Friends around me know that I think Momo with four or five yuan has rare investment value, why do I think so? Because it seems to me that this is the standard Munger one-foot-high bar. This extremely obvious underestimation consists of the following three components:
1. In such a bad economy, it still has the profitability of earning 300 million US dollars per year.
2.0.65 times pb + $200 million repurchase + 14% dividend rate, 0.66 times pb combined with repurchase means that every 1 yuan repurchased by this company means that all shareholders earn 50 cents, which means that this company You don’t have to do anything, just use your fingers to invest 1 yuan of cash in the company’s account, and you will get back 1 yuan and 5 immediately. When the company launched a repurchase plan of 200 million US dollars in June, I was almost sure that it would be difficult not to make money from this investment. Assuming that the company’s stock price does not rise, the repurchase of 200 million US dollars can be completed at a price of four or five yuan And considering that the company did not pay dividends during the period and the company still earns 300 million a year, what will the company’s situation be like after 2 years? The company’s market value is 800 million, and the company’s net assets are 1.9 billion (15-2+6). The company will become a company with a pb of less than 0.5 and a price-earnings ratio of less than 3 times.
3. The company’s willingness to reward shareholders. The company’s past operating records have proved that Tang is always an honest and trustworthy boss who will not infringe upon the interests of minority shareholders. This point is very critical to such an investment. When you are sure of this point with various understandings, this one-foot-high bar is formed.
Of course, many people have raised a lot of doubts about investing in this company. In summary, I mainly see these two points. I also take this opportunity to talk about my views on these two doubts:
1. Momo has not grown or is not optimistic about Momo’s business.
I don’t know when it started, it seems that there is a demonic wind blowing: no growth = no investment, but I don’t think there is an absolute relationship between the two. What we invest in is the return on investment. We invest 1 yuan in it, and every year How much money can help me earn back has nothing to do with whether the company’s business grows or not. A fast-growing company, if you buy it at an exorbitant price, your return on investment is likely to be mediocre, and a company that is not growing, if you buy it at a very suitable price, and the company actively rewards shareholders If so, the investment has the potential to pay off spectacularly. There is another saying that Momo’s business is not optimistic and may not be sustainable. To be honest, I am not sure about this. It is not easy to judge, but buying at such a price, in fact, this stuff is not so good. Important, as long as the company’s management is reliable, you won’t lose money if you can’t continue to do business in the future. Some people I want to criticize. They always think that Momo’s business has no future, but they think that those electric car companies that burn billions of dollars a quarter have a future. I want to say: Momo’s today may be a future that many companies will never be able to achieve. I don’t mean to diss any company, but what I want to say is that as long as you use basic business common sense, you should be able to realize that Those so-called tracks that are popular now, with the increase in the intensity of competition, some companies may not be able to earn a penny back for investors from birth to death, but the securities of these companies used to be sold at an incredible price. In the transaction, how big the investment risk is here can be judged only by simple business common sense. In addition, it is sometimes difficult for us to judge whether a company’s business has a future. Is there such a possibility: some electric car companies that everyone thought were very popular a year ago disappeared after three or four years. But momo’s business is still going on?
2. Buying and underestimating Chinese concept stocks does not work
With regard to Chinese concept stocks, there have indeed been a lot of negative cases in the past, which has led some people to think that it must be wrong to buy undervalued Chinese concept stocks. But I think this understanding is not comprehensive enough. This point is very related to the third point mentioned above, that is, whether the major shareholders are reliable and whether the company has the willingness to return shareholders. Many previous cases did not work. There were institutional reasons, and there were also reasons why the major shareholders of the company violated the interests of the minority shareholders. But the most taboo thing about investing is to generalize. You can’t say that many company bosses may be unkind, and conclude that 100% of the company’s bosses are unkind.
Finally, let’s talk about why no one came to cross this one-foot-high hurdle?
In the investment industry, I think the greatest saying is: buying stocks is buying a company. The reason why few comrades cross this one-foot-high column is that most people are still speculating in stocks, not buying companies.
There are 33 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/4175358126/237567630
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.