On the last trading day of 2021, taking advantage of Vanke’s rebound, after clearing Vanke, all the funds were bought into Shaanxi Coal Industry, and in the first half of 2022, all Shaanxi Coal was sold to buy Huaneng Hydropower with more than 5 yuan and about 6 yuan , and recently re-established a position in Shaanxi Coal Industry at 17 or 18 yuan. There are three main points of logic to be considered: first, coal supply is actually in a tight balance in the case of economic downturn in 2022, and it is not easy to break this tight balance under the expected economic recovery in 2023, while the production capacity of the supply side Expansion needs a time period. Coal prices will be in a state of high volatility. Primary energy sources such as oil and coal are in a mid-to-long-term upcycle similar to the Internet and consumer stock bubble burst in 2001. Second, the country continues to strengthen the market environment of long-term associations , actually weakens the price cycle, and there is a relatively thick buffer zone between the long-term cooperative price and the market price, smoothing the performance of coal companies, and at the same time controlling the impulse to expand production capacity on the supply side; third, the long-term return level of Shaanxi Coal is at Within the acceptable range, the current valuation level is probably the average profit level of less than 10 years. According to dividends, the stock price will be recovered within 15 years. It is still very good. A company that can reach this level is really not much.
On the other hand, before I buy a company, what I have to consider is a sensitivity analysis. In the case of possible unfavorable conditions superimposed, the coal will have a small adjustment cycle, and what will happen to the worst situation. We assume that domestic coal mines will experience large-scale losses as the condition for the bottom of the coal price. At this time, only companies with a large number of high-quality and low-cost development resources can make profits. At this time, Shaanxi Coal is still at a profit level of about 10 billion, that is, 1 yuan per share. About profits, dividends of about 0.6 yuan, in the process of stock price decline, the valuation will not have much support for the stock price, what really supports the stock price is the dividend that the market believes to be sustainable in the medium and long term, such as COSCO Shipping Holdings Dividends that the market thinks are unsustainable are not counted. Considering the level of risk-free interest rates, a dividend of 0.6 yuan can still support a stock price of around 12 yuan. This is likely to be the bottom area of Shaanxi Coal’s stock price when major adverse conditions occur. Not too big. At present, Shaanxi Coal’s stock price is about 18 yuan. After half-year dividends, it is equivalent to a cost level of about 16 yuan, which is more than 20% away from the worst stock price bottom area, and the company will provide you with more than ten percent of the market value of the position after half a year. funds. Therefore, from the perspective of probability, it is an investment with limited and controllable short-to-medium-term downside risks and good profitability.
The basic logic behind this investment’s medium- and long-term profitability is actually Shaanxi Coal’s large number of low-cost and high-quality resources plus its transportation location advantages, whether it’s boarding a ship in Bohai Bay or passing through the Haoji Railway. The characteristics of the early development areas are that their low-cost and high-quality resources have been gradually exhausted, and the cost of mining the remaining resources is getting higher and higher. However, the companies in these areas have very serious staff redundancy due to the early construction of mines. These companies objectively control The lower limit of the decline in coal prices has been set. The information revealed when Yongmei Coal defaulted on its debts in the past two years shows that a coal power company with an annual income of 10 billion has tens of thousands of employees. And like Xinjiang, there are many high-quality low-cost coal resources, but its transportation cost and transportation capacity will not change significantly in the short and medium term.
I currently have a position of about 2%. If the market falls further and gives a better opportunity, I will gradually increase my position, so as to control the maximum position to no more than 10% as the upper limit.
In the research on coal listed companies, I got the help of the materials and analysis results shared by Mr. @沙林子州@超级鹿鼎公, and I would like to express my gratitude!
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