing is no longer required when entering shopping malls, supermarkets, catering and entertainment, commercial buildings, parks and scenic spots.
  • Shaoxing: Nucleic acid testing in medical institutions no longer provides free “willing to check” services to the public.
  • Shenyang: Nucleic acid testing for risk positions and key personnel shall be carried out in accordance with the ninth edition of the regulations, and normal nucleic acid testing will no longer be carried out. (intern Zeng Xing)

After the new crown antigen test is positive, what can I do in home isolation?

If you have COVID-19, your symptoms may include:

  • fever over 38 degrees Celsius or chills; cough; shortness of breath; fatigue; muscle or joint pain; headache; sore throat; nasal congestion; nausea; diarrhea; loss of taste or smell;
  • If a home pulse oximeter is available, a reading below 92% may mean an increased need for hospitalization (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center);

If you qualify for home isolation, you can:

  • Wear a tight-fitting surgical mask to prevent further spread of the virus;
  • Pay attention to hygiene when using the toilet. Cover the toilet seat before flushing to avoid spreading germs;
  • Stick to a healthy diet and drink enough water (6 to 8 glasses a day), get enough sleep, avoid excessive alcohol and caffeine intake; eat smaller meals, six meals a day instead of three. This will help relieve nausea and loss of appetite. ;
  • Seek medical attention if necessary.

You can prepare over-the-counter drugs or medical supplies for symptoms:

  • antipyretics, analgesics;
  • Excessive use of Tylenol (acetaminophen) can damage the liver;
  • Medicines for nasal congestion and runny nose;
  • Use with caution in hypertensive patients;
  • Antitussive, expectorant;
  • Antigen detection kits and reagents;

The above information comes from:

  • Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (Ninth Edition) https://ift.tt/Gvszg4S
  • “Lilac Garden” https://ift.tt/9H6y5LB
  • Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center https://ift.tt/03ZDuj5
  • Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China https://ift.tt/2nTMJuF
  • Miao You International (Mayo Clinic) https://ift.tt/0OT3AnL

OTHER NEWS

Antigen reagents on the drug buying platform were snapped up.

With the relaxation of nucleic acid inspection requirements in many places across the country, the demand for residents to prepare their own antigens has surged. According to data from JD Health, the turnover of antigen detection kits on the platform increased by 344% month-on-month last week. Lianhua Qingwen and ibuprofen were also snapped up. In different pharmacies on the same drug buying platform, the price difference of Lianhua Qingwen was more than 4 times; drugs such as ibuprofen were sold out in many pharmacies.

Experts suggest that ordinary patients with new crowns can observe and treat at home.

According to CCTV news, Wang Guiqiang, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Peking University First Hospital, suggested that stratified treatment be implemented for patients with new crowns, and ordinary patients can observe and treat at home, leaving limited medical resources for high-risk groups of severe illness.

Haidilao intends to spin off Tehai International to be listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

On the evening of December 5th, Haidilao announced that it plans to spin off Haidilao’s overseas business subsidiary, Tehai International, and list it on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through the introduction of listing. The board of directors considers conditionally distributing 90% of the entire issued share capital of Special Sea International in the form of distribution in specie.

Naixue’s Tea holds Lele Tea with 525 million yuan.

Recently, Nayuki’s Tea announced that it will invest 525 million yuan in Lele Tea. After the transaction is completed, Nayuki’s Tea will hold 43.64% of Lele Tea’s shares and become the largest shareholder. This year, Nayuki has successively invested in the milk tea brand “Cha Yiji”, the coffee brand operator “AOKKA”, the 0-sucrose bakery brand “Cranesuo”, and the fresh fruit coffee chain brand “Monster Sleepy”.

SHEIN will spend $15 million to upgrade the factory.

According to media reports, two of SHEIN’s supplier factories were found to violate local working hours regulations. SHEIN responded on December 5 that it had reduced orders from the two factories and would spend $15 million to upgrade the factories in the next three to four years.

Many lithium companies in Yichun, Jiangxi temporarily suspended production due to environmental impact assessment issues.

According to China Business News, due to serious metal pollution in the water quality of Jinjiang River in Gaoan City under the jurisdiction of Yichun, many upstream lithium salt enterprises have temporarily suspended production in order to cooperate with environmental protection investigations. In 2021, Yichun’s lithium carbonate output will be 81,000 tons, more than a quarter of the country’s total. By 2025, the planned output of lithium carbonate in Yichun is about 500,000 tons, and it is expected to generate more than 10 million tons of slag waste.

Musk’s brain-computer interface company Neuralink has been accused of illegal animal experiments.

According to reports, Neuralink is under investigation by the US government for allegedly violating the US Animal Welfare Act. Some internal employees have come forward and accused the company of causing unnecessary suffering to experimental animals and causing more deaths than expected in order to keep up with the schedule. At the end of last month, Musk said in a speech that the relevant preparations were ready, and he expected to start human trials of brain-computer interface within six months.

A Blackstone property trust limited investor withdrawals.

Recently, a real estate income trust fund (BREIT) of Blackstone Group (Blackstone) suffered investors to withdraw funds. BREIT sets a withdrawal cap of 2% of net assets per month and 5% quarterly. Applications exceeding the current limit are rejected. Blackstone explained that such a design is to avoid liquidity mismatch. The fund has net assets of approximately US$70 billion and assets under management of more than US$120 billion.

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