Investment points
The ethylene industry has experienced a century of refining, with mature and diversified production technologies and abundant downstream products, which is the core of the petrochemical industry. In 1920, the first commercial ethylene plant was built. After a century of development, the ethylene industry gradually formed a process system based on naphtha, ethane, coal/methanol production methods, and mature and diverse cracking technologies. The ethylene plant is the core of the progress of military production. In the future, the technical development direction of the cracking furnace will gradually turn to large-scale, green and intelligent. Catalysts are the key to realizing high-performance, low-cost, and large-scale production of olefins, and reforms have also contributed to the continuous upgrading of ethylene downstream products.
Changes in ethylene production capacity are mainly affected by policies, raw material prices and demand. Before 2025, China will lead the growth of production capacity and shift from raw material-driven to technology-driven. Since the 21st century, the three production capacity expansions (ethanol in the Middle East, shale gas in the United States, and coal-to-ethylene in China) were mainly driven by raw material costs. expansion. Through the review of three representative overseas ethylene technology companies, we believe that (1) focusing on the development of the main business with competitive advantages is the path for chemical companies to become bigger and stronger, and it is also a solution to the reversal of difficulties; (2) through technology Penetrating the development of the global polyolefin industry at all levels is one of the breakthrough paths for the increasingly competitive ethylene industry. Therefore, we believe that technological and technological progress will be the main driving factors for future production capacity, which is reflected in the gradual independence of my country’s ethylene plant technology and key raw materials/catalysts, and downstream products are more suitable for the consumer market.
The diversification of ethylene raw materials has become an inevitable trend. my country’s large ethylene equivalent gap and high dependence on crude oil imports highlight the importance of diversification of olefin raw materials. The availability of raw materials, price level, production process and other factors make coal/methanol to ethylene and ethane cracking to olefins projects have their own advantages. Under the dual-carbon target, breakthroughs have been made in technologies such as direct cracking of crude oil to olefins.
R&D investment + new consumer demand, olefin products tend to be high-end. With the expansion of my country’s ethylene production capacity, downstream products have also entered the stage of supply growth, low-end products have serious homogeneity, and competition has intensified. From the perspective of the global situation, China’s chemical R&D investment is continuously increasing, and China will enter a high value-added chemical area. With the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure, relatively new fields such as semiconductors, electronic appliances, new energy, information communication, and aerospace are developing well, which is expected to drive the continuous growth of demand for upstream chemical new materials. It is estimated that by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, my country’s consumption of new chemical materials will reach 57 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate will rise to 75%, accounting for more than 10% of the overall chemical industry.
New materials worthy of attention in the downstream of ethylene: polyethylene is the main downstream demand for ethylene (accounting for 61%), focusing on metallocene polyethylene (mPE), photovoltaic EVA, POE, lithium battery films and high-end BOPET films in new energy and other fields The demand is increasing, and technological breakthroughs bring a domestic alternative space.
Conclusions and Recommendations. The ethylene industry has undergone a century of development and evolution, and the traditional production process has matured. Under the current dual background of energy innovation and energy security, we believe that the future development direction of the ethylene industry will be diversification of raw materials, low-carbon technology and product quality. High-end. Focus on two main lines: 1) With oil price fluctuations, coal-to-olefins and alkanes-to-ethylene have their own advantages. my country’s coal chemical industry has natural resources and leading technical experience, and it has obvious cost disadvantages under the high overseas energy prices; the supply of ethane in the United States is increasing, but there is no major new addition of downstream ethylene crackers, and the price of ethane is expected to return to a reasonable range. Hydrocarbon chemical industry has the advantages of low energy consumption, low carbon emission, short process, high yield, and high hydrogen production. It is a process encouraged by national policies. 2) The launch of ethylene production capacity will be driven by technology and new market demand in the future. New materials are an important breakthrough for the digestion of ethylene production capacity. Chemical companies that focus on scientific and technological research and development and whose products are more in line with market development trends will be more competitive; my country The major refining and chemical industry has made a breakthrough in EVA, and it is expected to form a new growth point in POE and other aspects in the future. Key recommendations: Satellite Chemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, etc.
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