I don’t know when it started. The feeling of time has changed from long to short. The situation of writing the annual summary last year is still vivid in my memory.
We don’t realize the preciousness of many things until they are lost, the most important of which is time.
Time flows through everyone equally, and we also respond to time in different ways. He gives us youth, but also brings old age, leaves the best memories, and also brings some sad moments.
The passage of time when I was young means gaining, gaining more freedom, and gaining more knowledge. When I grow up, the passing of time means losing. I have seen many important people for the last time, and I have lost many possibilities in life.
I have expectations, I am busy but not in a hurry , I like this sentence so much now.
It is the meaning of our efforts to have expectations in our hearts. In this ordinary day, we need some goals to keep ourselves going.
Being too busy is our attitude in life. Insist on doing the right thing, and then be patient, this is the essence of investing and life.
The years are silent, but it makes people flustered. We must know how to slow down and not forget to feel the present when we keep moving forward.
Today is a special day, because the new year is about to usher in, and today is also an ordinary day. If you don’t look at the date, it may not be much different from a normal day.
But even if he is so ordinary, it is worth shouting long live.
Because, so far, you’ve made it through all the things you didn’t think would pass.
Is there anything more worthy of celebration than that? Is there anything more worthy of praise than this?
Let’s say goodbye to 2022 through this article.
1
a hope
Siqian began to help one or two children one-on-one every year.
As an ordinary person, I have no ability to change the world, but I hope to give others a little light through my own actions.
2
Simple investment statistics
Equity account 2022 return: -6.23%
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index will increase by -21.53% in 2022
GEM index will increase in 2022 -29.37%
Science and Technology 50 Index 2022 increase -31.35%
Simply sort out the holdings. At the end of October, a part of the Hang Seng ETF was added. The current holdings are as follows.
Hong Kong stocks accounted for 50%: 34% of Tencent Holdings; 7% of Zhonggai Internet; 6% of Hang Seng ETF.
Generally speaking, this part of Hong Kong stocks is basically related to Tencent.
The latest view on Tencent, ” Third Quarterly Report Sees the First Light, Talking about Tencent’s Difficulties and Chips ” has been discussed and will not be repeated.
I think there are several reasons for this round of Tencent’s decline.
1. The valuation of Tencent, which was around 700 Hong Kong dollars before, is not cheap.
2. Policy issues
3. The impact of the possible delisting of Zhonggai.
4. Factors such as the interest rate hike in the beautiful country led to the overall decline of Hong Kong stocks.
5. Performance pressure brought about by the economic downturn.
At present, 1. The valuation problem has become underestimated; 2. The policy problem has been reversed; 3. The problem of the central stock market has been alleviated at least temporarily; 4. The Hong Kong stock market has basically stopped its downward trend.
The only problem is performance. I think there is a high probability that it will improve next year.
The current pessimism is enough, the long-term demand is still there, and the conditions will improve in all aspects next year. I am relatively optimistic about Tencent in 2023.
focus
The positions are relatively old. I bought a certain position in April 2020, sold most of the position at the beginning of 2021, and bought a little with spare money when it fell this year. (The spare money part is not included in the real offer statistics.)
The most recent purchase was at 4.28 yuan on October 31 this year, and this part was traded to the Hang Seng ETF at 6 yuan. (It was announced on the day of the transaction, so I won’t take screenshots one by one)
Focus is a company with a very simple business model. The elevator advertising space generates traffic, and then monetizes the traffic to make money
In the past two years, the economic pressure has been relatively high, and the demand for advertising has decreased. However, in the long run, the industry structure and demand ceiling of Elevator Media have not changed.
On the supply side of the industry, Focus is still the absolute leader, while on the demand side of the industry, the overall demand has decreased. It is not that our travel methods have been replaced, or that other new traffic sources have occupied the advertising market.
When things gradually return to normal, we still have to take the elevator, and the demand for advertising will still recover.
For a normal Focus, I think it is not too difficult to return to a profit of 6 billion to 7 billion, and a valuation of 20 to 25 PE.
Gree Electric
Good air conditioning and stable dividends are the bottom line for me to hold Gree, and other aspects are regarded as unexpected joy. As long as the air conditioner is done well and no big mistakes are made, I think the current Gree is still underestimated.
Songcheng Performing Arts
Although tourism is the most beneficial after returning to normal, from a fundamental point of view, Songcheng is not so flexible.
let me tell you my opinion
Normally, in 2019, Songcheng’s net profit is about 1.3 billion. Compared with 2019, the current situation of Songcheng’s parks has not increased much. Due to the epidemic situation, the more potential Zhuhai project and Australia project, in order to reduce the pressure on the listing subject Both were transferred to Songcheng Group, and these two parks will not be built immediately.
So even when things return to normal, Song City’s profitability has not greatly improved.
According to normal conditions, there will be a tourism outbreak period, taking into account various factors, and being optimistic. A 50% increase on the basis of the net profit in 19 years is a net profit of about 1.9 billion. Calculated at 25PE, it is actually only a market value of about 47 billion.
Songcheng, which has a market value of more than 39 billion, does not have much room. I personally may reduce some of Songcheng’s positions as it rises.
China Ping An
Two influencing factors of past peace:
On the sales side, the reform of agents and the decline in optional consumer demand under the epidemic have led to a decrease in sales.
On the investment side, because there are some real estate assets, it may affect the investment income.
At present, on the sales side, the agency reform has basically entered the final stage, and the decline in optional consumer demand brought about by the economic downturn is likely to improve in the next year.
On the investment side, the real estate policy has shifted, and the risk has been greatly reduced.
For Ping An, I am relatively optimistic next year.
Moutai, Yanghe
High-end liquor is one of the few companies with a simple business model, a slow increase in demand, and a certain ability to raise prices.
My personal point of view is that the valuation of liquor is not very cheap, and most of them are within a reasonable range. For liquor with a PE of more than 30, it is relatively difficult to earn money for a substantial increase in valuation.
Therefore, it is good to lower expectations for liquor and earn a stable performance growth income.
In addition to the active investment account, Black and White also has a small fixed investment account
Since re-starting fixed investment in November last year, I have bought one after another. Currently, I have 650,000 positions. I don’t have such a high return expectation for fixed investment. I just force myself to save money and get a return that exceeds bank deposits.
This year is a difficult stage for investment, but waiting itself is also a part of investment. Any time the start of excess returns, there will be a wave of difficult cycles before. The current expectations are low enough, and we will be able to earn valuations in the future. The double benefit of improved performance.
Wait patiently when it’s time to wait, it seems more attractive soon, once you are in a hurry, you will panic and lose what you have now.
3
Investment outlook for the future
For 2023, I am more optimistic about the Hang Seng Index, some consumer companies and the Internet.
Tencent is my heavy position, and I also transferred part of my position to the Hang Seng Index at the end of October
There are three main aspects in choosing an investment opportunity, the expected difference, the probability of realization, and the lower limit of tolerance.
Let me talk about poor expectations first.
One of the reasons for losing money in the stock market is to buy businesses when expectations are too high.
Therefore, in the next one or two years, the company did perform well, but the expected events will not have much reaction. On the contrary, the growth of the company will slow down slightly, even if it is lower than expected, it will fall sharply.
As for the current Internet and some consumer companies, the market is relatively pessimistic about them.
At this time, we only need to pay attention to the future performance of the company. If it is just needed in the future, it will be more difficult for him to become more pessimistic in terms of valuation. On the contrary, once the economy improves and expectations change, it is easy for us to earn a valuation increase plus a performance increase. double benefit.
Let’s talk about the probability of realization
When most people’s income is affected, no matter what means are used to stimulate the economy, it will eventually be reflected in the recovery of most people’s income and consumption.
The income of the Internet and consumer goods is basically related to the spending power of most people, and they will naturally benefit in the future.
In general, I think the probability of realizing the above ideas is still very high, so the most important thing at the moment is to hold on to it, and try not to do things that frequently empty and fill positions in order to avoid fluctuations.
If you think the end of a car is a huge boost in wealth, it’s important that you be in the car, not trying to get the cheapest ticket.
Finally, the lower limit of tolerance should be considered.
Take Tencent as an example. In the past year, its valuation and performance were at the lowest stage in history, and the environment it was in was also the worst. There is not much room for all these variables to get worse, but it is already improving.
But even if this is 100% successful in my cognition, it may be because of my cognitive limitations that I made such a judgment.
So never invest money you can’t afford to lose, and never use leverage.
I am fully optimistic about the stock market in 2023, remain patient, and beware of the lower limit.
That’s all for the investment-related parts, and then I will write detailed articles, and then we will talk about other parts.
4
2022 – It’s okay to be imperfect
Tell everyone a secret.
Action is the only way to produce results.
Let me tell you another secret.
No one can never make mistakes.
Only action can change the result, but as long as action is taken, mistakes will be made occasionally.
But it doesn’t matter, on the way to the top, it is normal to stumble a few times, it is these past mistakes that make you stronger and stronger, and finally let you reach a higher position.
As long as you are acting, one day, you will find your own sea of stars through trial and error.
If you look at the past with the eyes of the rearview mirror, there must be many imperfect choices.
It is normal to have some regrets at this time.
The regret we always feel is a negative emotion. In fact, regret means that we believe in more possibilities and believe that hard work will become better.
As Takeshi Kitano said: I still have the possibility to change. When I think of this, my heart beats.
Staggering forward, while recovering, this is life.
Forge ahead knowing your insufficiency, looking forward to the mountains.
Many things have happened in 2022. Economically and in life, even if you try your best, there may still be many unsatisfactory things.
The lows in life, and every pain is real, but please tell yourself, trust that in this lifetime, we won’t be here all the time.
I like a passage very much: If you like summer, it is because of the existence of winter. If you like winter, it is because of the existence of summer. Why do people have to work and go to school? It is for fun in the future. If you just play every day , then it may not be a particularly happy thing to play.
Only when people are restrained can they have freedom, only when people need pain can they have happiness, and only when people need troughs can they reach peaks.
Sometimes you may have regrets, you may encounter a trough, but please go on firmly, as long as you remain optimistic and keep moving forward, you will eventually find that mountains and seas have their own return dates, wind and rain have their own encounters, and difficulties will eventually be reconciled. Will be happy in the end.
A temporary trough will not affect your upward life.
2022 is destined to be extraordinary. We feel the pressure of the economy and the troubles of the epidemic, but everything will be fine.
The meaning of growth lies in learning to face everything in life calmly, facing some people leaving, facing some people coming, facing the small mistakes in life, and many problems that cannot be solved with all efforts, the sun is still the same Rise up, the grass and trees wither and flourish every year, all the reluctance, all the helplessness, we have to accept it.
Sometimes life is a bit difficult, but don’t forget to smile, the sixth child in life will not let you go just because you are frowning.
5
2023 – Don’t forget to love yourself
I turned on my phone this morning and saw that Pele, the football king, had passed away. It seems that many, many people have left this year. This is the ending that no one can escape.
On the first day of last year, I wrote an article “A New Year, Give Myself Some Suggestions”
At the end of this year, I still give myself the most important one.
With dreams and goals in mind, hard work will lead to success.
Don’t be fooled by the above rhetoric!
Nothing is fine, too!
Man is born, lives, and dies.
That alone is great.
Appropriate performance is the respect for life, and only when you have a rest can you move on.
It is good to be able to reach the goal, and enjoying the scenery along the way is also an option.
Lower expectations, reduce dependencies, and love yourself
To love yourself is to know that no matter how great your abilities are, there is always a limit to what you can do.
To know how to be content and happy, to know how to stop and rest.
Happiness in life is very simple, find the balance between ability and desire.
There are people in this world who are mediocre but full of happiness, and there are people who already have a lot but are still not reconciled.
Don’t let desires ruin your life.
In fact, everyone’s final destination is to lose everything, and the process is more important.
Go do something useless, you don’t need everything you do to be worthwhile.
What’s more, if you are willing to make you happy, he is the greatest value
Do you have to be successful? A life that is plain but full of love is even more admirable.
Use the little luck of life to face the uncertainty of the future, don’t always worry about the future, but ignore the excitement of the present.
To love yourself is to know, don’t care what other people think
Tolstoy said a word: What a great writer, he is only writing about his personal one-sidedness.
Right, everyone expresses their own opinions, but other people’s opinions are just opinions, and your mission is only one, which is to love yourself well. Your opinion of yourself is more important than anyone else’s opinion.
Except for relatives, most of the people you interact with should make you gentle and brave, not make you feel compromised and wronged.
If you find such a person around, please stay away.
Haruki Haruki said, you have to remember those who hold you tightly in the dark, those who make you laugh, those who chat with you all night,
The person who came to visit you by car, the person who cried with you
People who take you around and say they miss you.
It is these people who make up the warmth of your life bit by bit,
It is these warmths that keep you away from the haze,
It is these warmths that make you a kind person.
They are worth your attention.
To love yourself is to know that the present moment is also important
Every time I finish playing a game, I may feel a little excitement at the moment when I really defeat the final boss, but in fact, more memories come from every bit of the process.
In fact, life is not like this.
Orhan Pamuk said: No one knows when he is experiencing that he is experiencing the happiest moment of his life.
If you are too obsessed with pursuing a certain result, no matter whether you can get it in the end, you will ignore many wonderful moments and many important people at the moment.
Not everyone can be successful and famous, but fortunately, being successful is not the only choice for happiness.
Working hard during the day, reading a few pages of favorite books at night, doing something you like, and then lying down and sleeping, is also a very happy life.
Learn to appreciate the bumps along the way, and plant ideals along the way.
As Teacher Luo Xiang said:
Please be sure to save yourself from the fire and water without hesitation, over and over again, over and over again, and over and over again.
I hope we can all relax a bit, don’t look forward to the distant future too much, and don’t care too much about other people’s eyes. I hope we can all become such people, cherish the present, and live for ourselves.
6
Say goodbye to 2022
2022 will pass for better or for worse.
It is about to enter the moment of 2023, and I suddenly look back.
The first thing to see is the 2022 self.
I said to him: You are not bad.
So far, you’ve made it through all the things you didn’t think would pass.
That’s pretty impressive.
In the distance, there are many people I miss, and I really want to say goodbye to them again, and I really want to show them my current achievements.
Every memorable moment, I will think of them, this moment I suddenly understand.
It turns out that all the sudden memories in this world are because they have been kept in the bottom of my heart.
Farther away, vaguely visible is my 20-year-old self.
The phoenix trees are luxuriant, and the scorching sun in the world is just right. At that time, he was young, carefree, full of love and pride.
I smiled, it’s nice to be young.
I shouted to him loudly: You have to love yourself well, it is important to work hard, and it is also necessary to cherish youth, do more things you want to do, youth is your greatest capital, go to see people who love you more, because they There is no way to keep waiting for you.
If you are at a loss for a moment, just walk forward with a smile, as long as you don’t give up, no one can give up on you.
I envy you very much, because you are the past that I can never go back to.
I envy you very much, because you have the most precious thing, that is youth.
However, no matter how nostalgic the past is, it is just the past, and we must face the future.
2023 is coming, my wish is.
be a happy adult now
Be a happy uncle in the future
Be a happy old man when you are old.
In short, have a happy life
Always wiser than yesterday, always freer than last year. Know the world but not the world, stay naive through the world, be a free and self-disciplined person, and live seriously with the determination that is bound to be realized.
Chesterton said: The purpose of the new year is not to have a new year, but to have a new soul.
Forget all the bad things in the past, and discard all negative emotions. In 2023, we will travel lightly and move on.
@Today’s topic
#2022Investment Summary#
$Tencent Holdings(00700)$ $Ping An(SH601318)$
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