2023 investment strategy for the electronics industry: Xinchuang industry and semiconductor localization are accelerating, and the future of automotive electronics and AR/VR has come (report attached)

core point of view

Looking forward to 2023, we believe that the investment opportunities brought about by independent controllability and industrial innovation are worthy of attention. In terms of independent controllability, we continue to be optimistic about the opportunities for printers and CPUs under the support of Xinchuang policy, and the opportunities for domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment/materials/parts. In terms of innovation, it is recommended to focus on technology iterations in the field of IC design, new energy vehicles, and investment opportunities brought by VR/AR.

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized safety, and the Xinchuang industry rose strongly. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of safety, and the Xinchuang industry is closely related to safety. Xinchuang policy mainly emphasizes adherence to the principle of independent control of key technologies, forming independent research and development capabilities on key platforms, key components, and key information infrastructure, reducing external dependence and avoiding single dependence. At present, the Xinchuang industry is penetrating from the party and government to other industries. Under the background of the country’s promotion of the development of Xinchuang industry, domestic printers and CPUs are ushering in new opportunities for development: according to our calculations, laser printers have a market stock of tens of millions, and the demand for government systems is particularly strong; the government and state-owned enterprises and institutions have become the CPU field. billion-level market.

The domestic substitution of semiconductors is accelerating, and the fields of equipment/materials/components are ushering in opportunities. According to IC insights data, in 2021, the domestic IC demand scale will be 187 billion US dollars, but the self-sufficiency rate is only 17%, and there is a huge space for domestic substitution. In recent years, local IC design manufacturers have continued to rise, domestic fabs have accelerated production expansion, domestic equipment, materials and components have been imported at an accelerated pace, and domestic semiconductor manufacturers have ushered in a golden development period for localization. Specifically: 1) In the field of IC design, servers and special ICs are booming, and the iterative upgrade of DDR5 and other technologies has brought new opportunities for related chip design manufacturers; 2) In the field of semiconductor equipment, the industry’s growth attributes are safe, and leading manufacturers are subdivided The initial introduction has been achieved, and the technical level/process coverage is expected to increase rapidly; 3) In the field of semiconductor materials, breakthroughs have been made in technology and product coverage, and domestic large silicon wafers, CMP materials, targets, etc. are ushering in rapid volume opportunities; 4) In the field of semiconductor equipment components, the global market space exceeds 50 billion U.S. dollars. The continuous advancement of the localization of parts and components of domestic fab superimposed equipment manufacturers is expected to drive domestic equipment components manufacturers to usher in high growth.

The penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerating, and the trend of electrification and intelligence has brought high-speed growth momentum to automotive electronics. From January to October 22, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in my country reached 4.36 million, a year-on-year increase of 82%. The penetration rate climbed from 15% at the end of 21 to 26%. The industry is booming. Under the long-term trend of electrification and intelligence, my country’s automotive electronics industry chain will usher in deterministic growth opportunities: 1) In terms of electrification, the consumption of single-vehicle power semiconductors has increased significantly, which in turn will drive the value of supporting components such as high-voltage connectors to increase; 2) ) In terms of intelligence, high-end automatic driving is on the horizon, multi-sensor fusion is the general trend, the volume and price of vehicle-mounted cameras are rising, and the eve of large-scale loading of laser radar is coming, and manufacturers related to high-power semiconductor lasers are expected to benefit.

The VR/AR ecology is maturing at an accelerated pace, and domestic companies are making in-depth deployments. According to IDC data, global VR/AR shipments are expected to reach 16 million units in 23 years and exceed 20 million units in 24 years. The industry will usher in a new round of comprehensive development. 1) In terms of new applications, under the leadership of international giants and the catalysis of domestic policies, domestic enterprises have already occupied a place in components, OEMs, terminal brands and content applications, and companies in the industrial chain are expected to achieve better results than in the era of smartphones. 2) In terms of new technologies, the performance and specifications of some products of high-end electronic materials of domestic manufacturers have reached or approached the international advanced technical level. Future technological breakthroughs, policy catalysis, cost and supporting advantages will further promote domestic leading electronic materials Development of functional and packaging material companies.

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