In October 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued new restrictions on China’s technology exports, mainly targeting DRAM chips and NAND flash memory chips. The scope includes the production of DRAM chips of 18nm or below, NAND flash memory chips of 128 layers or above, and logic chips of 14nm or below.
This means that the development of China’s memory chip manufacturers is hindered, but on the other hand, it also shows that China’s memory industry is developing rapidly, and its international status cannot be ignored. How to work together as one to deal with the challenges brought about by the escalation of sanctions and seize the opportunities that should be seized is the problem that China’s storage industry needs to face at present.
From December 29th to 30th, the 2022 Global Memory Industry Innovation Forum (GMIF) was held in Shenzhen. The theme of the forum was “Demand Driven, Converged Innovation”. Many storage companies discussed global memory innovation, development and ecological construction.
The site of the Global Memory Industry Innovation Forum (GMIF2022)
At the forum, representatives of upstream and downstream enterprises in the storage industry chain agreed that the future development of the domestic storage industry will continue to face a shrinking market, but the market demand for storage will always exist. Although the trend of anti-globalization is a foregone conclusion, but Storage companies can also seize policy opportunities, meet customer needs, strive for innovation, and achieve product iteration.
The market size is shrinking, and it is expected to pick up in the second half of 2023
In the past year, the life of the semiconductor industry has not been easy. Investment and financing have been cold, and the entire industry has entered a downward cycle. The cold air has passed from terminal manufacturers to the upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain.
Lin Zhangde, director of Foxconn Technology Group’s Global Procurement Division, said that Foxconn’s OEM business has a yearly turnover of about 1 trillion yuan, and its performance in the first ten months of the past year still hit a record high. The economic impact has also declined.
Han Bingdong, Vice President of Innogrid Sales, said that Innogrid, as a memory controller chip design company and an industry participant, can feel the decline in demand in the entire industry and the fluctuations in the upstream and downstream of the industry.
Lu Xinrong, senior vice president of Starchip Technology Marketing, also said that the company has a strong sense of the decline in market demand in the past year. Chips, as the most upstream of the entire consumer electronics industry, have experienced a sharp decline in market prices due to shrinking demand, and the storage industry is just in a period of volatility. In the trough, many companies have to struggle.
Although the entire storage industry is facing the problem of shrinking market size and declining performance, the confidence of business representatives in the face of future development is still only increasing.
Lin Zhangde predicts that the market size of the memory industry will continue to shrink in 2023, and there will be no signs of recovery until the second half of the year.
Yingren Technology is a rare exception in this cold winter. In the case of the entire industry’s downturn in 2022, it will still achieve a growth rate of more than 100%. Because of this, Han Bingdong believes that the demand for the storage industry will always exist, and the market will continue to grow. Changes have given domestic memory manufacturers who were not in a dominant position the opportunity to change the industrial structure, extend to the upstream of the industry, and make newer and more market-influential products. “Although the market demand is not strong, the overall shipments of mid-to-high-end products are still stable.”
“Now it is a stage of bottoming out and rebounding. Companies that can survive this stage can get real orders, have more core values, and go further in the future. We believe that the turning point of the entire industry will be in 2024 years.” Zhang Zhe, deputy general manager of Jiahe Jinwei, said.
Netac, which has been in the storage industry for more than 20 years, has become accustomed to industry fluctuations and has formed its own methodology. Lou Zhendan, President of Netac Operations, said that the fluctuation of market demand is a problem that a long-term developing company should face. For a company, when the market demand declines, it should devote more energy to research and development and develop new products and markets.
“In the short term, everyone will suffer fluctuations in small batches, but this will not become the norm. If companies want to survive, they must have core R&D capabilities in order to make changes. Consumer products are highly sensitive to the market, and developing enterprise-level products is even more difficult. It can maintain the company’s stable growth.” Lou Zhendan explained.
Adapt to the tide of anti-globalization and seize policy opportunities
After more than 70 years of development, the global semiconductor industry has formed an upstream and downstream industrial chain of global division of labor and cooperation sanctions. Both domestic and foreign companies have customers and markets from all over the world. World cooperation.
However, under the influence of geopolitics, companies have to adapt to the wave of anti-globalization. “This fragmented situation is very harmful to our industry, but as practitioners, we need to be soberly aware of this. Geopolitics is inevitable and getting worse. Therefore, from the perspective of our own construction, we It needs to be more diversified, more technologically independent, and increase the ability to resist risks.” Lu Xinrong said.
However, in the face of challenges from the world and the market, companies do not fight alone. Both the country and the local government have corresponding policy support to help companies that are committed to making good products.
Academician Pan Yi of the School of Computer Science and Control Engineering, Shenzhen University of Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences said at this forum that in 2022, Shenzhen has successively introduced various new industrial policies such as “20+8”. To create a better business environment for the semiconductor memory industry, the information industry has tenacious endogenous power and development resilience, and plays a vital role in the prosperity of the information industry.
Zhou Shengming, honorary president of the Shenzhen Semiconductor Industry Association, also said that Shenzhen’s integrated circuit policy is about to be introduced, and opinions are already being solicited. It is expected to increase investment in manufacturing, and several 12-inch manufacturers are planning. “Shenzhen’s storage industry occupies an important share. Shenzhen is home to more than a dozen flash memory companies, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan.” Zhou Shengming said.
In addition, counting from east to west is also a national project that storage companies can focus on participating in.
Lou Zhendan said that at present, Netac has directly participated in the country’s east-to-west calculation project, and plans to build a data center in Shaoguan. In the future, it will be helpful in ensuring security, realizing localization, and balancing business development.
“We can not only rely on consumer products to achieve profitability, but enterprise-level projects will also contribute revenue. In addition, data center products will not be built at one time, and have a limited lifespan. They are basically updated every three years. The consumption is huge and sustainable. Business.” Lou Zhendan added.
“Understanding policies, mastering policies, and applying policies, specifically, is to see clearly the direction of policy development, combine our own strengths and our own concerns, and make good use of policies. I believe that we have no shortage of ideas in terms of policy guidance. What is lacking is how to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. What we practitioners need to do is to make some competitive products down-to-earth to provide support for the implementation of the policy.” Lin Zhangde said. (Leifeng.com)
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