core point of view
Under the background of energy transition and geopolitics, traditional energy is expected to usher in a revaluation. Traditional energy still has an irreplaceable position in the era of my country’s energy transformation. Under the background of accelerated transformation of energy structure, traditional energy capital expenditure is insufficient. In the medium and long term, the supply of traditional energy represented by crude oil is shrinking, and the prosperity is expected to be maintained. Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the global geopolitical situation has continued to be tense, and the oil price center has risen sharply. In the short term, the demand for crude oil is under pressure due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, but the OPEC+ production reduction plan has maintained a balance between supply and demand in the crude oil market. In 2023, oil prices are expected to stay high. Natural gas is a clean fossil energy and an important transition energy under the goal of “carbon neutrality”. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s natural gas production and sales are expected to continue to grow. Since the beginning of this year, geopolitics has driven significant changes in the global natural gas trade pattern. Gazprom withdrew from Europe, and European LNG imports have increased significantly. However, the hidden danger of insufficient LNG import facilities still exists, and European natural gas may run at high prices.
The pace of new energy development is accelerating, focusing on new energy materials such as EVA, POE, soda ash, and diaphragms. my country’s coal is used for a relatively high proportion of combustion power generation. Coal-fired power generation is the main source of carbon emissions. Replacing direct coal combustion and coal power generation is the only way for my country to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality. Under the “Double Carbon” goal, the pace of large-scale development of renewable energy in my country is accelerating. (1) The installed capacity of photovoltaics is growing rapidly, and the demand for EVA is expected to increase significantly; (2) The demand for photovoltaic glass is released intensively, driving the growth of upstream demand for soda ash; (3) The demand for POE photovoltaics is growing rapidly, and domestic substitution is expected to break through. In terms of lithium batteries, the market concentration of the diaphragm industry continues to increase, and the leading effect is significant. Among the four major materials of lithium batteries, the diaphragm technology threshold is the highest, the expansion period is long, and the profitability is also the strongest. In the next four years, the profits of leading enterprises will continue to be released.
Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, Europe is in short supply of natural gas, and attention should be paid to the main lines of European chemicals, fertilizers and pesticides. Natural gas is crucial to the production of chemical products in Europe. The shortage of natural gas will cause a double blow to the production of chemical products. One is that the production process will lack sufficient energy, and the other is that the manufacture of products will lack key raw materials. European chemical products account for a large proportion of production capacity. The supply may be tense. It is recommended to pay attention to the vitamins, polyurethane, methionine, anti-aging additives and other sectors with a large proportion of production capacity in Europe. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has directly led to restrictions on grain planting, production, and export in Russia and Ukraine, which in turn pushed up the prices of agricultural products represented by grain. In the context of high food prices, farmers will increase their willingness to plant, and correspondingly, the demand for agricultural materials will increase, and chemical fertilizers and pesticides will maintain a relatively high level of prosperity.
Domestic substitution urgently needs to be accelerated, focusing on semiconductor materials and OLED organic material sectors. As far as semiconductor materials are concerned, although the U.S. Chip Act has intensified the restrictions on the advanced manufacturing process in mainland China, mainland China has made significant progress in the mature process-related semiconductor material sector. The development of domestic semiconductor material enterprises matches the construction progress of mainland wafer foundries, which will further accelerate the replacement process of domestic semiconductor materials. For OLED organic materials, with the production capacity construction and yield improvement of domestic panel factory OLED production lines, my country will become the world’s largest OLED panel supplier. After several years of continuous R&D investment, domestic companies have finally broken the foreign monopoly in OLED terminal materials. Under the expectation of rapid increase in OLED panel shipments, domestic OLED organic materials will also usher in a large-scale volume.
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