Before you know it, the Year of the Rabbit is coming. First of all, I wish all friends of Lao Du auspicious Year of the Rabbit and a prosperous stock market.
In the past period of time, the market performance has been good. I believe that everyone has achieved more or less benefits. Congratulations to everyone!
Let’s sort out the key points discussed with everyone in the live broadcast:
(1) Industrial Internet (heavy warehouse) : Compared with the star-studded sea of industrial product transactions, the current digital trade level of the Industrial Internet is still in its infancy. The barriers to industrial Internet transactions lie in price advantages and capital turnover, as well as the credit endorsement of listed company platforms. We are interested in whether a business model similar to that of Pinduoduo in the consumer sector can emerge in the industrial sector, and we are interested in accompanying the company’s growth in the research. However, the B-side business is different from the C-side after all, and it also poses new challenges to our ability to track and conduct in-depth research.
On behalf of the company, based on the PE level in the past five years, it is still in a very good position for cost performance.
(2) Medicine (standard configuration) : I have seen some during the live broadcast. There are three reasons for being optimistic about medicine in the medium and long term: first, the demographic dividend brought about by the aging of the population structure; The valuation advantage brought about by the adjustment. In terms of choosing a company, we still pay attention to the barriers of the company: innovative drugs depend on who has the most research and development funds and whether they have an international pattern; CXO depends on the growth rate of leading orders; traditional Chinese medicine depends on formulas and brands; Think Reproductive > Ophthalmology > Oral.
From the perspective of PBBand, a leading innovative drug (still in the stage of R&D investment, no profit, no way to see PE) and PEBand, a leading CXO, the valuation position is not high.
(3) Consumption (underweight) : Unfortunately, I made a mistake in my short-term judgment on consumption (again proving that short-term judgment is unreliable). One is that I think the consumption data in the fourth quarter must be very poor, and the other is that the valuation of leading food and beverage companies is not cheap, and the price/performance ratio is not high. However, Mr. Market does not seem to agree. Let’s speculate on the expectation of consumption recovery after the epidemic first, and put up the valuation first. As for whether the performance can be matched and digested, that is something to observe in 2023. However, I still suggest that you should not blindly chase consumer stocks, but friends who hold them can still hold them. From a longer-term perspective, consumption will always be the darling of the market. Friends who have not bought, don’t rush to chase, there must be a process of valuation drop, I have the patience to wait.
Judging from the valuation level of liquor leaders in the past five years, it is in a reasonably high position. You can hold it, but it is not recommended to increase your holdings here.
(4) Kechuang (standard configuration) . Science and technology stocks represented by chips and new energy have been left out by the market recently. Fundamentally, it is true that the chip inventory is high, and the demand for consumer electronics is sluggish, which needs to be digested; since the annual sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 30-40%, it is impossible for the industry to grow at the level of the past few years. . On the whole, the industry is still an incremental track, but it is facing a deep reshuffle. At the same time, the second-order growth rate of the industry is declining, and the capital market will kill the valuation.
Under this fundamental situation, why does Lao Du still insist that it should be given attention and standard equipment? There are two reasons: one is that the companies I like to invest in have particularly deep moats or high growth rates. Many companies in science and technology innovation are small in scale and growing rapidly, especially in the fields of chips, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, biomedicine and other fields supported by national strategies, which are rare incremental tracks. At present, most industries in China are already in the stage of stock competition. The second is that the valuation level is not bad. The valuation of the Science and Technology 50 Index is currently at the 16th percentile in history. Looking at the systematic bear market in 2022, 30 times the PE has been tested three times.
I think the reason for the temporary neglect of science and technology innovation is that the fundamentals are affected by the economy, and the Four Seasons Report predicts that there will be some corporate thunderstorms. Therefore, when science and technology innovation is in a downturn, moderate participation and a long-term perspective should be a good choice, but you need to wait patiently for the start.
(5) Chemical faucet (standard configuration) . This involves individual stocks, so I won’t talk much about it. The company is a powerful company, the only leader in the polyurethane industry in China, and basic chemical and new material innovations (such as POE) are also growing steadily. The growth in the next 3-4 years is very certain. In the further future, we need to see whether it can grow into a comprehensive chemical giant like BASF in Germany. However, it is useless to think too much about things that are too far away. First, make a comprehensive judgment on the situation in the next three years, as long as you are sure.
Judgment on the macro market:
The economic recovery in 2023 is a common expectation. Local enterprises are in tight finances. I believe that the problem will eventually be solved by printing money, but it is only a matter of degree. Therefore, in the context of recovery and not bad liquidity, the stock market will also have good opportunities in 2023. But I don’t see a bull market imminent:
First, the economic recovery should be a weak recovery. The accumulated impact of three years will not be completely resolved overnight, especially the restoration of confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the courage to invest and consume will take a process. Residents’ deposits are more than 110 trillion, which is almost catching up with the annual GDP. It will not be so easy to use this money for investment and consumption.
The second is that my country’s currency liquidity has maintained a good level in the past two years, so there will no longer be expectations of flooding, and the overall market valuation level is unlikely to exceed expectations.
The upward movement of the stock market should spiral upward under the logic of expectation-performance verification, re-anticipation-re-verification. If the stage has risen too much, we will take a break, or even adjust it, digest the valuation, and wait for the performance verification to start.
The current strategy of the fund managed by Lao Du is 70% of the basic position (increased from 50% in November last year to 70%). In the industries I covered above, wait for each fall, and gradually increase the position at a more reasonable valuation level. To full warehouse. If there is a misjudgment, for example, if there is a big bull market with great momentum, I can only bear the configuration of 70% stocks + 30% fixed income. desire. In fact, when I talked about “preparing for a new cycle” on the weekend of December 24, 2022, I already talked about the first opportunity to reverse the car to pick up people, and it was also at that time that I increased the position from 50% to 70%. I am now waiting for a second chance. I don’t know when it will happen. It may be soon, such as a week or two, or it may be slower. It has been rising continuously for several months, which is unpredictable. I am doing this kind of waiting based on my judgment on the macro and the companies I have studied. It is enough to pursue consistency in strategy, and I am not demanding on specific operational details in terms of tactics.
My original intention of running a fund is to fully consider the feelings of customers, not to pursue relative rankings (how much others earn has nothing to do with me), but to try to do things with high probability that I understand, to reduce large fluctuations as much as possible, and to pursue absolute returns. Since its establishment in February last year, it has achieved more than 26 points of excess returns relative to the CSI 300. Even in the difficult situation of the stock market in 2022, it still achieved positive returns. I will continue this style and accept the test of time.
Back in my hometown in Hefei, I tasted the dumplings made by my mother every year, and my favorite authentic Huangshan Maofeng. I feel that life is very beautiful. I hope that all friends will realize their ideals in the stock market and live a happy life!
Note: This article only represents personal views, and does not represent the views of the organization Gray Assets.
There are 44 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/8258019402/240010512
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.