After reading the annual thinking of Ruijun Assets, we have many similarities in focus, such as: concerns about consumption decline caused by population issues; optimistic about new energy operators, etc. However , he has a different view from Mr. Dong on the issue of replacing old and new energy sources. Let me start with the conclusion: coal and oil are still irreplaceable for a long time.
1. When we talk about the replacement of new energy, we must have the concept of capacity . In 2021, the national wind power utilization hours hit a record high of 2246; in the same year, the photovoltaic utilization hours were 1160; and the annual 8760 hours. The defect of utilization hours determines the upper limit of the capacity of photovoltaic and wind power.
With the concept of capacity, the upper limit of the proportion of new energy can be roughly calculated, that is, the lower limit of the base load of coal or natural gas can be roughly calculated. With the concept of capacity, I believe there will be no prediction of “Europe becoming a global power price depression”.
2. The data released by China’s electric power industry has a high degree of transparency and credibility. Therefore, it is not difficult to require proof of a data. Mr. Dong Chengfei assumed that “150GW of wind and light corresponds to 390 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity”. According to the highest utilization hours of wind power in the country in 2021, 2260, photovoltaics are calculated according to 1160 hours in the same year. Assuming that photovoltaic and wind power are divided in half (the actual installed capacity of wind power is less than that of photovoltaics), 150G wind and photovoltaic power generation will be 256.5 billion, which is 133.5 billion kWh worse than the assumed 390 billion. Even with the increase in hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass energy, I am afraid that thermal power will still be needed.
3. We cannot talk about coal or coal electricity without the concepts of quantity and price, which are a dynamic process. To give a simple example, the current market coal price of 5,500 kcal in Qinhuangdao is 1,200 yuan. If the average price of the whole market is 720 yuan/ton according to the long-term agreement, will the coal output be less than today? I think this should be beyond doubt. After deducting the freight, coal from Xinjiang cannot reach Qinhuangdao, and there are many poor mines that are unprofitable. In addition, the increase in resource costs and construction costs has virtually pushed up the price.
It is hoped that the price of energy will be low and the supply must be guaranteed. What China cannot do, the world can hardly do.
4. When talking about China’s energy peak, we must not forget that the starting point of Asian, African and Latin American countries is still very low, and they cannot live without the support of energy if they want to live a good life. Today’s India is just like China’s take-off 20 years ago, and its other brothers in Asia, Africa and Latin America are growing rapidly, and the economy is just emerging. The demand for energy is even greater than that of China 20 years ago.
Up to now, China’s new energy installed capacity accounts for 40% of the world’s share, and China’s population and GDP account for about 18% of the world’s share. China’s power supply construction is also at the forefront of the world, and it may take a generation to catch up with the Asian, African and Latin American brothers in power supply construction. Taking China’s possible peak time to speculate that the global peak will be one year later lacks objective data support.
5. Affected by factors such as the improvement of coal mine construction standards and inflation, the unit investment in new mines continues to increase, and the investment in new coal mine projects in 2022 is about three times that of 2012. In addition: the depletion of low-cost coal resources cannot be ignored. Sichuan, Chongqing and other provinces were coal-rich provinces ten years ago, and Northeast China and Shandong were sufficient five years ago. Now they all need the support of other brother provinces.
While we are optimistic about new energy, we are also optimistic about old energy . The above immature views hope that friends who pay attention to traditional energy and new energy will collide.
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