Three Black Swans in 2022

Welcome everyone to pay attention to my fund investment advisory portfolio:

$Changfeng Wenjian(TIAA026062)$ $Changfeng Optimal(TIAA026063)$

Let’s talk about yesterday’s scheduled investment first. My account and Mitt’s account have completed Changfeng’s preferred fixed investment to add positions. The total amount is 148,000 and 33,866 yuan respectively :

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There is only one trading day left in 2022. Looking back on this year, it is really a year with frequent black swans :

1 On February 24, geopolitical conflicts broke out (the position of the red arrow in the figure below), which affected the global supply chain. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3400 to 3200 points in this wave;

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2 Recurrence of the epidemic, in mid-March, I stayed at home in Shanghai. In December, at home in Shanghai. Most of the time this year, I was squatting at home (the 2 red arrow positions in the picture below)

The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3200 points to a minimum of more than 2800 points

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3 The Federal Reserve raised interest rates violently throughout the year.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve spent 10 years raising interest rates to around 2%;

But this year, it only took the Federal Reserve one year to pull the base interest rate to around 4.55%, which had a great impact on the global capital market.

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Each of them is a rare black swan event in history, and they all magically converged this year. To borrow the term from the technical school, it is ” three black swans “.

In this context, the rising index fell by 15% throughout the year, the CSI 300 and CSI 500 fell by about 20%, and the fund’s heavy position index fell by 24%. Looking at the world, this score is roughly in the lower half of several important indexes .

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Brazil, India, and the United Kingdom are the top three;

Shenzhen, Nasdaq, and Russia are the bottom three;

Among them, you can also pay attention to the Hang Seng Index. From 2020 to 2021, -16.9% will be the bottom, and this year -15% will perform poorly.

Black swans happen in financial markets, but I don’t believe there are black swans every year

Continue to invest regularly to hold $Changfeng Optimal (TIAA026063)$ and be bullish on A shares.

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