The market has experienced two years of turbulence in 2021 and 2022, and it is currently in the stage of the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull. The past two years have been accompanied by many complicated events, but for the market, it may not be so complicated. The core is still expensive or cheap. The infinite vision of the future two years ago and the extreme pessimism two years later are actually the result of extreme human emotions. Two manifestations.
Two years ago, it was the craziest period in the market in recent years. That period was also a period when most stocks were overvalued. Fall to the bottom and reach the extreme at the end of April and the end of October 2022. Similarly, the market valuation in 2022 has reached a very cheap range, which also means that the yield of the market will generally rise next, so 2023 is a year worth looking forward to.
In 2023, we will still adhere to the main line of technological growth, and new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing, aerospace and other sectors will still be our core directions. In the past two months, the consumption, Internet, and financial sectors of the traditional white horse have performed well, while the growth sector has been relatively flat, which seems to make people lack confidence.
First of all, from the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2022, traditional areas such as consumption, Internet, and finance have fallen more deeply and for a longer period of time during this period, which makes the stock prices of these companies the earliest to need to repair . From the beginning of 2021, this group of stocks began to decline, and the decline in the next two years was huge. For example, Internet leader Tencent has fallen from a high of 711 to a low of 188 within two years, a drop of 73.5%, which is even worse than most Internet companies; in terms of consumption, taking Haitian Flavor Industry as an example, it fell from a high of 152.14 to a low of 59.46 two years ago. The biggest drop was 60.9%. Except for Moutai, the leaders in various industries generally fell by more than 50%. In the financial field, taking Ping An as an example, it fell from a maximum of 89.92 to 35.90, with the largest drop of 60%. In terms of growth leaders, new energy, photovoltaics, etc. Leading companies take Ningde Times and Longji as examples. In 2019-2021, the growth rate is much higher than that of the above-mentioned industry leaders. The highest declines in the past two years are about 49% and 46% respectively. Although everyone may not have enough confidence in new energy at present, from the process point of view, they are indeed the companies with less decline and shorter decline time among the leaders of major sectors in the bear market in the past two years. Let’s think back to October last year, at that very panic moment, Tencent fell by 22.8%, Moutai fell by 28.2%, and Ningde fell by 6.99%. What about the feared Tencent, Moutai and other targets? Or can you hold the high position steadily after buying the bottom? So there is no need to envy this short-term income gap. The first rebound of these sectors is mainly due to the depth and length of the decline in the past two years, rather than the fact that the fundamentals are better than the growth of technology.
Second, every bull market growth will not be absent, and it will always have more stamina and the largest increase, but it is often not the first performance, which requires us to maintain concentration. Take the bull market from the end of 2012 to 2015 as an example. At the end of 2012, big blue chips such as Minsheng Bank and Industrial Bank started a wave of rises of more than 50% within two months, and the leading white horse even more than doubled. The growth stocks of the small and medium-sized boards and the ChiNext only followed the rise of the blue chips and did not have a more eye-catching performance. However, after the sharp rise of these blue chips in 2013, the growth stocks of the small and medium-sized enterprises started to increase by multiples in two years. , as crazy as Dongfang Fortune back then, riding on the wind of Internet finance, it rose 68 times in two and a half years (after reinstatement), and in the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, ten times stocks abound, so what about the blue chips that started first? Only during the frenzied phase of the market in 2014 and 2015, there was a general increase, and the overall increase was far behind that of growth stocks. In the 2016-2018 calf market, the so-called beautiful 50s shined brilliantly. Now many of the traditional white horses we mentioned were growth stocks with very good growth during that period. Generally outperformed the market. We are more familiar with 2019-2021. During the first wave of rebound in 2019, the SSE 50, which is dominated by traditional white horses, rebounded the fastest, and the traditional white horses performed well throughout 2019, but there is no doubt that in the past three years, new energy led The overall rate of return of growth companies far exceeds that of traditional white horse stocks, and they will still have a certain return in 2021 when white horses in traditional industries fall sharply. So don’t deny the excellent growth opportunities because of the high elasticity of the traditional sectors in the past few months due to the huge decline. On the contrary, these traditional sectors stand firm and strengthen, which just means that the bear market is gradually ending and the bull market is slowly coming. Growth opportunities with more stamina are in There is more space in the present moment .
Third, from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation and growth, technological growth is also more attractive than the traditional white horse, which is currently a hot spot . This has always been the core of our choice of this direction. An obvious comparison, on January 11, the Ministry of Public Security disclosed that in 2022, the number of motor vehicles in the country will be 417 million, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 13.1 million, that is, only one of the 33 vehicles will be a new energy vehicle. If such a market Everyone is worried that there will be no development. Then I think that the smartphones that everyone has, the Tencent WeChat that everyone uses, and the liquor, soy sauce, and paper towels that have already entered thousands of households… let alone have much room for growth. The general growth rate of Tencent, Moutai, and Ping An has dropped to single digits, and the relatively good ones can still maintain a growth rate of more than ten percent. However, in terms of the development of 2022, the emerging fields we hold will generally maintain 50%+ growth. In addition, from the perspective of valuation, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of CATL has dropped to about 25pe in 2023, with an expected growth rate of more than 50%, and LONGi has dropped to about 15pe, with an expected growth rate of more than 30%. If Moutai maintains a growth rate of 15% this year, then the dynamic price-earnings ratio will be 35pe. Tencent’s business development has stagnated in the past two years. We are optimistic that with the economic recovery in the future, there will be a growth rate of 15% this year, so the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is 20pe. Of course, investors who are familiar with the development of these industries will realize that the first two forecasts here are conservative forecasts, while the last two are optimistic forecasts. Even if they are treated differently, they can still find that emerging technology growth leaders are more cost-effective. That may also be why they have fallen less over the past two years.
Fourth, the new industrial bubble is in the ascendant, and the opportunity lies in the mass innovation sector after the registration system . From the perspective of historical experience, each round of bull market will be accompanied by some emerging industry bubbles, such as the bull market from the end of 2012 to 2015 mentioned above, benefiting from the Internet finance of the East Fortune, benefiting from the development of smart phones, Apple industry chain, etc.; 2019 —The 2021 bull market, a large number of companies benefited from the great development of new energy; a little earlier, the 2004-2007 bull market, global growth companies in the Internet and smartphone fields have achieved huge gains… If we really stand at the starting point of a new bull market , there will also be some emerging industries that will get the dividend of an industrial bubble. This is also our strengthening of stock selection in the mass innovation sector after registration. For example, BLT, which we mentioned before, is currently the world’s number one company in the field of 3D printing, with good growth and a market value of 16.5 billion; Aerospace Hongtu, as the leader of aerospace software systems, can be understood as an ios system in the satellite field, with high growth potential and a current market value of 16 billion. These types of companies may be modest at the moment, but they have enormous potential. But at the same time, since these new industries and companies are still in the early stages of development, their fundamentals are relatively unstable, so they should be relatively dispersed and cautious in allocation. We pay attention to these opportunities because any big bull stocks and great companies we are familiar with now grow up from small companies, and bull markets often give these small companies a certain amount of industrial bubbles in the industry, so that these The company can further finance and expand, and gradually move towards the top of the new wave. Although they are not hot spots in the market now, they have the potential of five times ten times or even higher.
Although in the short-term market comparison, the rebound of growth stocks so far is not impressive, but I believe this investment direction can stand the test. Recently, the Ningde era has stepped out of the bottom and gradually raised, hitting new highs for the stage. It has gradually stepped out of a good bottom area. Ningde, as the leader of technological growth, is a very good signal.
In 2000, under the background of the bursting of the Internet stock bubble, Microsoft fell by 70% in one year. After bottoming out, it quickly doubled within a few months. Perhaps at that time, many investors were still expecting the kings of the old era to come out of the magnificent market again. In fact, they did come out, but only after more than ten years. Against the background that the kings of the old era have been silent for several years, it is the decade when instant messaging, e-commerce, search engines and even smart phones have begun to leap forward. Many small and unknown companies have become kings of the new era.
In 2023, are we still looking forward to the king of the old era? No, we have something more to look forward to.
$CATL(SZ300750)$ $BLT(SH688333)$ $LONGi Green Energy(SH601012)$
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