A few days ago, I was chatting with my colleagues, and my colleagues mentioned that someone asked us why we were able to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by so much this year. We laughed. Didn’t we outperform a lot last year? , what is there to say, because what should be said has been said countless times before. It comes down to our belief in values and common sense. Since you believe in value, you must pay attention to whether the asset itself is good enough. Since you believe in common sense, you must buy good assets with good prices. Judging risks is also very important, but more importantly, you must know the direction. Every choice should be a friend of time.
It sounds simple, but it is very difficult to do, especially the stock market has been so turbulent in recent years. At every moment when others are desperate, you can still believe in value and common sense, which is called true belief . What’s more, speaking on a flat interactive platform like Xueqiu, people can always criticize you with emotions when they are not going well. We value risks, sharing industry risk points will be sprayed, we value valuation, buy cheap The goods are going to be sprayed, we are in awe of the future, and the diversification of investment is also sprayed. The most popular on Snowball is the Ba-style price investment, but unfortunately we are not, we are more inclined to Graham, not to mention because we value risks and buy cheap goods, we are standing at the bottom of the chain of contempt. Therefore, 2022 is still the beginning of being sprayed…
In January 2022, after the skyrocketing growth of Internet companies in the past two years, the valuation can be seen to be very expensive at a glance. Now everyone can see that even after several months of skyrocketing, most of the targets have fallen by more than 50% since the beginning of the year. And like every industry, when it is very expensive, those rational voices disappear, and the market is full of grouping and games, and those who do not participate and speak out about the risks have to be criticized. Similar stories happened again and again.
0122: We feel that even if it is a very good company, it is not worth considering if it is too expensive. Of course, most people didn’t see it that way, and that price later became a one-year high in January. In our view , overestimation is a risk .
At the beginning of the year, two premises for this year were mentioned, and they were also mentioned in the live broadcast. Looking back now, it may be confirmed that it is basically correct.
0121: I also talked about the promising industry and time cost. The Internet and medicine also had a good allocation value after the subsequent slump returned to a relatively reasonable level that can be seen at a glance, so there was this wave of skyrocketing at the end of the year. As for the post-epidemic period, it is even simpler.
0218: For example, tourism in the post-cycle period, before 2019, the annual growth rate of the entire industry is 6%, which is almost a sustainable growth industry. I used to enjoy the same public utility valuation as hydropower for a long time, but at the bottom at that time, there were valuations at 10pe or even single-digit pe. After 2018, some companies managed to reduce ticket revenue to only 10% of total revenue. Most of the revenue comes from a series of value-added services such as hotels, catering, and performances. The business model is good. And it has also cultivated many new attractions. It’s ridiculous that most people still think that they all rely on selling tickets and have no growth potential. And people don’t believe that there will be a return to relatively normal conditions in general.
0228: Although the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 also fell by 5% in 2021, in fact, a bunch of industries including liquor, Internet, technology, and non-ferrous metals are still very expensive, so we think that if there is a little more decline, there will be better opportunities. And what we need to find is the spring compressed to the limit. Just like in the past, we also found it, and we actually got some gains within the year.
0228: We just do very simple things, know ourselves and the world.
0310: Views on cyclical industries, as expected, many people died in cyclical industries this year. The difference is that the resource cycle has already reached its peak in the first half to the first quarter, but what happened in Europe and those two countries and the upstream boom on our side pushed them to a new peak, but what’s the use? The lethality is even greater when it goes down later, and some industries are still just beginning. No matter how much you earn by luck, it is easy to go back as long as you are in a daze. Unsurprisingly, the prompt risk will still be sprayed.
0314: It’s difficult to be ordinary, and ordinary mind plays a huge role in the face of great difficulties.
0316: I posted an article. Every time the market is in extreme times, people’s opinions are the same. Even if I post it again, the comments below are still the most pessimistic . So when the public is pessimistic, you don’t need to reason, just ignore it, because it doesn’t make sense. Links: Web links will not change in the past few hundred years, and we believe that human nature will not change . This article can have meaning beyond time. But most people don’t see it that way,
0328: We do get better after each liquidity shock, the same in the past and the same in the present. Why? Because we believe in value and common sense, we will take the difficult road that others do not take.
0329: The loss of diversity is the extreme manifestation of human irrationality, whether it is rising or falling. The most deterministic frameworks on the market, we are uncertain frameworks. There’s always going to be criticism for doing something different, especially around here, and it’s normal. People don’t know what to do, the stock market is relatively fair, and time has the answer.
0411: Say underestimated and continue to be ridiculed. After that, targets with high dividend yields and undervalued consumer healthcare are much stronger than other sectors, and many even have positive returns.
0421: You must be present when the stock market crashes, so that you will have the opportunity later. We are here, so there will be gains in the future. And most people don’t believe it.
0426: At that time, the choice was very simple, but difficult, easy because of reason, difficult because of fear. Everyone is still gripped by fear
0427: At the bottom, I joked with everyone that they thought we were strong, which resulted in a wave of attacks, comparing us with others, scolding us and disrespecting others, the same as every time, because when we do reverse investment, we will always Being attacked, especially when there was a period of low points, of course, like every time, I slapped them in the face with the results. We don’t compare with others, but if you insist on comparing, the result is that we are better. We just go our own way and go after what we want to do.
0502: A look at the services sector, which provides 45% of our total employment. So the practice at that time must have been unsustainable. Now until the end of the year, we have seen changes.
0506: I thought it was a good time to buy the stock market, but as a result, the track continued to carnival, and some things, looking back now, it may be difficult to distinguish the cause and effect, maybe it is mutual cause and effect. So fewer people believe in common sense, more people start to despair, and there are more attacks on us.
0511: When faced with a choice, we still believe in value and common sense—if the main contradiction is not resolved, there will be no solution. The main contradiction is one of the two premises mentioned at the beginning of the year. The core of commercial society is circulation, and the core of circulation is contact.
0519: The reverse in our eyes has always chosen to work with competitive companies and help heroes in distress.
0522: I shared our research on the economic cycle in the past. It seems that many people still find it beneficial, and then there are many attacks.
0613: The rebound is a carnival of track stocks and cyclical stocks . One is terribly high in valuation, and the other is at the top of the cycle, and its valuation is also terribly high. We continue to insist on believing in value and continue to be despised by all kinds. What you said is correct, we will definitely fail for many periods of time, but this is the reason why we can make new highs and make money for a long time. You can’t win in the short run, but you can win in the long run. Now we have seen the plunge of track stocks and cyclical stocks. It’s a pity that we are often sprayed, but no one will apologize ![[笑哭]](http://assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_34_laughcry.png "[laughing and crying]"){kind=small}
0609: We still “foolishly” think that the main contradiction needs to be resolved, but in the end, smart people don’t do that, only we know what we do.
0624: The stock market is always a test, but we still believe in value.
0620: In the past, we insisted on being fools, and the future will be the same. Good property with good price.
0706: We still believe that development can solve problems. There are a lot of medical consumption that are worth buying. At the same time, the market is still frantically pushing resources upstream and on the track.
0720: How do we do stupid things in the stock market, we buy bargains, we are buyers of possibilities, combiners of mathematical expectations, and we are a downright weakling. Only do simple things. The direction is easy, but the rhythm is difficult.
0804: Every time they say different, they are always the majority.
0807: When everyone is madly complaining that nothing will change, when everyone is desperate, our thoughts.
0826: We shared “Development is the last word”, which talked about common sense, main contradictions, and some references. I think that even if the expectations in October fail, we should believe in common sense. As a result, expectations are indeed disappointed later, and the market is desperate to a low point, but it still returns to common sense. Then there are comments on this article, still full of dissent
0907: I shared some research on exports. At that time, only the export data was eye-catching, but in fact, an inflection point appeared, and the market was blindly optimistic. Well, when the data came out in November, everyone finally found out.
0919-0927: About courage and hope that everyone believes in values and common sense.
1009: After expectations failed, the market began to enter despair, but we are still optimistic, but not unreasonable optimism, rational optimism.
1028: When everyone is most desperate.
Then everyone will know later that people who believe in common sense have initially been rewarded, and the overall market has also risen a bit. A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, consumption, medicine, and the Internet have risen more. It should be relatively better next year. Of course, there are still a bunch of people who spray me. 2022 starts with being sprayed and ends with being sprayed.
I promised netizens before that I would review my speech at Xueqiu this year. I simply picked some and sorted them out. They are all in the time map, and each one is on the homepage. If you are interested, you can look through them yourself. Of course, there are more worth seeing than these. Many people discuss what the main line is. In fact, for us, the main line is the same every year, which is to buy good assets at a good price. This year’s direction is very simple, and the other is difficult, but just like every year in the past, we still choose to believe in value and common sense. We also don’t have any strategy, it’s the same every year. It is a good asset to buy at a good price.
We are always faced with major choices one after another in our lives and investments, and these choices make people what they should be. Most people choose interests instead of the right thing every time, so for some people the road is easy, because few people take the right road.
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