$Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong(TIAA041001)$
It is 2023, and we will talk about the weekly strategy directly.
1. A “good start” is of great significance
Looking back on the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up in all four trading days of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.21%. Although the ChiNext Index had an adjustment on Wednesday, it also closed up 3.21% throughout the week. The atmosphere and expectations of the entire market have emerged. Significant changes have been made (Wind, 2023.01.06).
For a long time, we have analyzed the basic situation of the seven aspects of investment,
1. From a fundamental point of view, even on January 6, 2023, the TTM valuation of the CSI 300 is only 11.63 times (Wind, 2023.01.06), which is 24.72% of the historical percentile (Wind, 2005.04.08 -2023.01.06), the high probability is still below the center, in the bottom area.
2. From the perspective of policy, it is a consensus from top to bottom to strive for the economy in 2023;
The support for the real economy, including the capital market, seems to be positive whether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy.
3. From a technical point of view, the simplest point is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will fall for two consecutive years in 2021 and 2022. Historically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has not experienced a three-year consecutive decline (the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (000300.SH) range Change: -5.20% Wind, 2021.01.04-2021.12.31;
Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (000300.SH) interval rise and fall: -21.63%, Wind, 2022.01.04-2022.12.30);
It has been more than 22 months since the adjustment from the highest point of 5930.91 points on February 18, 2021. According to the lowest point of 3495.95 points on October 31, 2022, the maximum decline in the range is about 41.1%. The time is long and the adjustment is relatively large ;
In terms of technical graphics, the CSI 300 has stood on the 30-week line this week. (Wind, 2023.01.06)
4. In terms of funds, after the continuous shrinkage in December, the first four trading days of 2013, the transaction volume of the two cities continued to increase moderately, and by January 6, the daily transaction value of the two cities rebounded to 838 billion ;
In terms of foreign capital, Beijing capital has continued to flow in since mid-December, with a single-day inflow of 13.594 billion yuan on January 5; everything seems to have better expectations. (Wind, 2023.01.06)
5. In terms of fund managers (companies), public and private equity funds may be more optimistic about investment opportunities in 2023, and high positions have become a consensus. According to the news from the Shanghai Securities News on January 4, the latest data show that by the end of 2022, the overall position of private equity has risen to more than 80%, and the position of partial equity active public equity funds has also remained above 80%.
6. In terms of sentiment, in general, the market is relatively more optimistic about 2023. After a week of “good start”, pessimism may gradually become overly optimistic.
7. Another aspect is the industry aspect, which mainly involves the choice of investment direction. This part will be discussed later in the investment layout.
Judging from the above seven aspects, even the most unfavorable emotional aspect has gradually begun to show positive changes, and the future is worth looking forward to.
2. Whether there will be phased adjustments
So will the market choose to go all the way up?
At present, it is still unknown. This kind of short-term trend has a lot of contingency and suddenness, but we must also respect some basic laws and common sense, such as repeated shocks and adjustments in certain positions.
Hang Seng Index (Flush, 2022.01.01—2023.01.06)
Let’s look at the Hang Seng Index. We can clearly see that the index is between 20,000 and 22,000 points. 21396.09 points, there may be a certain probability of adjustment (Wind, 2023.01.05).
Shanghai Composite Index (Flush, 201.05.01—2023.01.06)
Similarly, we see that the Shanghai Composite Index has also formed a technical platform around 3200-3400 points. The latest small adjustment is that after the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3226.08 points on December 7, 2022, there was a callback (Wind, 2022.12.07 ).
Combined with the relatively sluggish trading volume at present, the Hong Kong stock market and the Shanghai stock market have rebounded relatively quickly, especially the Hang Seng Index. It seems that the market is almost meaningless if it wants to break through the technical platform. The probability of a proper consolidation and shock is not small.
However, don’t be too pessimistic. We think that this is likely to be just a small adjustment and change of hands, so that the unsteady chips will withdraw. 2022 has passed. In 2023, when the economy is going all out, why do we have reason to be pessimistic?
3. How to deal with it and how to arrange it
Weekly review can help us improve our sensitivity and constantly think about the direction of investment and coping strategies. The advantage of this is that on the one hand, regular thinking and review can maintain our sensitivity to the market and timely Discover major opportunities and risks accurately, and then make correct decisions, including the control of overall positions, the allocation of specific industry directions, etc.;
On the other hand, this can also force yourself to be more diligent, force yourself to sit down to think and communicate, and sharpen your tools beforehand.
After the review this week, we have the following thoughts on response and layout.
1. In the position, look for the correct decision with a high probability. How to allocate positions in this position at present involves different styles of each person. Based on the medium and long term, from our analysis, we can consider being more active here. On the basis of risk control, we can combine our own investment needs. Participate or increase positions appropriately.
Why such an analysis result?
At the beginning of the article, we reviewed the CSI 300 on January 6, 2023, with a TTM valuation of 11.63 times (Wind, 2023.01.06), which is 24.72% of the historical percentile (Wind, 2005.04.08-2023.01.06) , in the current position, the probability of extreme situations is relatively small.
Compared with the worst scenario, the probability and trend of the market upward, as well as the potential space and the space for the long-term growth of the performance of high-quality companies, are undoubtedly greater.
Therefore, in this position, on the basis of risk control, appropriate participation or increased position participation can be considered.
2. In which direction is the layout?
Regarding the direction of the layout, I actually said it quite clearly in the live broadcast “Return to Fundamentals, 2023 Investment Strategy Interpretation” on the evening of January 4th. There is a high probability that there will be no industry-related main line in 2023, but Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have a relatively high probability of running out of positive returns, changing the decline of the past two years, especially Hong Kong stocks, which are facing improvement in liquidity at the denominator end and facing improvement in the performance of listed companies at the numerator end.
In terms of industry segments,
1. Medicine and medical care need to be paid attention to. The substantial increase in the aging population is the biggest logic, and the second is that there is enough time and space for adjustment.
2. The logic of hard technology, including new energy, chip semiconductors and military industry, is the need of the times. If the Chinese economy wants to make a breakthrough, it must go to the next level in the direction of hard technology. This is the main line of the times and the current economic development of China. mainline.
But the problem of hard technology is not without, that is, the time and space for adjustment seem to be insufficient, which is a contradiction.
3. Including the basic consumption of CSI agriculture and consumption dividends, we are not very optimistic about the consumption direction of the mass consumption. The decline of the consumption population is an irreversible flaw, but we are optimistic about both ends, one end is mid-to-high-end consumption, and this part of consumption will recover After that, it will continue to grow continuously;
The other end is agricultural products. With the rapid withdrawal of rural labor force and the domestic substitution of seed industry, there may be a long-term investment opportunity in the agricultural direction.
Let’s stop talking about the direction of Hong Kong stocks, it’s been said a lot.
In fact, these main directions are also our views for a long time in 2022, and there has not been much change;
In the future, according to the ups and downs of different subdivisions, the market may have more clear and long-term opportunities, and then make adjustments.
Let me just say one more thing. Investors are too pessimistic about real estate. Maybe the worst time for fundamentals has passed. Don’t be too persistent or prejudiced. We have been negative about real estate for a long time From my point of view, but this time, at least temporarily, real estate may have a certain chance of a reversal of the predicament.
Investors are also too pessimistic about securities companies. Judging from the current position and valuation of securities companies, securities companies may perform better when the market is gradually improving.
In terms of Xinchuang, it is mainly the substitution and independent development of domestic software. From a technical point of view, after the CSI data peaked in June 2015, it has gone on a downward trend for several years. Is there a chance? I can look forward to it. (CSI data (930902.CSI) range highest price day: 2015.06.03, Wind, 2015.06.01-2023.01.06).
4. How to decide the investment of positions and spare money?
Regarding the position, we believe that we can be positive and optimistic when the risk is under control. However, this risk is controllable and there are thousands of people. I still hope that everyone can make reasonable investments based on their family, age, and income and expenditure status. , Therefore, the principle is to invest with spare money. Don’t invest if you don’t have spare money. Don’t take risks to gain profits.
As for investment decisions, if you are willing, you can follow the investment fund investment advisory portfolio, or you can refer to the holdings of Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying, or Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong and other fund investment advisory portfolios with a lower risk level. Under the circumstances, my family must invest 3,000 yuan in Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying every week, and 800 yuan in Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong;
In the future, with the development of the market, according to the changes in opportunities and risks, we will give reminders, and my family will make actions such as doubling, suspending fixed investment, or adjusting positions and locking in profits.
This week, I will review these, the core point of view:
1. The market is full of resilience, and the medium and long-term upward trend is relatively obvious;
2. In the short term, both the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index may enter the shock range;
3. On the whole, it is positive and feasible at the moment, and my family will maintain a certain position;
4. We are still relatively optimistic about medium and long-term investment opportunities in hard technology, medicine and medical care, basic consumption, and outstanding Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong and US stocks;
5. Monday is still the day when Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Niannianhong will vote.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee investors’ income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy instructions, fully understand the details of the portfolio and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio is in line with their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment goals. Investors should follow the principle of “buyer is responsible” when investing in fund investment advisory portfolio strategies. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operating characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment advisory portfolio strategies, investors should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own conditions. Combination strategies, cautiously make investment decisions, and independently bear investment risks. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee a certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The risk characteristics of fund portfolio strategies are different from those of individual fund products. The past performance of investment advisory services does not indicate its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. #Fund Creator Incentive#
@大徐子@李海斌感感数据数据@基金复基金@Ricky @ izhifu @库牛MR. He Yin
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