core point of view
The overall performance of lithium batteries is excellent, and my country is a major producer of lithium batteries. Lithium batteries have the advantages of high energy density and long cycle life. Its energy density can reach 100-200wh/kg, and the cycle life is usually greater than 1000 times. At the same time, it has the advantages of fast charging, high power discharge, and good environmental performance. After years of development, my country has become a major producer of lithium batteries. In 2021, global lithium battery shipments will be 562.4GWh, of which my country’s lithium battery shipments will reach 327GWh, accounting for 58.1%. In my country’s lithium battery shipments, power lithium battery shipments will account for 69% in 2021, which is the main component of lithium batteries. The concentration of the global power lithium battery industry is relatively high. From January to September 2022, the global power lithium battery installed capacity CR5 will reach 76.3%, of which CATL ranks first with 35.1% installed capacity.
Lithium battery production capacity is expanding steadily to welcome the TWh era . Under the favorable background of the lithium battery industry, my country’s lithium battery manufacturers are actively expanding lithium battery production capacity. Taking some leading lithium battery manufacturers as an example, from January to October 2022, Ningde Times has successively added five new lithium battery projects to build production lines for power battery systems and energy storage systems, including a power battery system with an annual output of 100GWh in Hungary Production line; Yiwei Lithium Energy has successively added 5 lithium battery projects, of which the total production capacity planning of 4 domestic new projects reaches 110GWh/year; Funeng Technology has successively added 4 lithium battery projects, with a total production capacity planning of 75GWh/year; Penghui Energy has successively added 2 lithium battery projects, with a total production capacity planning of 40GWh/year; Guoxuan Hi-Tech has successively added 4 lithium battery projects, with a total production capacity planning of 80GWh/year. In the future, the production capacity of lithium batteries may continue to increase, laying the foundation for the rapid development of the industry.
At present, the downstream demand for lithium batteries is strong, and the industry boom is expected to continue. In terms of new energy vehicles, the current boom in new energy vehicles continues. From 2012 to 2021, global sales of new energy vehicles increased from 125,000 to 6.75 million; in the first half of 2022, global sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.087 million, a year-on-year increase of 65%. The rapid development of the new energy vehicle market has driven the continuous increase in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries. From 2017 to 2021, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries in my country increased from 36.4GWh to 154.5GWh; from January to October 2022, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries in my country was 224.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 108.7%. In terms of energy storage, with the grid connection of new energy power generation, the new energy storage track has ushered in development opportunities. At present, energy storage lithium batteries are the main new energy storage technology. In 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage lithium batteries in my country will account for 89.7% of new energy storage. From 2017 to 2021, my country’s energy storage lithium battery shipments increased from 3.1GWh to 48GWh; in the first half of 2022, my country’s energy storage lithium battery shipments were 44.5GWh, and the overall scale was close to the level of 2021. Gaogong Lithium Battery predicts that my country’s energy storage lithium battery shipments will exceed 90GWh in 2022, a year-on-year increase of over 87%. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and energy storage tracks may drive the demand for lithium batteries to continue to increase.
The ternary tends to be high-nickel, and the growth space of lithium iron phosphate is broad. In terms of ternary materials, as the content of Ni in lithium batteries increases, the energy density of battery modules increases from 150wh/kg to over 200wh/kg, which is in line with the development trend of lithium batteries to high energy density. The proportion of high-nickel ternary materials in ternary materials continues to increase. In 2021, the shipment of 8-series ternary materials will account for 36%, an increase of 14pct compared with 2020. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, my country’s planned lithium iron phosphate projects will exceed 3 million tons in 2021, and the planned projects in 2022 will add up to a total planned production capacity of more than 5.4 million tons. Lithium iron phosphate production capacity may usher in rapid expansion. At the same time, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate has achieved rapid growth. In the first half of 2022, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate will be 410,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 130%. With the continuous release of new production capacity, lithium iron phosphate shipments are expected to maintain a high growth trend.
On the whole, relevant companies are actively expanding lithium battery production capacity, superimposed on the high prosperity of downstream new energy vehicles and energy storage tracks, and the future prosperity of the lithium battery industry is expected to continue.
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