#雪球星计划# In 2022, with the fireworks falling in the sky, the curtain also fell. Various unexpected events happened, and we witnessed the stock market drop that only happened once in many years. Most of the things that can be summarized are the survivors left behind, and behind the brilliant fireworks in the sky, most of the injured who did not show up are the normal state of us ordinary people. The big V who saw the snowball retreated in the last two days , but left the truth, thinking of what people often said before: “Everyone is laughing at XX, but everyone is XX.” By chance, I saw in the comments that someone regarded Xueqiu as a tavern at the entrance of the stock market. I think This should be a more interesting metaphor . Everyone sitting around the tavern before entering, listening to the old people telling about their painful or happy experiences, listening to the newcomers showing their youthful blood, or looking for the same as themselves. Ordinary people hug each other to keep warm and seek comfort. Not everyone came to admire the hero’s miraculous skills . For me, it’s just to think occasionally, go into the tavern to take a sip, and talk to myself.
This year is a very important year for me. On the one hand, I have been writing articles for about 2 years. I can look back and have some answers to these enterprise analysis cases with different characteristics. On the other hand, the complex and ever-changing market conditions have brought out black swans that should have been encountered once in many years in turn in recent years. This is extremely lucky for those who are not deeply involved in the market. When there is no money for teaching fees, I have learned the most profound things . This year, there are few or no business analyzes written , but I spent a lot of time thinking and stocking up the targets. In addition, it is really difficult to find companies that meet the opening conditions. Except for theme stocks, if the market gives an opportunity next year, there may be one . .
First classify the companies that I have written about before, and the corresponding articles can be searched at corresponding time points. Each of them represents a characteristic, and some are not included without obvious characteristics . No matter how good the content in the investment book is, It is not as deep as the memory that I have written and looked back.
The first category is killing logic. It is not scientific to classify the real estate chain as killing logic. However, due to the long downward cycle of real estate, it is temporarily classified as killing logic. It is very difficult to buy bottoms in the killing logic category, even if you put Some short-term stimulating factors have been thoroughly studied, and in the end it is difficult to resist the formation of a long-term downward consensus. The new coordinates are also companies that I have followed for a long time. Why have I followed them for so long? Because it is special and I can’t distinguish between categories, even if it has performance It has grown, valuations are still suppressed, and stock prices are still underperforming. And the long-term prospects are invisible to everyone, and new products are not changes that investors can control. Generally speaking, killing logic is the most difficult category to participate in, and participation must control the position. The killing logic of second-tier companies basically has no downward resistance, and such second-tier companies generally give up directly.
The third category is high-quality companies, but the market believes that there are hidden concerns about their growth, and the market valuation of such companies will not increase. The fourth category is the short-term changes I wrote, but the long-term imagination is insufficient. Their usual way of expression is to rise after a sudden change, and then fall back. The most important point here is the classification of the target. Don’t classify long-term targets into short-term and short-term into long-term, and part of fundamental analysis is used to solve the problems of classification and positions.
The fifth category is the category with the best stock price performance, because the long-term logic is not only not suppressed, but there is still room for imagination, and the short-term performance just happened to change, and the cycle and valuation trends went up together. And the seventh type of stocks with high valuation and high prosperity, I wrote a bearish article at the beginning, and they have fallen a lot. I don’t reject buying high “PE” stocks or even like high PE companies, because PE itself is used for valuation. Relatively weak, it represents the evaluation of the market, but individual stocks must be worthy of the evaluation it has received , reflecting the qualifications similar to Tencent in the early days, otherwise most individual stocks will either directly kill the valuation, or the more they grow, the more the valuation center will become. Low, choosing a company is not choosing a princess, not to mention the good companies we think are all subjective.
From the results of the above classification, the three most noteworthy points are classification, cycle, and valuation trend. The classification has been mentioned before and I won’t go into details. One is to pay attention to the business cycle of the company when doing fundamental research, not to predict short-term performance, but to grasp the general direction of the business situation for a period of time. I will cover a lot of industries. But they all have a relatively shallow understanding of their general location, and focus on research when the trough arrives, so I usually choose companies with poor performance in the past few years, rather than companies with rapid performance, just to improve efficiency. As for the valuation trend , in fact, itself and the business cycle will also be related, because the stock market itself will be reflected in the expected business cycle, and the performance reflected in the business cycle will also pull the imagination to spread to an optimistic or pessimistic level, so it is reflected upwards and downwards valuation trends.
Therefore, when choosing stocks, it is best to look as long-term as possible, with good logic, but not as the main purpose. The more negative factors are reflected in the moment, the better. This will form a node for the possibility of an upward trend in future valuations. . However, when the valuation trend is downward, for example, if the long-term logic is suppressed, it is easy to see a decline in performance growth and valuation, while companies with relatively floating valuations are prone to wipe out 2-3 years of performance when the valuation center drops. .
Whether it is value investing or subject matter hype, belief is needed. This belief does not mean foolish belief, but confident belief. What I hear most is that if you don’t buy, if you buy less, you can’t hold it . In the end, a person can only earn the money he believes in, and there is no need to be jealous of all kinds of big bull stocks. Even if you overturn it and start over again, few dare to go up in the early stage, and even fewer can sit still. What really needs to be reflected is the loopholes in the fundamentals . When the enterprise is running in the middle, it needs to rely on the understanding of the fundamentals to support the breakthrough . For example, I am not suitable for subject matter at all. Even if I choose the biggest subject matter, the hottest faucet, and the most comfortable trigger point every time, the final contribution to the net worth is only 1-2%. , It is mainly related to the growth environment, personality, etc., so everyone must choose the one that best suits their personality, values, and actual living environment.
I have written so many “smart doors” about the analysis cases of mid-line enterprises. I hope it can help me with some blind spots that everyone has, and I can also have corresponding decisions and plans for the enterprises I own. But it is a pity that “smart door” is still a last resort to adapt to the market environment. From the beginning to the end, I still haven’t really opened the avenue of investment. The avenue is always simple. The little story of Xue’s original intention, Fisher when he was a child: “I can also buy a company’s stock to share its future profits.” ( CxEric’s Fisher’s Notes ) Although the real road is more difficult, but still use this Just aiming for the goal requires some pure thinking, deep business insight, extremely strong patience, a calm state of mind, and a suitable opportunity .
Finally, I will take out a passage from Li Lu who summarized the same thing last year again. I hope that everyone will have their own internal score card and move towards their own goals and methods. There is no need to increase in value to maintain what they can’t have. Worry and stress . Or as one of my friends said, she doesn’t like to move forward very much, she wants to rest, and it’s okay to live her own life . Some people like money, some people love power, some people desire freedom, and some people I like music, beautiful scenery and nature.
YQ will come to an end in 2023, and the impact of Europe and the United States is close to the moment when the answer is revealed. The stock market does not need to predict, just watch as you go, if there are low points next year and there are companies worth studying, then you can start to seize the opportunity. I hope that my two years of enterprise real analysis case classification and retrospective insights will be beneficial to everyone.
#2022Investment Summary# @ @今日话话$ Gree Electric (SZ000651)$ $New Coordinates(SH603040)$ $Tencent Holdings(00700)$
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